One poll does not a Summer make. But if you're a Conservative you ought to buy The Guardian tomorrow. Their ICM poll gives the Conservatives their best showing for 15 years with 40%, Labour on 31% and the LibDems on 19%. If you're a Labour supporter you will be very worried by the fact that when people were asked how they would vote if it were Cameron v Brown, the Tories rose to 42%, Labour fell to 29% and the LibDems also fell by two points to 17%. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why the Labour leadership contest may not be quite the shoo-in that everyone thinks. One or two more polls like this and Labour MPs will be getting very twitchy. However, the Labour Party leadership rules only give MPs one third of the votes, so Brown may be safer than he would have been under a one member one vote system, or if only MPs had the vote.
Anyway, let's see if this trend is reflected in the next YouGov and Populus polls.