I have to confess I’d be happier if I woke up tomorrow and MC was back in his natural stamping ground of foreign affairs and someone, I’ll take practically anyone, else was leader. He’s been in post for a year and bit now, and my personal view is that if he heads up a GE campaign, he’ll be awful. That’s a view I’ve held since before he became leader, and the most recent elections only serve to bolster it a little bit. I’ve cut him slack, I will continue to cut him
slack for another year, but the purpose of my post was to sound an alarm bell.I can perfectly understand your desire, and indeed the desire of the majority of the LD blogosphere to talk up the results, but statements like “on Thursday there were losses in some places, but gains in others” are, like James says, bordering on Blairite spin! In a major test of public opinion across the UK we lost four councils. Net, we lost hundreds of councillors. That’s a reversal of fortune, and it’s not a minor one. I don’t think anyone needs to get a grip, as I don’t think anyone is reading too much in to what happened yesterday - but that doesn’t mean that what happened yesterday wasn’t very serious.
In England, and to a lesser extent Wales, the momentum is with the Conservatives, and crucially - with David Cameron. Above all else, we discovered today that middle England is beginning to fall in love David Cameron, and it seems highly possible that at this point he’s doing the necessary things to walk up Downing Street to number 10 at the next election. Arguing that they should have achieved a couple of percentage points more than they did is folly when they’re ten points ahead of Labour in the polls, and nearly a thousand councillors up tonight.
Conversely, tonight indicates that middle England has not warmed to our leader. After his first full year as leader, he failed his first major electoral test (bearing in mind the caveats above). This firt electoral test seems to indicate that Ming Campbell is an electoral liability - not an asset. Tonight, the prospect of how the public will respond to our leader in a General Election is not a happy one. It seems likely that the party will allow Ming Campbell to stay in place to try a second electoral test next year - he won himself some significant political capital at the most recent party conference. Yesterday and today, he spent that capital. If he fails his next major electoral test, beyond doubt he will have to go. The challenge for Ming
himself tonight is to take a good hard look in the mirror, and decide whether he should jump before his party considers pushing him. He has to ask himself if, when the lights are on him in a General Election, the public will respond warmly to him and deliver the Liberal Democrats a boost in seats - or whether Cameron’s Tories will deliver us, and him, a brutal squeeze. I suspect that after the last fourty-eight hours, he knows the answer to that question.
10 comments:
You naughty, naughty boy.
IMO
The Lib/Dems have been going down the BBC road for 30 years. They have now come across a Conservative leader doing a better job at it, with a much bigger party behind him.
So the Lib/Dems are if fact completely BUGGERED. So they should not be to unhappy. However their days of increasing their vote has gone for a generation or so. Its got nothing to do with MC.
Cameron has the sense to realise that you cant win an election in Britain with the BBC chaseing your butt ANYMORE.
However its more serious then that.
Not only can you not win an election. You can NOT run the country without constant political and social unrest, even if you do win, without the BBC at least being placated.
This fact evidenced by riots in France only days after the BBCs favourite/beloved candidate lose.
In order for DC to do anything possitive as Britains PM, he has to keep All even slightly 'right wing'or libertarian policies as far up his sleeve as possible for as long as possible and keep smileing. Or BBC inspired socialist bricks will soon be flying though his and our windows.
Proof that David Cameron's attempts in the past year to woo liberals from the Lib Dems has succeeded.
I can't understand why people are so concerned that the Conservatives weren't two or three per cent up on last year. People moan that opinion polls are rubbish and that the only poll that matters is an election.
Cameron has reached 40% (beating Labour by 13/14%) in two successive local election campaigns. The people like him.
Thanks for the publicity!
there might be bit of whinging about Ming but, bad the English results were the fallout from Thursday seems to have hit the Welsh LDs hardest. The catfight started up there should be fun to watch.
I think in Wales the tories should be gunning hard for some of that soft LD support. Having got close to PC's vote share there should be every opportunity to battle for a big increase in Westminster seats.
Did they "flatline" with the same % vote as last year or did they go down?
Those of us who kicked the **** out of the Tories in our area of England under Cameron this year just as we did last year find this whole Ming thing rather amusing. We think that any of our colleagues who blame their leader, rather than looking a little closer to home, are a bit like the nutters who replaced George (not Ian, not Duncan) Smith with the critter from the deep.
I don't reckon that either Cameron or Ming (or Blair come to that) made a blind bit of difference to the voters who kicked out our local top Tory councillor and replaced him wirth a total 'rookie'.
All this massed 'debate' is for people who are not proper politicians and find life easier to talk about than to DO.
"Cameron has reached 40%"
. . .in a local election - worth about 35-36 per cent in a following General Election (to Tories) if you look at historic trends.
Heading for a well-and truly poorly-hung parliament.
anon may 7 7.56. Crawl back into your tiny little protected hole, and let the grown-ups get on with it.
For once, I find myself admiring Rob, although I find myself suspicious of his motives. Just as I found myself very suspicious of those who sought only to blame the leader in 2005 for the poor (and it was poor even by Hughes' prediction of maybe 70 odd seats so let's not pretend anymore) result in the General. There was an orchestrated whispering deflecting off the national campaign organisation for the Liberal democrats and onto the leadership. In reality campaigning structure and direction including 'tactics' are driven by one man and that is the Chief Execeutive and not the leader. In the past year there have been a number of people trying to ensure that the organisation of Ming's party is not run as an ego trip for one person, and yet poor results third year on the run, with a different leader suggests that it's the layer underneath that needs refreshing - for goodness sake look at the other messes the party struggles with to see that.
Yes Ming didn't do a great job. But that said those who pushed him in pushed him in as an answer to a question other people wanted to 'spin' away from themselves.
So Liberal Democrats don't need another scapegoat. They need to get rid of the dead wood once and for all. Once it's had its day its useless.
NB: "Suzblog" is not a Lib Dem blog!
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