Sunday, June 22, 2008

Has Gordon Brown Reached a Tipping Point?

It really couldn't get much worse for Gordon Brown. Read THIS poll for the Mail on Sunday. The headline figures are bad enough - Labour on 26% and the Conservatives 23 points ahead on 49%. The LibDems have also collapsed to 14%, down five points on last month. But it is Brown's personal ratings which seem to be at an irrecoverable low. I have constantly maintained that it is possible for Brown to pull things round, but I'm now not so sure and wonder whether he hasn't reached a tipping point. A massive 85% of people (by definition including a majority of Labour voters) believe he has performed worse than they expected, compared to 55% who think David Cameron has performed better than they expected. Only 3% find Gordon Brown 'charismatic' compared to 50% who say the same about David Cameron.
Asked to say if they associated Mr Brown and Mr Cameron with a long list of positive characteristics, the Conservative leader won in every single category. They were ‘change’, ‘strong’, ‘honest’, ‘attractive’, ‘caring’ ‘optimistic’, ‘competent’, ‘patriotic’, ‘charismatic’, ‘intelligent’, ‘judgment’, ‘realistic’, ‘dignified’ and ‘modern’. Nearly one in two said Mr Brown is arrogant, compared to one in four for Mr Cameron. When the same questions were put last autumn, Mr Brown was well ahead.

It is very difficult to see how this constant stream of negatives can be turned into positives.

35 comments:

Anonymous said...

The moment that Cameron goes live with the electorate is when the disenchantment will set in.

He is the PR man of absolute vacuity.

Rog said...

"It is very difficult to see how this constant stream of negatives can be turned into positives."

It can't, because both he and his wretched party are catastrophically bloody useless.

Anonymous said...

That's it. Nurse! Bring the screens. Put this man on suicide watch.
What's his name? Brown? Used to be somebody in the world of politics?
Sorry, but this man is dead. He is no more. he is a late Prime Minister. Shame, but bye, bye Gordon

Jeremy Jacobs said...

But there's only one poll that counts Iain!

diogenes said...

Iain, clearly I do not understand the term 'tipping point'.

How is now the tipping point rather than conference season last year?

Are you expecting Gordon's popularity to nosedive, starting now? Even at his current rate of decline he will get somewhat less than no votes at the next election.

Good to see DG get a massive boost in the press today.

Anonymous said...

It's a bit rich of Gordon to emulate Blair in saying that he will not be fighting an election after the next one.
As if anyone seriously believes that he will survive that ( or even unto it ).

Mark Pack said...

I think you are mistaken in your vote change comparison Iain as the previous BPIX poll was last year, not last month.

Anyway, as it is the one pollster that isn't a member of the British Polling Council, doesn't provide details of its methodology, doesn't provide full tables of results and has repeatedly produced polls out of step with other firms, a fair degree of scepticism should apply really.

Patrick said...

This constant stream of negatives will result in a positive - Brown will lose the next election

javelin said...

A friend of mine, who is disinterested in politics summed the public's view of New Labour up.

"That lot won't get voted in again."

Worse still it's being pointed out that not only is Cameron the heir to New Labour, but his party is now positioning itself as the heir to Old Labour (social) ideals.

In traders paralance, Gordon bottled out of a "Take Profit", now the Party wish they had put a "Stop Loss" on their investment.

javelin said...

I could have put that better ...

Gordon bottled put of a "Take Profit" last summer, now the Labour Party are bottling out of a "Stop Loss" this summer .

Pig-me hater said...

If one is ruled by a tribe of political pig-me's, and the me-me-me-me element is hived off to become a global roaming trouble-shooter, what does that leave us with ?

Correct : political pig-pig-pig-pig.

javelin said...

Is ths relevant, cos this is the guardian has the following:-

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/jun/22/economy

"Insiders said that Labour now hoped to be able to cover its immediate costs, but only by leaving 'not a penny' in the bank for a general election campaign. It is relying on volunteers on the ground because it cannot afford paid staff"

- When they say 'not a penny' do they mean an even bigger overdraft :)))

It's evolution Iain, but not as we know it.

Anonymous said...

One would certainly hope so.However -the questionable impartial BBBC (Brown Broadcasting Corpse-sic) has Toilets Mcquire trying to render first aid with a typical anti Tory rant on Breakfast Time.Pity really- as he followed a great debunking interview on the Beebs politically correct idiot journalism.

JH

strapworld said...

Gosh, see the Labour Kindergarten are still at it at 01.17!! Brown IS worried.

Mind you both Sky and the BBC will tell us that his trip to Saudi was an oustanding success and he alone is changing the world!

Brown is damaged goods and will go the way all damaged goods go...very soon. I thought the most significant story was the one, yesterday, in which it was said that Brown has promised to go during the next Parliament. That showed, to me, that Brown is very concerned about the polls and the reaction within the Labour Party.

