Friday, June 27, 2008

Gordon's Black Friday Just Got a Whole Lot Worse

As if Gordon's first anniversary couldn't get any worse, Tartan Hero reports that Gordon Brown will face another by election on Monday when Glasgow East MP David Marshall will resign his seat on the grounds of ill health. The SNP would require a 22% swing to take the seat, but in these days anything is possible. If they did that, I fear it would be the end for GB.

Actually, it gets even worse than that, with ComRes reporting a stonking 21 point lead for the Tories over Labour (46-25). Labour is down five points on last month.

UPDATE: The Telegraph has more.

27 comments:

Newmania said...

Goody goody gum drops , did I see the rather nice editor of Politicos on Sky chatting about trust this eve. Like her .Today both John Kamfner and Polly Toynbee threw in the towel accepting that all Gordon can achieve is to limit the damage .One problem the great awk has is that whilst a sense of vertigo make we Conservatives a little chary of wooping it is just as possible that Labour`s position will do the opposite of ‘improve’ from this point . Brown who veers from tragedy to farce should read his Lear…IV.i.37; Edgar: "the worst is not,/ So long as we can say, "This is the worst.

Consider then the possibility of annihilation

I do not believe myself that the economy has yet started to do the damage that it will with stagflaton only just becoming visible and I cannot believe we will be on easy Street in 24 months .
Once Labour accept defeat , and they have , then a whole new horror awaits which is that of division and turf wars erupting before there is only an old hard left who will elect the unelectable . They will have no-one in the South almost certainly . This implosion will feed on itself a new Party paradigm is not impossible with the only viable elements of the Party equally at home in the Lib Dems .
Even the Conservative centre could accept the Blair wing with some reservations , much of what Oliver Letwin has had to say about ”Progressive ends by new means” is worryingly Blairy. These people are careerists and whilst an element is just about tolerable it is the only element of Labour that is not laughable.

The knock on effect for Cameron is to take power out of his hands and out it in the hands of the Party.
This in my view is a somewhat mixed blessing , as I am convinced Cameron is a true Conservative but he has a long term map and the patience to follow the route .I recommend any emboldened right winger to read some of his early speeches

He can be trusted.

Anonymous said...

Ouch!

Iain, as much as I dislike the current Labour government, please dwell on my own personal belief that Brown is probably a thoroughly decent man - importantly, much more so than Blair.

Had they not come to the power sharing arrangement that has so dogged our country for the past decade, and Brown had become PM in '97, then we'd be in much better shape as a result - for starters, I doubt we'd have gone into Iraq. Brown would have held a much stronger position, and I believe, would probably have stood up to Bush. The UN would simply not have been used as if it were a local council, pathetically lame. In this alone, over a million lives could have been saved.

What else would have been different?

I am not asking you to go easy on the Labour government - just to bear in mind that the real damage was orchestrated by Blair, which seems to have been forgotten.

Where is the inquiry into the Iraq war? Why isn't Blair having to answer questions anymore - soldiers are still dying. Is justice only imposed upon the poor, forgoing the political establishment?

I love politics, I follow it every day - your blog being one of the few I read, but there is more - we must hold account those who commit crimes, and at the end of the day, remember that it is all about our country, our people. Humanity.

tapestry said...

Read the detail of the poll. The figures underestimate the lead.

Some 74 per cent of Tory supporters are "absolutely certain" to vote, compared with 58 per cent of Labour supporters and 50 per cent of Liberal Democrats.
.

Factor that in, and Labour MPs will exist no more in 2010. They might as well resign now and seek other employment before they all come onto the emplyment market at once.

Anonymous said...

Still, not everything in Camp Cameron is perfect, well your 'ol mate Peter Oborne don't think so.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1030069/Could-return-Tory-sleaze-derail-Camerons-smooth-ride-No-10.html

Is Alan duncan a friend of yours Iain.

Happy Tory said...

That's a dilemma then. I have to fit in Haltemprice and Howden, then Glasgow East. Second dilemma - do I help the SNP to make the LibDems' feel even more suicidal?

And then it's down to Winchester.

Paul Pinfield said...

Not a large sample yet, and this may change, but over at LabourHome 88% of those polled think that Brooon cannot beat the Tories: http://www.labourhome.org/poll/1214341581_WFhzohfv

Anonymous said...

Don't be so cocky Ian. Both Brown and Cameron could get a bloody nose from the SNP.

It is possible that Brown himself will not be re-elected at the next election, Salmonds' street cred is gaining by leaps and bounds.

Johnny Norfolk said...

Nothing so far on the BBC news front page about the Labour disaster at Henley. Fewer votes than the BNP, Just how bad has it got to get before the BBC wakes up, but then the BBC is Labour.

Anonymous said...

Wendy Alexaner resigns as well!

The Lakelander said...

And there's more...

Wendy Alexander is stepping down as Leader of the Scottish Labour Party

Anonymous said...

Becoming Black Saturday - Wendy Alexander going to resign this morning.

Anonymous said...

It gets a Whole Lot Worse...

'Scottish Labour leader Wendy Alexander is expected to announce she will stand down, the BBC understands.'

vervet said...

And now it looks like Wendy Alexander will 'jump ship' ... so another one of 'our' politicians that claimed the probity, morality and competence required to represent our interests, but who cannot understand a simple set of rules, may be gone.

No loss there then.

Anonymous said...

