Saturday, February 13, 2010

Tory Lead Rises to 11% in ComRes Poll

The Tory lead is back up to 11 points in a ComRes poll for tomorrow's Independent on Sunday.

Conservative 40% (+2)
Labour 29% (-2)
Lib Dem 21% (+2)
Others 10% (-2)


Interestingly, and worryingly, only 44 per cent said they were "absolutely certain" to vote compared with 56 per cent in February 2005; similarly 18 per cent said that they were "certain not to vote", compared with 11 per cent five years ago.

That all points to a low turnout. However, when faced with the statement: "I think the result of the forthcoming general election will be close", 70% agreed, with 25 % disagreeing. That would indicate a higher turnout.

22 comments:

mhands1984 said...

If Andy Cooke's analysis on Political Betting is to be believed, then this could give a con majority (over Lab/Libs) of c.165

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/02/13/is-this-what-we-should-use-for-tonights-polls/

John R said...

But "UK Polling Report" still says it'll be a hung parliament with the Conservatives 5 short of an overall majority.

trevorsden said...

There is also a totally disgraceful leading question about Cameron as well, which a number of UKPR and PC.Com have pointed out.

“David Cameron is a slick salesman but I worry about what he is like underneath” — this is a serious question put by a polling organisation !!?? or what?

Who is in Charge at ComRes and just what Birthday Honour are they expecting from Brown?

I think Cook has a point. But I would still settle for anything over 30.

BTW
the real issue about the Brown Morgan interview is the admission that Brown has lied for years about the deal with Blair and the arguments they had. It would also seem the whilst things like foundations hospitals and Academy schools attracted huge bouts of temper, the invasion of Iraq left Brown struck dumb.

Andrew said...

This won't stop the BBC stating that "the gap is narrowing".

tao_taier said...

Are these polls done according to each riding?
It would lend to more accurate readings of the electorate. Which coincidentally wouldn't be far off the mark from what the poll above suggests.

I would like to think the conservative party will save your country from a hung parliament. Else at least have a decent set of opposition parties to work with.

With the situation they'd be inheriting you wouldn't want them to have to make too many compromises with fringe parties just to get stuff past. It would probably take years before being able to reverse much of the damage done by Brown's Labour with such limited elbow room.

In Canada, federally, our "loyal" opposition parties are a joke and the so called "libertarian" party is not only fringe but nearly act as a backup front group for the Liberals. (They even suggested a possible merge at one point.)

The conservative governing party is fine enough here but our opposition parties remain utterly atrocious. Tune in to question period on our parliamentary channel* sometime for an idea of what they have to put up with in over here.

*cpac.ca (canadian public affairs channel)

trevorsden said...

PS - as an aside the Telegraph (godblessem) are reporting
...the amazing news that
"£50m of Government's international aid budget spent in the UK " - things like "The Arcola Theatre Production Company in east London has received £241,500 over three years to set up a Capoeira youth performance group. "
Still if you are dead set on using immigration to socially engineer the country you have to follow through don't you?

...and less amazingly that
The Prime Minister wants to use the Budget as a political springboard for the election campaign by spicing it up with spending increases on voter-friendly areas such as schools and hospitals, and even the hint of tax reductions.
However, the Chancellor is holding out firmly against a "giveaway" package"

Frugal Dougal said...

What you say about people not viting is concerning - the election may well be decided by those who stay at home, as opposed to those who vote.

Harry Hayfield said...

My personal opinion is that we will see a large Con lead over Lab, with Lab and Lib Dems battling for second in the popular vote.

Iain, are there any more seats you can try for? I think that you should deserve a chance to go into Parliament if only to be able to say "I'm the second Iain who is a Conservative MP!"

Newmania said...

That will not please Norman Baker who told me last night he could support a Brown administration in the event of a hung Parliament he thought likely .In fact as far as I can gather his only problem is that Brown is not left wing enough

Tory Totty Online said...

Fingers crossed!!!!!

Andy JS said...

O/T:

Re. saving election night: some returning officers are deciding to take a defiant attitude such as Wallace Sampson in Harrogate who is refusing to count the votes on election night:

http://bit.ly/bXJumn

It's obvious that only a full change in the law will bring about the desired result. Hoping that returning officers will change of their own accord isn't going to happen.

Thatsnews said...

That will not please Norman Baker who told me last night he could support a Brown administration in the event of a hung Parliament

What on earth makes Norman Baker think that Gordon Brown would be allowed to remain as leader of the Labour Party should he win, lose or draw the election?

Dorian Smith said...

Funny how when the gap narrows it's reported on the BBC and when the Tories lead rises not a peep.

Moriarty said...

No mention of the extended Tory lead on Marr this morning. Perhaps he's taken a Nokia shaped blow to the head.

Moriarty said...

On the subject of Labour's own Bill Haydon-of-the-BBC I was impressed with the balance of view we were offered at the paper review. One self-regarding Leftie (Bakewell) neutralised by another even more self regarding Leftie (Thomas).

Mark Thomas was allowed to accuse Ashcroft of tax evasion-unchallenged. And he came out with the curious question: "Why should children be allowed to inherit their parents home?". Well Mark, because that's what a "will" is. Presumably Marr felt that Thomas' stupidity here was sufficiently selfevident as to require no challenge.

M said...

There is a long way to go before its in the bag for David Cameron because Labour are gearing up for their dirtiest general election campaign ever.

I predict that they will succeed in creating diversions so that they do not have to debate their useless policies and diabolic record in power by focussing on attacking individual members of David Cameron's team - picking them off one by one.

Labour will use these tactics to destroy the Tory vote.

Moriarty said...

@M

Fair enough but any prognosis is incomplete without mention of the Labour's media campaign arm: the BBC. To be fair to Sky they are all over the poll lead. It hasn't been mentioned on our impartial "public service" broadcaster.

Curbishlyauto said...

The lead rising is amazing considering the constantly negative stories against the Conservatives and positive stories aboout Brown/Labour by the Telegraph, Mail and BBC.

Unsworth said...

I watched that cretin Mark Thompson giving 'evidence' with his cohorts to the Public Accounts Committee on BBC Major Events the other day. The Committee utterly destroyed them. At one point Thompson was himself caught directly misleading (or 'lying to', as we like to say) the Committee about his own remuneration by Richard Bacon.

These guys are desperate to maintain the status quo (and their well rewarded sinecures). They will do anything it takes to ensure the continuance of a Labour government. Hardly surprising therefore that they somehow manage to 'overlook' this poll.

Moriarty said...

Did I really write a post that included the expression: "to be fair to Sky"? Having just watched George Osborne being "interviewed" by the deeply strange Tim Marshall I feel I must retract.

"He refuses to answer whether he's stopped beating his wife!!"

James Higham said...

Illusion, Ian because it is how the lead is spread, as you well know.

What we have here is the hijacked Cameron-Clarke Labour Clone Party, Labour itself and then the true Conservatives and how much of that 11% belongs to them?

boggartblog said...

It doesn't lok bad for the Lib Dems and having been active in the Libersal Party this ought to please me. A visit to one of the semi official LibDem blogs last week convinced me if Cleggie doen't grow some balls soon the party will be reduced to an irrelevant rump again.

If the party is going to castigate the conservatives for putting spin on official statistics and yet support Labour's claims to have made great improvements in crime, health, education and employment (all claims based on the spinning of statistics) they may as well just tell people to vote Labour