Friday, May 07, 2010

Remember This, Gordon Brown

I think Mr Brown may remember that the Tory mandate in 1992 was rather bigger than his is today.

Remind me, why is he still in Number Ten?


Sabreman64 said...

Iain, I've just been looking at UK election stats on Wikipedia going back to the 1930s. Cameron has made a net gain of 97 seats. That's the largest net gain of seats the Tories have made at an election since 1931. People who say that Cameron has been a failure may like to keep that fact in mind.

Michael Heaver said...

Brown is going to fight fight fight until he is removed. Someone in Labour needs to get some bottle together and get this man out before he destroys their Party further.

What was that, Charles Clarke?

apricotfox said...

Very timely, Iain. But will he recall saying this? As if!

Robin Horsley said...

Good point. Shall we have a whip-round and get him a room in a Travelodge until this is sorted?

waymore said...

He is still in Number Ten because he knows that Clegg has not a whores chance in the Vatican of selling Cameron to the muesli-knitting, Trident-Ridding core membership of his party, who would prefer to make league with the Greens than to talk reality with the Conservative Party. Brown will still be PM on Monday, despite his humiliation.

Unsworth said...

He's still in Number 10 because he's petrified of coming out and facing the public.

Imagine what would happen if he actually walked along the street without his entourage of heavies. He'd probably make no more than a hundred yards before receiving severe physical damage.

Curmy said...

I've enjoyed watching the local news and seeing nearly the whole of E. Anglia now coloured blue !

Martin Wellbourne said...

He's still there because he has no shame, no honour and no courage.

You can ridicule him as much as you like, expose him constantly as a hypocrite, an incompetent, a liar, fraud or just downright weirdo. Nothing matters. If he CAN he WILL stay put.

Jimmy said...

Sounds remarkably like the guff the tories were coming out with last night. Was there a single one who didn't parrot the 1931 talking point? It was comical.

Alan Douglas said...

Iain, despite your quite extensive knowledge of the political scene, you are so naive !

Brown's claims, above, apply to TORIES. Just like sleaze. To TORIES.

Just like boom and bust, to TORIES.

It is grossly unfair to expect Brown's words to apply to him, their originator did NOT mean them as such. So hypocritical of you !

Alan Douglas

norman said...

@Jimmy. Your Brown behaves more like the corrupt Iraqi or Afghan president who "win" even when they " lose". Labour has no sense of shame left. Even the Afghan president would be hesistant to do what Brown is doing.

The ancient protocol of a defeated PM sitting in No10 and making deals should be broken. HM the Queen should get involved.

Newmania said...

He still had a faint resemblance to a human being there did you notice ?

David Boothroyd said...

Gordon Brown is under a constitutional duty not to resign. The first principle of the British constitution is that the Queen's Government must be carried on, and at present there is no alternative government which has a majority. According to the Cabinet Office manual on what to do in a hung Parliament, the sitting Prime Minister should retain office until either an alternative administration is ready.

Let us remember that the political crisis might become a constitutional crisis if the Monarchy was forced to intervene in politics. A sudden resignation by Gordon Brown would do exactly that.

RJF said...

He will go presently. But you'll likely find that it will be the gilts market that forces him out and not Cameron, or Clegg and definitely no-one from within his own party.

ThePropertyLandlord said...

But Gordon clings on to power, like a cockroach you just can't get rid of him...Watch the video...

Jimmy said...

I don't see any grounds for whingeing. If Lightweight can square Clegg then Gordon goes. If he can't I don't see how it's Gordon's fault.

Tachybaptus said...

Newmania: yes, he does look more like a human being, but unfortunately that human being is Pierre Laval (give or take a moustache).

Andy JS said...

