Friday, April 09, 2010

Tories End Week With 10 Point Poll Lead

I hear rumours from the campaign trail of a Harris Poll in tomorrow's Daily Mail which will show a ten point Tory lead, but with the LibDems closing on Labour. If my information is correct the figures are 37-27-22 with others on a massive 15%.

If this proves to be correct, the Tories will be pleased to finish the week with a double digit lead. I have to say I certainly don't believe Labour really is as low as 27%. The explanation would be that their support is haemorraging to the minor parties and the LibDems.

Over the last few weeks the 'others' support has reduced to 10%. I have to say I expect this to rise a bit during the campaign. There are going to be a lot of independent candidates and I think they will attract a lot of support from the 'a plague on all your houses' vote.

UPDATE: The Sun Yougov poll also gives the Conservatives a ten point lead - 40-30-20.

14 comments:

trevorsden said...

Harris have recently had a poll for the Metro; 37-28-20. So not much change from this - Lab on 28 then.

Silent Hunter said...

Great stuff.

I really hope the Lib Dems and others push Labour into third party status.

It's what Labour deserve after all the damage they have inflicted on this country.

Doctor Why said...

Labour on 27-28, and a relatively high figure for Others (15%) does seem credible to me.

Treacle said...

Is Brown doing a Macavity? On the day the election was called, he took a train to Kent to meet some party workers posing as members of the public and then slunk back to Downing Street, while Cameron went to Birmingham and Leeds. A couple of days ago an angry member of the public tried to talk to him and he jumped into his car and headed back to Downing Street. Today he went to Watford to have tea with a Labour party agent. Why isn't he travelling the country and meeting the voters? Isn't that what party leaders are meant to do?

Incidentally, Guardian moderators are busy deleting all pro-Tory postings on their website.

JohnofEnfield said...

This is beginning to reflect Labour's showing in last year's European elections.

I am of the opinion that Joe Public can tell a Liar when they see one.

Andy JS said...

I think 27% could be accurate. Angus Reid has similar figures. Labour voters are going to vote for minor parties in large numbers this time, and also quite a lot of them will probably decide not to bother voting at all.

In 1997 it wasn't just Tory voters switching to Labour which gave Blair his landslide; turnout dropped from 78% to 71% at the same time.

Twig said...

Labour politicians keep repeating the phrase "...because it's the right thing to do." after declaring any given policy proposal.

Is this some kind of mind control trick?

Are british people really that easy to manipulate? Surely not.

jailhouselawyer said...

Never mind the bleeding Poles! What do the British think?

Silent Hunter said...

Incidentally, Guardian moderators are busy deleting all pro-Tory postings on their website.

T'was ever thus! LOL

jojoko said...

Our local UKIP candidate is being cheered. He flies flags from his car which is covered in stickers & so far has only had 3 people blank him, and it was blanking, no barracking. This is a safe Tory seat but while campaigning today in a local village the UKIP candidate was welcomed and told we need someone new, the other parties are all the same. He is praying he doesn't lose his deposit but so far if he can get the people who support him to vote, he may well come 2nd. As he's my neighbour I hope he saves his deposit and as I personally know and dislike the Tory candidate, I hope he gets a good scare.

troymolloy said...

Forgive me Iain, but shouldn't the numbers add up to 100 max?

I think 27 I bloody good for Labour, considering.

http://tinyurl.com/vote-abbcc

Cynic said...

Even Labourlist forecasts a 10 point Tory win and a comfortable majority

http://www.labourlist.org/april-8-labourlists-poll-trends-towards-may-6th

Gordon will have poor Alex's sensitive parts in a vice

DespairingLiberal said...

Yes, but note that even with the wider Yougov lead, the Tories STILL do not get an overall majority - they would likely end up with 322 seats, with the winning post at 326. Shows the amazing mountain that the Tories have to climb and the sheer unlikelihood of them getting the result you have been forecasting Iain. I suspect the bookies have it about right, with the final result being less impressive than the 322.

neil craig said...

15% for "I'd rather vote for an unofficial candidate than any of the Triumvirate even though our corrupt electoral system won't count it & our state controlled media will censor any mention of them" is indeed spectacular.

Assuming the number who simply stay home means the "winner" may get 15% of the electors & all 3 together get less than half. Britain looks increasingly like Poland before the fall - economic collapse, state controlled media willing to tell any lie (eg catastrophic warming) but whom nobody trusts, idealogically driven nonsense everybody is required to profess but with no intellectual coherence, nominally several different parties but all indistinguishable & the rulers held in both contempt & hatred by the people (& vice versa).