Wednesday, May 05, 2010

Help Predict the Election Result

The great thing about this election is that no one can be sure what the result is going to be. We all have our intuition, but frankly no one knows. But perhaps the wisdom of crowds can help readers of this blog predict the result better than the pollsters and pundits.

To that effect I have created a short poll for you all to take part in. There are four questions.

1. Who are you going to vote for?
2. Guess the percentages each party will get
3. Guess the seats each party will get
4. What is your predicted overall result?

And that's it. The poll will remain open until 10pm tomorrow, and I will post the results here by 10.30pm.


Anonymous said...

You've just p*ssed all over my parade:

It's lucky I like you!

Gareth said...

1) Self selecting surveys are silly!
2) On polling night I'll be channel flipping - to see who annoys me least.

PJH said...

You missed Channel 4 off question 7.

R Mutt said...

Somehow I doubt your readers are entirely neutral!

My prediction.

Vote share: Con 35%, Lab 29%, Lib Dem 24%.

Con largest party in hung parliament.

Seat distribution: Con 276, Lab 275, Lib Dem 70, SNP 8, Plaid Cymru 3.

Thorpe said...

There's an issue with question 4: my figures of
Con 36%
Lab 28%
Lib Dem 27%

...should leave a balance of 9% for the others. But the survey kept saying "must equal 100%" after entering 9%. Or is my brain just too addled after 13 years of Labournomics?

Banged out in frustration.

Dan Sullivan said...

Is it OK for those of us who are merely interested spectators, i.e. foreign types from Ireland etc to enter the competition?

Mark Yoxon said...

Think you should post (a link to) the current composition of the House of Commons for those of us who don't know how many seats the nationalists have. :)

I reckon there'll be a hung parliament; Con 37%, Lab 30%, Lib 25%.

Roland Deschain said...

Are you referring to party percentages before or after postal votes?

Eoghan said...


The way things are going, I think the Tories will gain the most seats in a hung parliament, probably enough to have a bash at a minority government and hope for the best. National vote share for the Lib Dems will not reflect the number of seats on a UNS, although they will do very well in all their target seats and could pull off some pretty spectacular gains here and there. I also think some hardcore Labour negative campaigning will let them hold onto some seats that you wouldn't expect.

Con 37% - Lab 29% - LD 26%. On UNS that leaves Con just short of 300, Labour around 250 and the Lib Dems in the 70s, and that sounds pretty reasonable to me, although I think the Liberals can hit 80. That would leave a Conservative minority government the most likely option, as the LibLab coalition would still be pretty weak in terms of a majority and there's no point in attempting a coalition if it only needs a handful of rebels from either side to vote bills down.

I will vote Lib Dem (in a three way marginal, so my vote actually counts!). To be honest I think all results are equally possible (Conservative minority, Conservative majority, LibCon coalition, LibLab coalition) but I rather suspect (to my horror) that a Conservative minority administration might be the way we're headed at the moment, unless something unexpected happens tomorrow.

ChristalPalace said...

1 - Lib Dems
2 - Cons=36, Lab=30, LD=26
3 - Lab=264, Cons=262, LD=86
4 - Another election within a year.

I also predict that Galloway will win in Poplar and Limehouse.

Anonymous said...

Result? the Daily Telegraph to go bankrupt.

I have just read a couple of threads on the telegraphs 3 Line whip blog and what a load of stinking fettid poo nthey are. And thats before you get to the oafish Jeremy Warner and the useless vomit inducing Heffer.

Nope - I will never buy that traitorous tabloid paper again. I never do now and resolve to err ... keep my resolution.

wild said...

My Predictions

If Brown continues in power the country is ******

If Labour continues in power propped up by the Liberal Democrats the country is ******

If the Conservatives are unable to form a working majority the country is ******

Jim Baxter said...

Can anybody have a majority of one seat? If a party gets 326 seats then they have a majority of two. If 325 then no majority.

Do buck up old chap. Or explain why it's me that's the eejit.

Bill Quango MP said...

ChristalPalace said 'I also predict that Galloway will win in Poplar and Limehouse.'

He's very popular. One chap I saw on Sky said he was so impressed with gorgeous that he has voted for him twelve times already.

Simon Gardner said...

In the mostly ‘none of the above’ constituency, Ladbrokes is offering 6/1 in Mr Speaker Bercow’s favour. One the ground, Mr Bercow’s posters have sprung up in the usual Tory places (ie fields). Ex MEP John Stevens is putting up a very stiff fight having found a new flexible form of election expenses limit. UKIP’s Nigel Farage seems to have completely given up and buggered off 10 days ago

Bill Quango MP said...

Con - 301
Lab - 231
lib - 84

Con minority govt with promise of fewer cuts to the nats.
Libs get zip from Dave.

Dual Citizen said...

Iain you should make the "which station will you be following the election" should allow multiple choices. I'll be flicking between BBC and Sky, and also check out you on LBC.

bewick said...

know what Iain. I a;eady knew that none of the 3 main contenders would totally reflect my views but twas always so. I did the "who should you vote for" quiz in the Telegraph which promises to show which party most closely reflects my views.
My views are probably similar to the majority, and various polls reflect that, and are far far from extremist. Just pragmatic
Guess what? The Telegraph says that my first choice would be BNP closely followed by the one trick pony UKIP.
This proves to me that the 3 main parties are totally ignoring the electorate so who knows what the result will be.
I happen to share SOME objectives with the BNP but long before Norman Tebbit called them left wing I already knew that they were actually left of left and not at all the "far right" which the MSM claims.
Neither they nor UKIP will have a snowball's chance in hell in my constituency so the only option has to be C.