It looks like these are the 19 seats the Conservatives got closest to winning, (I may have missed out one or two seats from this list):

1. Hampstead & Kilburn - Lab maj 42.
2. Bolton West - Lab maj 92.
3. Solihull - LD maj 175.
4. Southampton Itchen - Lab maj 192.
5. Dorset Mid & Poole North - LD maj 269.
6. Wirral South - Lab maj 531.
7. Derby North - Lab maj 613.
8. Dudley North - Lab maj 649.
9. Great Grimsby - Lab maj 714.
10.Wells - LD maj 800.
11.Telford - Lab maj 981.
12.Walsall North - Lab maj 990.
13.Morley & Outwood - Lab maj 1,101.
14.B’ham Edgbaston - Lab maj 1,274.
15.Truro & St Austell - LD maj 1,312.
16.Halifax - Lab maj 1,472.
17.Newcastle-under-Lyme - Lab maj 1,552.
18.Plymouth Moor View - Lab maj 1,588.
19.Sutton & Cheam - LD maj 1,608

These majorities add up to 15,955 which means that if 7,978 people had voted differently in the right seats the Tories would have won an overall majority (assuming they win Thirsk & Malton).

hippo22 said...

It is an odd coincidence that this weekend is the 65th anniversary of VE day. Though the "Torgau moment" happened in late April when the Allies and the Russians finally met , with the remnants of a crushed over bureaucratic regime lingered in the bunker. Why do those Downfall virals resonate so loudly. Of course , no one dies in a democratic coup. The whole episode being characterized by the "Stalin to Mr Bean" jibe.

Rush-is-Right said...

I'm reminded of Jim Callaghan's reported remarks to Harold Wilson after the tied election in 1974.

Speaking of Heath, similarly tying to cling to office, "The worm is on the hook", he said. "Let the nation watch him wriggle."

Michael J said...

Brown is squatting.....

Surley Brown should have seen defeat and resigned, gone to the Queen and left the door to No. 10 open for Cameron to enter. It would then be up to the winning party to negotiate or fall.

Why tell me please did he not do that simple thing?

JuliaM said...

"He still had a faint resemblance to a human being there did you notice ?"

Indeed. He's like a Cylon in reverse - the latest model is the most inhuman...

JuliaM said...

"People who say that Cameron has been a failure may like to keep that fact in mind."

There are lots of reasons for people to say Cameron's a failure. And not all of them have anything to do with winning elections.

DespairingLiberal said...

That's true Sabreman, but his uplift in the percentage vote might be classed as depressing, given the dismal Brown government he was opposing.

The simple fact that many of you have not yet adjusted to is that we are now in three-party politics, not two, so you need much bigger swings to get an impact.

Interestingly, Cameron did get those swings in many rural and Southern England seats, but not in urban seats. The Tories are still not popular in much of urban and northern Britain. If you want to win big, you should think even more carefully about why. Part of the problem is the people you have in office and as candidates. I was struck by how well many of your female and minority candidates did, often bucking the trend and winning bigger seats.

Finally, a suggestion to Tory candidates - when you win, don't stand next to the most ridiculous stereotype public school idiot. The site of Zak Goldsmith's yorping triumphalist hooray-henry Chelsea buddie screaming and hollering was enough to put about 90% of the country off the Tories for life. Zero capability for self-reflection but a useful reminder of what (some of) you are really all about.

DespairingLiberal said...

Newmania is right - he has Changed!

I thought he looked very much like David Morrisey's portrayal of him in The Deal.

Jabba the Cat said...

Richard North has compiled a list that shows why the ignoring and dismissal by the Tories of the EUSSR and immigration issues has cost them the election majority it needed due to the drain of votes to UKIP and the BNP.

Oli said...

He'll be in a box before he leaves Number 10.

Lorna Spenceley said...

He's still in Number Ten because your party hasn't secured an outright majority, Iain. It's not really such a difficult concept, is it?

tory boys never grow up said...

Remind me, why is he still in Number Ten?

For the simple reason that he needs to be able to hand over to someone who is able to command the support of the House of Commons.

Do you seriously thing that it would be good for the country for him to hand over to Cameron who then would need to hand over to someone else if he fails to reach an agreement with the Lib Dems? I think that would find that if that were to happen Cameron's power to negotiate with the LibDems would be even more severely limited.

As for the LibDems someone should remind them to get a move on - some of them are talking as though they can string out the negotiations for days and weeks. Saying that it is difficult just doesn't cut if from a Party which has always aimed to be in this position for years.

JB said...