I believe that something will happen shortly that will bring the whole Labour Government to its heels and cause a much earlier general election, which will bring about the smallest parliamentary Labour Party since its birth. The Liberal Democrats will become the Official Opposition.

Although I have an inkling that, because the economic situation coupled with the utter mess this rotten administration will leave behind, a move for a Government of National Unity may be the best way forward to get us out of the mess.

Whatever! Brown is tarnished goods.
He deserves all he gets.

Anonymous said...

What worries me is, Brown is so utterly useless that he may get the underdog vote at the next election.


...... Ok stop worrying.

David H

Anonymous said...

Given the present national and world economic situation which hasn't bottomed yet in the UK and is expected to last at least over next 2 years before we see an upturn, it's difficult to see how any sitting government and Prime Minister (much less the present one led by Brown) could survive the present financial maelstrom and recover sufficiently to win an election in 2010. In addition, of course, we are in the usual political cycle of the voters swinging back toward the opposite political spectrum after a period of favouring the other. It happened with the Tories in 1997 after 18 years and it's happening with Labour now.

The game is up for Brown and Labour.The best they can do now is start to salvage what they can to enable them to re-build the party in opposition. Unfortunately, as the Tories have discovered, the process can sometimes take at least a decade or more to return to government

Adam McNestrie said...

There’s a very dirty, slightly shameful truth lying underneath Brown’s unpopularity. It’s always coming up when commentators anatomise his public persona and sometimes even when opponents seek to criticize his character, but no one has given it the explanatory centrality it merits. Gordon Brown is boring. And he is boring at a time when it is a very unfashionable failing to have.

We can accept people who swindle us, coerce us, humiliate us; people who set out to best us and achieve it; people who neglect us, who outperform us, who forget our names. Rogues, hedonists, flaneurs, rou├ęs, egotists we can forgive: those who transgress or get the better of us, those who wrong us, but who do it with a little style or some forgivable ambition, even some understandable selfishness. But we will not forgive those who bore us. People who steal our time, numb our pleasure centres, turn our fast-coursing blood to gravy – all of this generally without understanding or feeling the warranted contrition – belong in the most ingeniously appointed circle of hell. We will never forgive them.

People in the media suffer most from boring politicians and are the least willing to suffer them. They are the ones who have to spend their time thinking about the offending politician and writing about them. After Blair they were desperate for something new and interesting – for a while they thought they had it (Brown was the non-partisan ‘father of the nation’) – but then he clumsily revealed that he was a partisan politician through the election-that-never-was. That destroyed the novel line the media was taking: it turned out that Brown was just like Blair, but more boring. Much of the strength of the media response to Brown’s government is conscious or unconscious media resentment.

To read more visit my blog, just who the hell are? on wordpress.com, at:
http://adammcnestrie.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post.php?action=edit&post=6

Anonymous said...

It's Dave's glittering array of policies wot's swung it

Anonymous said...

Gordon has not had a chance of 'recovery' since he bottled a General Election in October. He had a window where the credit crunch was felt to be a 'blip'.

But, unfortunately for him and for a lot of the UK, the credit crunch is huge. Many UK (and US) banks are in serious financial trouble. The pain for UK banks will be exacerbated by wholesale bad debts on both secured and unsecured debts. If the crunch continues (and it will!), house prices could fall 50%. Even John Wrigglesworth, self proclaimed 'property expert' and arch vested interest, agrees.

Without ever increasing personal debt (the bubble that has created property 'wealth'), the UK economy will implode - and the banks with it.

To repeat, Gordon is a dead duck, a non-entity, a moron. He caused the bubble and he and ZaNu Labour will pay the ultimate price - if you are given the cloice. But that's another story!

Anonymous said...

More insightful, unbiased coverage from the 35467th most modest gay man in Britain !!

Gordon said...

Re Adam McNestrie:

Gordon Brown may be boring, but I'm unconvinced that is why he has such low poll ratings. Iain also picked out the "3% find Brown charismatic" stat but this is also, I think, missing the point.

Everyone knew Gordon Brown was boring when he became Labour leader, but this was seen initially as a welcome change, with Kevin Rudd in Australia being elected PM at the same time also off a boring image.

If Gordon Brown came across as capable rather than spinning just as much as Blair but less well, and if the economy etc was still performing well, his ratings would not be that bad.

I still think we can accept and even vote for a boring leader (the Lib Dems obviously hope so), Gordon's problem is that he's doing badly in all the other important areas.

Anonymous said...

Come back John Prescott all is forgiven.
freedom to prosper

mitch said...

Could be the name of one of his eco towns.

The Raven said...

"The moment that Cameron goes live with the electorate is when the disenchantment will set in."

He's more 'live' with the electorate now than Brown has ever been or will ever be. And people seem to like him a lot more than that socially retarded nose-picker you've got.

Broon's Talking Bawgie said...

Personally, I won't be happy until MPs' final salaries are ended and replaced with defined contribution schemes and a personal savings pot.

