My prediction that Ming Campbell will not be leader of the year looks an increasingly good one. Look at the evidence. The PEOPLE ran a story at the weekend headlined NO MERCY FOR MING, three LibDem Candidates have DEFECTED to the Conservatives citing no confidence in Ming - one of them said “Ming Campbell is a ‘has-been’ and since he has been in control of the party, they have been stuck firmly in reverse gear". On BROADCASTING HOUSE on Christmas Eve a number of LibDem councillors expressed their dissatisfaction with their leader. This morning on the Today Programme Ming was forced to DEFEND his leadership, while William Hill are quoting him at 5-1 to fulfill my prediction of a departure by the end of the year. On top of this, the normally uberloyal LibDem Voice, according to Dizzy, is also having an oblique pop at Ming...
"In what seems a rather rose-tinted review of 2006 here, it bemoans the recent downturn in the polls for the party and appears to blame Ming Campbell. It suggests he has failed to "seize the political agenda" and his team needs to find an "issue" in 2007 to get back on track."
Now, far be it from to suggest that this amounts to anything more than a row of beans. But even the most diehard LibDem would surely admit this is not an ideal way to start a new year. OK, I suppose it';s a slightly better way than they started 2006, but that is scant consolation.
But before any Conservatives start salivating at the thought of Ming Campbell's departure, let's just contemplate his likely successors. They are Nick Clegg and Chris Huhne. Either of them would be a far more formidable opponent for the Tories than Ming. So let's not do anything which might tip Ming over the edge. The LibDems will indulge in a lot of huffing and puffing over the next few months - especially when they have a dismal result in the May elections - but it may not be in Conservative interests for them to have enough wind to blow Ming's house down.
PS Having said that, you know I won't be able to resist having the occasional puff...
21 comments:
You don't need to do anything to encourage Ming to topple Iain, he's doing a perfectly good job himself. I think the Libdems were having a senior moment when they elected him - the only question can be how long.
Noticeable this morning that Madame Ming was back to trumpeting LDP close-run seats with Tories - I think they've decided to return to knocking the Tories as a strategy for the next General - presumably a signal that they think Cameron remains weak in the South-West. This also explains Cameron's lurch to environmentalism and fairtrade shopping, popular issues in Exeter and Bournemouth.
Huhne's seat is looking a little precarious. 15 years ago at the time of Stephen Milligan, there was a 50%+ Tory vote. After Mr Milligan's encounter with a satsuma, that vote dropped to 25%, but has steadily increased.
Huhne held the seat in 2005 with a 578 majority, but with recent changes in polling for the Conservatives and Lib Dems, Huhne does not look like a safe bet at the next GE.
please let it be Huhne - Europhile, self aggrandising and so out of touch that for example he is a lead member of the make Britain metric group. Nick Clegg on the other hand would be a problem.
I have been saying it had to be this year for ages because of the boundary commission which I think is worth 40 not 20 seats . Simon Heffer says so as well today . It look as if I am really influential(Ho ho)
IMPORTANT BREAKING NEWS
http://www.praguetory.blogspot.com/
I always wonder why the Lib Dems don't attack the GOVERNMENT rather than the Opposition?
Why vote for a party who actually wants to be second?
Isn't the idea of taking part in a race to actually win it?
Perhaps you can see from all this why I'm not a Lib Dim!
There will be much trouble for the Lib Dems this year.
However, many of their voters have come from Labour too in recent years so it is not all rosy for the Tories. Many lib dem votes just make safe seats in the south even safer. Tories need big jumps to get ahead in the midlands and the north.
Ming warns critics
Ming increasingly has the appearance of an undertaker at the funeral of his party. All he needs is a fine top hat.
It says something that with a record number of MPs the best names that can be put forward as a successor to Ming are Clegg and Huhne. Neither has much obvious talent being fairly typical of the reedy voiced charisma vacuums that populate the Lib Dems frontbench.
"Forced to defend his leadership" hardly proves anything. All you need is one interviewer to say "So, having trouble as leader?" and you're forced to defend it.
"I always wonder why the Lib Dems don't attack the GOVERNMENT rather than the Opposition?"
THe same could be said about Tories obsessed with attacking the Lib Dems...
The big thing about the Lib Dems wwhich they're still failing to milk properly, was their firm stand on the Iraq war/invasion. Can anyone remember seeing Ming among the, some somewhat(sic) more reluctant than others, Lib dem MPs who joined Charlie K on the big anti-war march? was he too ill at the time - or indisposed for other reasons which he might share with Gordon Brown and David Cameron?
Wouldn't it be fun to start a Julia Goldsworthy 4 Leader blog....?
"PS Having said that, you know I won't be able to resist having the occasional puff..."
Yes, but what would your partner have to say about that?
(Or has that one been done already? :P)
"I won't be able to resist having the occasional puff..."
Quite legal, as long as he's over 16!
When it comes to leadership choice, the tories choose Cameron and the LibDem Ming.
I don't think the tories are very well placed to criticize !
And you wonder why Labour is still up there in the polls.
The key issue is much deeper for the Dems. What themes do they have as an agenda? The all things to all men strategy can only take them so far. If only John Hemming would join the Tories?
See you haven't made any mention of
http://susannelamido.blogspot.com/2006/12/libdems-taking-nose-dive.html
thought you were one of her fans
"The all things to all men strategy can only take them so far."
You mean they might just catch up with Cameron's heels on that theme?
None of you ever asks yourself why the Conservative Party has suddenly become attractive to Eurofanatical, anti-family, pro-crime, pro-drugs Lib Dems.
Meanwhile, because they're either not much like that or make a good job of hiding it in Scotland and the North respectivley, they are heading for major gains in both at Labour's expense this year.
But these are, with Wales and the Midlands, the areas where the TORIES need to regain seats lost to Labour in 1997, just as you need to regain seats from the Lib Dems in the West Country, which nothing this year is going to suggest that you are on course to do.
Not that anyone in the myopic metropolitan media will notice. And Notting Hill Dave certainly won't.
In reply to David Lindsay about the Lib-Dems being Eurofantical. I believe it was the last three Tory Prime Minsters who have brought us ever closer to Europe politically. Heath by entering into the EEC, Thatcher by signing the Single European Act and Major by signing the Maastricht Treaty. All without consulting the British people. At least the Lib-Dems wanted to hold a referendum on the European Constitution.
I quite agree. But the Lib Dems wanted a Yes vote, just as Heath, Thatcher and Major would have wanted if they had been in office (although she might pretend otherwise now). IDS was the only Eurosceptic EVER to lead the Tories, the party of the Treaty of Rome, the Single European Act, and the Maastricht Treaty.
That's my point David. That the Tories have been led by pro-EU Tory Prime Ministers. The Tories may have had IDS, who never managed to get to a General Election, who was eurosceptic but I still reckon he would have done a Thatcher and said 'No,No,No' but continued to sign away Britain rights without asking the British people.
Although the Lib-Dems are the most pro-EU party - that doesn't make them Eurofantical. Just makes them, in my opinion, more honest and democratic (in calling for referendums) than the Tories. But then again the Lib-Dems haven't been in power for so long but it's unlikely they would do U-turn on this issue as blantant as the Tories have done.
I'm a Lib-Dem who doesn't wish for the UK to leave the EU because there are benefits economically and culturally for us. However (like Westminster) I wish the EU to be more democratic and accountable - as well as having a better balance between national sovereignty and pooled sovereignty.
This means getting rid of European Election closed lists - and replace it with open PR system, phase out CAP and huge subisidies for countries, close the wasteful Strasbourg second HQ of the EU and allowing nations to control their own borders in terms of immigration.
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