All you Tories are so sad. You are welded to the 'first past the post' system but won't accept the results that are produced. All this talk of'the biggest number of seats gained since 1931' is irrelevant if a majority has not been achieved ( as is the desprate claime that if 15,000 had voted differently....).
Brown is still in No 10 because the Conservatives did not win enough seats ... face up to it.

Phil said...

@Andy JS:

Good work digging out these voting patterns.

I wonder if there is any way to dig out the postal votes patterns. For instance, I understand that the reason Balls's count took so long was because of the late arrival of over 9,000 postal votes.

Considering Balls only had a majority of 1101 (BTW, anal, I know, but if that was binary it would represent decimal number 13), it seems to me that it wouldn't have taken many fake postal votes to swing it his way.

We need to be able to check that the postal voting pattern was roughly the same as the personal voting pattern, as well as whether the actual PVs were from people qualified to be on the electoral roll.

Thomas said...

I don't think its him squating there, he won't be leader in a week but Browns technically still PM until Cameron can form a govt - while the coaltition talks go on with the Lib Dems Brown hasn't got a choice but to stay in charge. The UK can't not have a PM while everyone bickers about who gets what.

Everyone knows he has not chance of staying on a PM - its just whether Cameron becomes PM in coaltion or minority thats making us hang on with Brown for a while longer.

The Tories won, you have got Cameron as PM - really I think everyone can hang on a few more days for that since you waited 13 years.

Man in a Shed said...

Iain - I note they haven't opened up the No 10 petition web site after the election.

I think we can guess why ....

Englishman said...

I do hope the Scottish caretaker has got the place almost ready for when prime Minister Cameron moves in.

Englishman said...

The Jock should have resigned, and gone 'oot' with a modicum of decency, allowing Cameron to enter, but no, the Last ever Scotch Prime Minister (In England) will hang on and hang on the the sacred English cash cow for as long as possible, ive said years ago you will have to drag the Jock out of McDooning Street by the ankles while hes clinging on white knuckled to the letterbox!.

It's all doonhill from here for Broon, McLabour, roll on the return of Scotch irrelevance, if they dont like 'independence' (rule from Brussels outside the so called and null & void UK as opposed to EU rule from within) fact just go anyway!.

Englishman said...

So thanks to voters in Scotland, Wales and N Ireland, EU Regions with their 'own' EU Regional assemblies and Brussels subservient Governments, we have Broon, a Scot elected in Scotland, with no say over Scotland whatsoever, only England, despite being unelected, unaccountable to ANY English voter and totally without mandate, in power in England under a so called "UK" Government which only has any say and remit over ENGLAND?.

And we are told there is 'no Conservative majority in the COUNTRY?'.

No wonder Broon says 'Britain' and our country' a lot!.

Alan Douglas said...

Saturday midday - and we've had lots of foreplay, an interminable night of will/he won't he, now the severe let-down of no seminal outcome.

What a waste of energy ....

Alan Douglas

Sentient WV : wingedam (I kid you not)

Windsor Tripehound said...


Slightly O/T, but did you see Paxman's interview with Jack Dromey yesterday? He (Dromey) was talking such drivel about the result being a victory for Brown that Paxman was openly laughing with contempt.

If Brown is listening to this sort of tripe from Dromey and the rest of the sycophants it's no wonder he believes he has the right to stay on as PM.

What's the difference between Caligula and the electorate of Birmingham Erdington? At least Caligula sent both ends of his horse to the Senate.

Chris said...

@DespairingLiberal - you are right about the vote share problem and you make some fair points about the decontamination of the Tory brand. It is a work in progress. Cameron would be the first to admit that. While we are beginning to see more young people voting for us we are struggling to attract the share we need. Today's first time voters are the children of those who were young adults in the 1980s. As you say, in urban and northern Britain this remains a challenge. Candidate selection is improved but there is further to go. We've got to keep making progress on this - as have the Lib Dems. A point I would add is the rise of UKIP since the late 1990s. Most of UKIP's 3% vote are probably former Conservative voters. The loss of these may have a beneficial effect on the mainstream appeal of the party in the long run. But in the short term it makes it harder to reach the magic 40% needed to win a majority. Finally, your point about the 'hooray-henry' at Zac's count - while I understand what you mean there is something objectionable about this. You do not know this person. You do not know if he is an 'idiot' or if he went to public school - and so what if he did. You are judging him and making pejorative comments purely on the basis of what he looks like and the manner of his celebration (which can make us all look comical). If you do this with other sections of society it gets you into trouble - and rightly so because it's discriminatory, intolerant and nasty. You need to learn love your new partners a little bit more!