Broon can then be personally pursued and bankrupted, and his pension pot confiscated, by the creditors of the Labour Party, ensuring that he has the kind of miserable, wretched, [poverty stricken old age his evil, hateful, vicious policies have visited on so many others.

Twig said...

The danger is that he will make irreverseable changes whilst still in office, such as signing away control of our nation (what's left of it) to Brussels.

Henry Rogers said...

>..........damaged goods and will go the way all damaged goods go...very soon.........
Strapworld @ 9:12 AM


Would Brown/Newlabour compost well do you think? Or are they just landfill from which nobody will ever benefit?

verity said...

I hope the three per cent who find Brown "charismatic" have been isolated in a secure environment.

However, I agree with the first poster, the celebrated and prolific Anonymous, who says that the minute Cameron "goes live" with the electorate, disappointment will set in. He is indeed a PR man of profound vacuity.

Otoh, I don't think Brown will last until the next election. Something will happen and they'll have to put in a new leader stat.

I want to complain officially about Adam McNestry's outrageous manners in constantly coming here for purposes of promoting his own blog. Mr McNestry: you don't seem to be overly sensitive because you have been twitted on this before, by other regulars around this joint and yet you persist with your loutish behaviour.

Have you ever noticed that some of the names of posters are in the colour black and some are in the colour blue? As is yours, for example. The blue ones are links to those people's blogs. So you already have a link. You are the only one on this site who double-dips.

neil craig said...

Don't be too triumphalist, it is only a year since the polls showed almost the reverse (except for the LibDims). All this really shows is that the public are pised off.

golden rose said...

A general election is potentially the best part of two years away. None of us truly know what will happen in that time. If this government were a trade, it might be re-testing key levels quite strongly. People might be considering a hedge. Whether it has turned into a SAR - stop and reverse - time will tell. Even markets has their moments of flux; they rarely flow straight from one proposition to another.

judith said...

Brown and his Party are long past the point of no return.

There will of course be voters who, through tribal loyalty or sheer stupidity, will vote Labour at the next GE, but I genuinely believe Cameron is tough enough to cope - and goodness, he is going to have a hell of a lot to cope with. But no doubt the moaners will be out in force, 6 months after a Tory victory, wondering why miracles haven't been performed yet.

Alex said...

This government looks dead and buruied, but it worries me that Brown might learn from Mugabe.

In the last year Brown has failed at PR and he has failed to operate the levers of government propoerly. If he manages to get to grips with the latter, he is not above using the power at his disposal to gerrymander the election, such as, for example, the new proposals on party funding. It might be all too tempting to institute state funding and even to outlaw all donations over £500 (except of course for unions).

vervet said...

Somewhat OT, but can anyone here explain why Brown is the only national leader in Jeddah (excepting the host, obviously) ?

IMHO he has demeaned himself once more - no other leader felt it necessary to involve themselves.

Of course, Jonah's presence will ensure no great progress is made.

Bill Quango MP said...

Brown is Boring. Boring and unpleasant.

He is Brown. That 1970's brown. That Austin Allegro British Leyland brown.

That 1970's knitware colour brown. That tank top. Those early 90's thick jumbo corduroy trousers brown. That old Sainsburys brown before they went orange.
He is the leather elbow patch on a 'Please Sir' teacher's jacket.The Brown crochet tie, the British Army battledress of war..dull dull brown. Mr Bean tweed jacket brown!

Brown as an old 'Welcome' mat, a burn ring on an ironing board, scuffed parquet flooring brown, swimming pool lockers brown.
The ugly brown sea in the Bristol Channel, the awful chocolate brown of the Lotus Elite.

The horrible brown cupboards of a kitchen in a house you have just bought that have SKIP written all over them.
Fallen January brown leaves that are [brown] mud ridden and only serve to remind that winter is going to be around for a whiile yet.

Brown. Brown as a tea ring, an old teapot your gran might have, school stew and school satchel brown. Fake dog poo, fake tan Brown.
He is Huggy Bear's pimp hat brown. Bodie's jacket brown. Cheap wooden paneling brown.

As popular as Roehm's Stormtroopers brown.

Brown and darling. The beige brothers,the tan twins.Ugly Bettys

Boring. Soul destroyer boring.
As dull, cold, tedious, wearisome, humdrum and as monotonously repetitive as an airport unattended bag announcement.

Gordon Brown is as unappealing, as the 1970's he is destined to take us back too.

I bet he still has his flares.
In chocolate brown, naturally.

Anonymous said...

Gordon Brown deserves to be ousted in the way he ousted my favourite person, Tony Blair. I hope that Gordon Brown along with the Labour Party lose the next election because of their ingratitude to Tony after he won three elections for them. Tony Blair is a wonderful man and Brown is not fit for the office he holds.

I left the Labour Party after Brown was acclaimed leader and became P.M.Anne.