A Sikh friend told me that he found the BNP policies highly attractive. His wife today asked me how she should vote. I refused to say but pointed her to the Telegraph and pointed out that a vote for a minority party in this area could have "unintended consequences".
The issue of course is that only a tiny minority of the electorate even follow politics in any detail and even fewer understand. They only look at headlines and "reality debates".
So if I had to bet my shirt then I'd keep it on my back and disappear into the woods!
My only solace is the real number of dyed in the wool Labour supporters who have volunteered to me without prompt "never again". Hope their resolve holds up.

lilith said...

Very funny Ian. Your poll can't do maths. Gave up.

Anonymous said...

@Simon Gardner. UKIPs are headless chickens. All they can do is joining Heffer in DT and rubbishing Cameron My information from my relative there is Loudmouth Farrage made no impression at all as people are not worried about EU, the Lisbon referendum etc.. as also Britain is out of Eurozone now. Still banging of EU by Farrage turned off voters. He cannot win in a FPTP system my relative says.

davemcwish said...

1. Who are you going to vote for?
Westminster - Tory
Local - Undecided (probably Tory)

2. Guess the percentages each party will get

Con - 35%
Lab - 28%
Lib - 27%

3. Guess the seats each party will get

Con - 301
Lab - 221
Lib - 98
SNP - 5
PC - 3
NI - 18
Other - 4

4. What is your predicted overall result?

* Lab/Lib coalition with Brown as PM - he gets 1st option under the current rules

* Lib Dems 3 cabinet positions with one of the 3 offices of state

* Bercow stays, Galloway and Balls lose

* BNP & Greens get nothing

* Brown to be 'replaced' by end of year by Miliband (D)

* The future ? - PR/AV/something else and impact on the Tories - let's not go there.....

Norfolk Blogger said...

I detect no great enthusiasm amongst Lib Dems I know for the party to be kingmakers to either Labour or Tories.

I suspect that it is in the Lib Dems advantage to let the Tories rule, tka responsibility and mess things up again whilst providing a stiffer opposition than the morally bankrupt Labour party.

Don't be surprised to see Lib Dems unwilling to do deals and don't think most Lib Dems would be sad.

As for %, I suspect Tories on 36%, Lab 28% and Lib Dem 28%

I also think the Lib Dems will get around 90-100 seats.

RJF said...

Wild, you are absolutely right!

A week from now all those folk who peddled the "A hung parliament will be really good" line will have disappeared.

"Who me guv'nor? Never said anything like that..."

Anonymous said...

The distribution of seats may not indicate who becomes prime minister.

I'm concerned with the Cabinet Office rules on a hung parliament which give Gordon Brown the first opportunity to form a government EVEN IF Conservatives gain most seats.

Not sure if, or how, these new rules differ from 1974. But I have traced Peter Mandelson as being behind them.

Who says who stays who goes?

Dave Gould said...

It almost doesn't matter how many seats each party gets. Here's what matters:

1. No party will have enough seats to form a government.
2. Labour & the LibDems will have enough seats between them to form a government. The Tories will be forced to match any significant offer from Labour.
3. Clegg has said that Labour significantly losing the popular vote won't provide them with a mandate.

Thus a Tory-LibDem coalition is inevitable barring a terrorist attack *cough* and has been so since March 25th.

All talk from the above parties pretending otherwise have been merely attempts to pretend there's an alternative for the sake of bargaining power.

John Pickworth said...

UK Polling Report has a handy (and easy to use) tool to calculate seats from share of the vote.

My prediction:

Conservative 35% (257 seats)
Labour 30% (286 seats)
Liberals 26% (79 seats)
Others 9%

A Labour minority (sadly).

Anonymous said...

1) No one: where I call home, we've never voted in British Parliamentary elections, which was half the reason we got so upset during the 1770s

2)For the big 3:
Conservative: 37
Lib Dems: 27
Labour: 26

3)Conservative: 331-335 (majority of 12 to 20), with one Independent Unionist in Ulster supporting them
Labour: 185-190
Lib Dems: 95-100
DUP: 9-10
SNP: 6-7
Sinn Fein: 5-6
Plaid Cymru: 3-4
SDLP: 2-3
UKIP: 1 (Nigel Farage)

4) Small Tory majority; blogosphere laments the boredom for five minutes until somebody asks, "So what happens to Gordon now."

As an aside, I once mentioned, off-hand, the Nokia stories with my seven year old. He is now the only American child who shouts "Gordon Brown!" whenever he gets ready to throw something.

Paddy Briggs said...

My guess is that Ashcroft will have won it for Dave. Higher swings in the marginals will pull the Conservatives near to an overall majority.

Anonymous said...

Iain, only 649 seats will be declared on Friday as Thirsk and Malton will be casting their votes on May 27th, due to the death of the UKIP candidate after nominations had closed.

Don't say you weren't aware of it when setting this up...