Moriarty said...

VE commemoration today. 65 years ago a delusional dictator was committing suicide in his bunker. who says history never repeats itself?

Stepney said...

Eviction. The Options:

a) Brown realises the game is up and it's time to call a taxi.

b) Phone up the Withington Hunt and ask them to bring the smoke and the terriers

c) Some rather alarming men from Hereford abseil in through the first floor window.

Stepney said...

Vote UKIP - get Clegg. Twas the headbangers wot lost it.

How's this for a set of statistics?

Bolton West: Labour 18,329; Conservative 18,235; UKIP 1,901

Derby North: Labour 14,896; Conservative 14,283; UKIP 829

Derbyshire NE: Labour 17,948: Conservative 15,503; UKIP 2,636

Dorset mid & Poole: Labour 21,100; Conservative 20,831; UKIP 2,109

Dudley North: Labour 14,923; Conservative 14,274; UKIP 3,267

Great Grimsby: Labour 10,777: Conservative 10,063: UKIP 2,043

Hampstead & Kilburn: Labour 17,332; Conservative 17,290; UKIP 408

Middlesbrough South: Labour 18,138; Conservative 16,461; UKIP 1,881

Morley (Ed Balls): Labour 18,365; Conservatives 17,264; UKIP 1,506

Newcastle-Under-Lyme: Labour 16,393; Conservatives 14,841; UKIP 3,491

Plymouth Moor View: Labour 15,433; Conservatives 13,845; UKIP 3,188

Solihull: Liberal 23,635; Conservatives 23,460; UKIP 1,200

Somerton & Frome: Liberal 28,793; Conservatives 26,976; UKIP 1,932

Southampton Itchen: Labour 16,326; Conservatives 16,134; UKIP 1,928

St Austell & Newquay: Liberal 20,189; Conservatives 18,877; UKIP 1,757

St Ives: Liberal 19,619; Conservatives 17,900; UKIP 2,560

Telford: Labour 15,977; Conservatives 14,996; UKIP 2,428

Walsall North: Labour 13,385; Conservatives 12,395; UKIP 1,737

Walsall South: Labour 16,211; Conservatives 14,456; UKIP 3,449

Wells: Liberal 24,560; Conservatives 23,760; UKIP 1,711

Wirral South: Labour 16,276; Conservatives 15,745; UKIP 1,274

kasou said...

How is this possible:
2010 Conservative Labour
Vote% 36% 29%
Seats 305 258

2005 Conservative Labour
Vote% 32% 35%
Seats 209 356

The system is crap, glad I dont live there any longer, although I am more English than Gordon, and have roots.

Bill Quango MP said...

Knock Knock
Who's there?
Dave who?

Never mind all that. Get out of my house!

miko said...

Just watching that reminded me of watching The Omen for the first time - he truly is the very Devil incarnate.

Champagne still chilling and awaiting his eviction - I reckon it happens tomorrow afternoon.

Not long now.

John said...

Gordon Brown is showing more respect for our constitution than The Odd Couple are right now. In fact, he has gone further than the constitution demands by accepting the wishes of Clegg to talk to Cameron first. Inevitably, Brown will have to go and I suspect he knows and accepts that.

Unsworth said...

@ David Boothroyd

"Gordon Brown is under a constitutional duty not to resign."

Complete and utter bollocks. Name the Statute.

tory boys never grow up said...


In case you haven't noticed we don't have a written constitution in the UK. Believe it or not it is probably good for the negotiations between Cameron and Clegg that Cameron isn't yet Prime Minister.

Exile said...

Why is Brown still the PM? Because he has not resigned and because the Tories have not yet proven that they can command a majority in the Commons to force him out.

Why did the Tories only get 3% more this time than in 2005? Because the election was a chance to remind people of what such utters shits they are when in power. People didn't want them back.

norman said...