Just to really set the icing Wendy Alexander looks as if she's standing down as Scottish Labour leader.

What was it Gordon said about her...

Sunonmars said...

BBC reporting Wendy Alexander to step down within hours.

Adam McNestrie said...

Labour’s 3% share of the vote in the Henley by-election is one of the most shocking statistics that I ever heard. In 100 years time it will be one of those scarcely credible statistics that historians use to make a more general point about the period – like the one about no one voting at all in Scotland in the 1826 General Election.

3% is a fringe party; it’s almost within the pollster’s margin of error. It’s what a crank or a weirdo gets when they insistently force themselves upon the attention of an electorate. It has to be watermark. I think that it marks the beginning of two mutually reinforcing phenomena, both of them affecting Labour supporters: shame and despair. Quite suddenly it has become shameful to profess to support Labour. You need to have some courage to do it publicly, and anyone wanting to vote Labour has to bear up under the weight of that shame. The despair comes out of the feeling that Labour is doomed, that going down to the polling booth and registering a vote for them is a pointless twilight act, a sort of pantomime of a once significant act. The Labour electorate is beset now by faithlessness.

A Glasgow by-election could be very dangerous for Labour. It will be so easily presented by the press in terms of: "If Labour can't perform well here, they can't perform well anywhere."

Read more of my views at my blog, Just who the hell are we? on wordpress.com, at:
http://adammcnestrie.wordpress.com/

Anonymous said...

Assume that they'll need to be another by-election now Wendy Alexander is resigning from her Paisley North seat?

Victor, NW Kent said...

That prolific poster, Anonymous,says that Gordon Brown is a thoroughly decent man.

Even if we accept that it is not enough. He has become foolish and prone to error. It may be that a lot of his errors arise out of belief in the misleading and inaccurate statistics that he trots out on all occasions.

He is said to be intelligent but may just be The Wisest Fool in Christendom.

Anonymous said...

Bastard Brown is starting to make me really angry. The best that can be said of him is that he wasn't elected in a Mugabe style, one candidate elec---

Lord James Bigglesworth said...

We don't actually need Brown to go. Better he stays and takes the whole show down with him.

mitch said...

"and Brown had become PM in '97, then we'd be in much better shape as a result - for starters, I doubt we'd have gone into Iraq."

He would still be dithering about it then probably invade the Isle of Wight.What makes anyone think Brown would not have been a disaster in 97 ? whats changed? he hasn't

Anonymous said...

There may not be a by-election in Wendy Alexander's seat but there will be one in Motherwell and Wishaw when Jack McConnell steps down in the next few months.

For Glasgow East we should run a low key campaign and give tacit support to the SNP to get rid of another one of Brown's minions. Given our position there I don't think we've got much choice.

Bill Quango MP said...

Anonymous said... the real damage was orchestrated by Blair..

Blair.. let's blame him for everything. All those MP's who voted for the war. They were just following orders?
Brown, who has pretended to bring the troops home for a year, who has taxed us beyond endurance, and has been unable to put forward any kind of 'Vision' except a kind of Zimbabwean one.
You think he should have been in power for longer?

If he had a shred of dignity he would phone Alexander for some resignation letter advice.

Blair. He failed
Brown. He is failure personified

Anonymous said...

It appears many Labour and Conservative M.P.'s have completely lost their way, by getting into bed with corrupt serial liars and cheats.

In my opinion, the sooner we break away from the corruption with a frightening foreign political ideology and focus on how to recover the up coming greatest depression ever - the better!

Look at what is happening to our Health & Welfare policies!

We are now trusting in lies and non-medical unchallenged "theories" invented by a very troubled neo-con American based "insurer" - producing psycho babble and very expensive pathways.

It's a total disgrace, which will probably negatively affect someone you love or know very soon...

The current political environment is not a Lab, Tory, Libdem "party" issue.

This is now a very serious freedom issue and we should all learn from history. Communism failed!

Open your eyes - Scotland

May the true leaders with integrity take a honorable stand [like Nigel Farage, David Davis and Daniel Hannan] and quickly replace all the overshadowed puppets preoccupied with helping impose what Gordon Brown and George Bush refer to as "A New World Order" - it stinks rotten.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceejnrM858k
The last days of democracy?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2pn3n0KwVI
Puppets of War

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6M5GK9Na8KU
The Truth

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7354M1QmGYQ
Iran & Energy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0o064gY3DMU
Bush and Brown Agree on Hard Line Against Iran

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWj1dXouPJM
Stop!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LktFfHciyqg
Scott McClellan Questioned about Neocon Push for Iraq War

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hsi4WSY3PqE
In Lies We Trust

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjPoeQRewiE
Confessions of an Economic Hit Man

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDRA3XFfDr4
Freedom 101

Get rid of all the "walking dead"

Scotland - It's Time...

TrevorH said...

"Brown is probably a thoroughly decent man"

Huh?

why then does he tell so many lies?

Yak40 said...

Anonymous said... the real damage was orchestrated by Blair..


Like the old soviet guff, blame the "dead". Best example was Kruschev's denunciation of Stalin in the famous "secret" speech, that way Lenin's atrocities etc were ignored and the brand itself untainted.

Brown was number two since before 1997 and had pretty much free rein since 1997 in domestic policy. He is the best example of incompetence in a thoroughly incompetent administration.

Anonymous said...

Iain...Read Guido...Stop being a pratt...Wendy Alexander is as bent as a banana....