There seems to be a bit of a betting market developing on Labour's vote share in the Euro elections. Last time they got a miserable 22.5%. Until the last 24 hours Ladbrokes were quoting odds on bets that they would get more than 20% on 4 June. However, in the last few hours the odds have turned and they are now quoting odds on that they will get under 20%. Why? Apparently there have been a number of sizeable bets in that direction, including, I am told by someone in the know, from a number of Labour Party offices around the country! This is significant. If the battle weary troops around the country already see the writing on the wall it will be difficult for them to mobilise any sort of street campaigning at all.
Could Labour really come third?
35 comments:
Labour are doomed - DOOMED!
It would require a serious coordinated pincher movement by Tory/LDs.
The current thinking seems to be that for Labour to come in sub 150 seats is pretty unlikely - sub 200 could be possible if they carry on like this.
Either way - Labour will be scrabbling about trying to find anyone to be in their Shadow Cabinet at this rate.
Looks like Labour's Percentage of the vote is falling into the gutter like their campaign.
It has to be remebered in 2004 that Labour had postal voting only in Labour stronghold areas like Yorkshire! IIRC The North East as well and North West many of these areas with big Cities and Towns or former mining areas where the Labour vote was once weighed not conted!
Strangely enough Tory areas did not get all postal voting! Strange that! (Heavy Mock sarcasim!)
In the words of Dr Anthony king - It will be a dreadfull night for the Labour party!
One can only hope.
It's as much as Brown deserves and I think it would be interesting to see what the LibDems can do as her Majesty's Opposition.
I hope they come last!
Never believe what the bookies tell you. I tried to get £1000 on labour to score under 20% in the Euro-elections @ evens last night. After management meetings lasting 20 minutes, they allowed me £25. They said they'd phone me back this morning, after they'd spoken to their trader, and tell me how much more they'd allow me.
I've heard nothing, and BT have confirmed that my phone is in working order...
"Go Fourth"
That'll be another failed Labour Internet project, then.
I'm not entirely convinced it's legit for labour party members to bet on their own electoral failure - doesn't that smell of match-fixing?
Even a single cell creature realises we were sold down the river over the EU treaty.
Amoebas for UKIP! (no offense intended) Brainier types may wish to vote tactically.
Now this is where Labour made the mistake of not allowing prisoners the vote.
It serves Labour right.
But for the mess which is "Prisons With A Purpose Our Sentencing And Rehabilitation Revolution To Break The Cycle Of Crime - Security Agenda Policy Green Paper No4", published by the Conservative Party, I might have voted for the Tory party...
I just deleted an anoymous comment!
I'm Sooo naughty!
Look \/ trash can, delete me!
the next shadow cabinet will have a much more diverse makeup than the current Labour front bench. It will have to.
A lot of labours "unlosable seats" are populated with people on the left of the party. Home sec is dead electorally, she will prob lose by 5k, Purnell may be in trouble, and I fancy Balls for the Portillo moment
Im not suggesting that Dennis Skinner will be shadow chancellor but there will be some turn ups for the books.
If charles clarke didnt stand a good chance of losing his seat he'd prob be leader.
Let's hope the electorate also recognise all of the 'big 3' parties are absolutely committed to membership of the EU.
Mark
I wouldn't bank on it the LibDems are going to be squeeeeezed in areas where the Tories were second.
It wouldn't surprise me if they are back in the proverbial taxi.
Over 40,000 signatures now!
Labour will not come 3rd because the LDs and UKIP will also slip back as well. The interesting factor is whether Labour's vote is half that which the Conservatives get.
As the other Churchill would say,
"Oh Yes!"
They will get their arse kicked in the Euro elections. It will be a protest of course regarding:
No referendum
The recession
Smeargate
Gurkhagate
Government lies
Expense fiddling
Wasting our money
the soft police state/totalitarian behaviour
The Euro election system will really work against a party with a strong established base and low polling. The concern is the potential anti-EU vote between Libertas, UKIP and BNP. I suppose it is too much to hope that they come sixth.
Oh I do like reading good news...
who is "someone in the know"?
"Could Labour come third?"
There is surely no way UKIP, Jury and the Monster Raving Loony Party can do that badly, sixth would do!!
LA
Ho hum
I think I've lived this all before
The lib dems had an excellent chance to kill off Labour and become the second force in british politics in 1982/3 when the Labour party was split and Foot was in charge.
Instead of moving to the space vacated on the left they moved right and Labour survived.
Nick Clegg has all the signs of making the same mistakes.
I can see Labour being squeezed by the Lib Dems in the coming year. The question is have the Lib Dems got the killer instinct this time ?
Given the nature of the british election system once number 3 has moved to number 2 in a constituency he sort of stays there as the best chance to keep the other lot out ( tactical voting etc. ) If the Lib dems replace Labour in a constituency it will be hard for them to come back. This time the NPs ( BNP, SNP, WNP ( Plaid Cymru )) will be more attractive for certain voters thus opening a chance for the Lib Dems to recast British Politics.
It's there to be done but I doubt they have the drive to push for it
We, together with our political wing, intend to scare community leaders into collecting large numbers of postal votes from their communities. We also intend to marshal election officials to ensure the reprehensible BNP's vote is kept low.
Iain, the labour Party is so short of funds that they are now betting on a dead cert in order to raise some cash for the forthcoming general election!
Clegg did awfully well this week. I've been looking at stats which highlight the Lib Dem poll % is phenomenally soft. They could hit 30 without knowing it.
Labour could come 4th - like the Lib Dems did last time.
What will really interest me is how Brown deals with this. If he puts out another YouTube video (the last one was pure comedy gold, let's have more) where he sounds like Comical Ali, they truly are doomed.
All this said, the opposition has to be very careful. People may not go out to vote for Labour - but if your own supporters won't make their voices heard at the ballot box, Labour could make it in by default. We don't want that!
I've been thinking its more than a possibility, Liebour still seem blind to the fact that you can't polish a turd, Brown is deeply loathed both here and in Scotland and the country is on its knees. Brown is surrounded by yes men telling him he is popular, the party still talk about trying to win the next election with Brown as leader, they will be annihilated next month and if they fail to act next year will be an unprecedented slaughter.
Ah - but just think, they already have their excuse 'pre-cooked' and just needs to be warmed up for the Sunday Lunch after the election...
"Avoiding public transport to get to the polling station due to Swine Flu affects our voters disproportionately..
yawn yawn.. depressed our turnout ... jabber jabber.. rising damp in the barbecue //
we can recover from this.. the PM is getting on with the job.. "
I'm really hoping for labour to come in fourth place so we can all crack obvious jokes on Prescotts site..
Happy times.. sigh.
"Could Labour really come third?"
In the euros? 4th is entirely possible.
Third? Try fourth according to last week's Torygraph poll.
UKIP will be the second party in the EU imperial election in June.
This is just completely made up Iain. Pathetic.
Actually it's not. Unlike you I do not make things up on my blog.
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