@Stepney. A poster called Andy G is posting these statistics in DT joing that lunatic Heffer to pour scorn on DC. In our constituency UKIP got 2000+ votes and I met a few who voted for UKIP. They were not right wingers, EU haters and wanted to control immigration, but they were a bunch of socialists who did not want to vote Labour who they thought let them down by supporting banks and bankers, but they did not want the Tories to win. Hence they voted UKIP. If there was a party called RubbishTIP, they would have voted for it. There is no reason to believe all the UKIP votes would have gone to Tories. That is the UKIP spin to divert the attention of their failure to win even 1 seat. Despite the grand-standing of Loudmouth Farage, what he achieved was a set of bruices and broken bones as his deluded stunt went wrong. He will one day collect the EU pension. Ignore these UKIP distractors.

The Grim Reaper said...

A report from The Daily Mail on Saturday, April 7th, 2046...

GORDON BROWN is still the country’s Prime Minister despite having been dead for a fortnight, it was revealed today.

In a day of high turmoil at Westminster, the Prime Minister had arranged a press conference in order to clear up the confusion that had arisen from his dying two weeks ago in his office in Number 10. The cause of death is a state secret, but it is widely believed to have been linked to pictures of Brown that were published on the Guido Fawkes website a few days earlier. The pictures, which are suspected to have been leaked to the media by Lord Mandelson of Coffin, showed Mr Brown riding a rocking horse whilst wearing a nappy.

David Miliband Junior, who is the caretaker leader of the Labour Party, read out a brief statement to the media where he said “Gordon wishes to let everyone know that he is still Prime Minister, despite now being dead. He does not consider this to be an impediment, and is getting on with the job of leading Britain out of the sixth recession in 30 years, and helping hard-working families deal with the aftermath of the UK receiving its tenth IMF bailout in the same period. He believes that handing over to the Tories now would risk the recovery.”.

In the meantime, Downing Street refused to comment on a report published by Iain Dale this morning that Nokias were flying around the inside of the Prime Minister’s coffin.

Jimmy said...

Only a tory would demand that the constitution be changed to accommodate them.

DespairingLiberal said...

@Chris - I consider myself ticked off and yes, you have a point, one does need to draw breath sometimes before casting too many aspersions. Actually the chap in question is David Newman, Goldsmith's full-time election agent for Richmond Park Conservatives - I'm sure he's a lovely chap and all that, but he did make a bit of a spectacle of himself. Must have been an element of astonishment in there that they beat Susan Kramer! There is a nice picture of Jemima Khan with her shoes off at the count in the Mail - perhaps the wealthiest shoeless person ever to personally attend a British election?

On the minorities front, yes, the LibDem record is pretty dismal. Shame to see good Tory minority candidates like Shaun Bailey (who seems a pretty good guy to me) being beaten by Labour - but Hammersmith is another example of an inner-urban seat where Labour, astonishingly, actually increased their percentage!

longrun2 said...

@ David Boothroyd is wrong
If Brown knows that he is unable to form a government, he should resign and Her Majesty then invites someone else to see if he/she is able to form a government. There is no requirement to wait for any possible successor to conclude arrangements for a coalition before doing so and the Civil Service does not vanish in a puff of smoke if there is a few days delay in appointing a new cabinet.
It is possible for him to hang on until defeated in the House of Commons (as Baldwin did in 1923 when he had easily the largest share of votes and seats, and some hope that one faction of the Liberals would support him) but as the SNP has declared it will not enter into any form of coalition with any London party and Sinn Fein never attend, Brown is clearly unable to form a government that has the support of a majority in the House of Commons. Labour plus LibDems plus SDLP plus Alliance (linked to the LibDems) plus Plaid Cymru plus Green only makes 323 not 326. So Brown knows that he cannot obtain a majority through any coalition

Unsworth said...

@ tory boys

You've completely lost it, haven't you? Where did I indicate that we have a written constitution?

The remedial reading lessons are not going too well, clearly.

Unsworth said...

@ Jimmy

See tory boys 2:20 PM today.

What 'constitution'?

Jimmy said...


I suggest you start with Bagehot.

Fascinating stuff.