Saturday, April 10, 2010

Saturday Night at the Polls

I imagine there will be a rash of polls tonight for me to discuss with Kate Bevan on the BBC News Channel paper review at 11.20pm. First out is ComRes for the Indy on Sunday...

Con 39 (+2)
Lab 32 (+2)
LD 16 (-4)
Other 13 (-)

Incl Green 3, Ukip 2,BNP 1

The only surprising thing about that poll is the dramatic fall of the LibDems. In every other recent poll they are around the 20 mark.

Other questions asked were: Are the Tories ready for govt? 44% agree, 44% disagree. but 54% say a Labour government is more likely to increase taxes than a Tory government.

UPDATE 8.30pm: Sunday Telegraph/ICM Con 38, Lab 30, LD 21.

UPDATE: 8.35pm: UK Polling Report analyses the NOTW ICM poll on marginals. Bear in mind these are not ALL marginals. "The poll covered 96 Labour held seats where the Conservatives need a swing of between 4% and 10% to win (so like MORI’s marginal polling, it straddles the 7% or so swing the Conservatives would need to win an overall majority – the Conservatives would need to take about half of these to win, if they won them all they would have a majority of about 100)."


norman said...

INDy had simialr lead in the last Poll. John Rentoul of Indy says that the following was asked:

-Neither Labour nor the Conservatives are being honest about how they would reduce public borrowing.

-The Conservative Party is not yet ready for government.

-A Labour government would be more likely than a Conservative Government to increase taxes.

-I think MPs’ ethical standards will be higher in the new parliament as a result of the reporting of expenses claims over the past year.

I stopped believing these opinion polls.

norman said...

It is interesting to read from this Indy poll that 29% think that Conservatives will have a majority as opposed to 25% for Labour. Also Libdem-Lab coalition happening is 26%.

This 29% is interesting!

Scrobs... said...

I keep getting strange telephone calls from people who claim to want to talk to me about this and that.

Do you think they may be 'Pollsters'?

I think I should be told...

Cynic said...

Labourlist's poll analysis projects at 6 May

Tories 41%
Labour 30%

Cynic said...

Perhaps the polls will look even worse for Gordon after the latest scandal they have been burying (literally)

Not content with taxing the pennies on your eyes, its now been exposed that Labour have been stealing peoples' actual eyes and other organs when they died. But its OK they say…just a small ‘data handling error’ with the records of potential donors

This led to some of them accidentally being carved up by mistake and the parts given to other people. Some relatives were even told their departed had signed up to donate when they hadn't.

And guess what? the Government has know about this for over 2 years and stayed sthum.

Dear God, is there nothing this Government wont stop at? Is there nothing they wont do?

Has anyone been fired? Of course not! Prosecuted .......noooo we dont do that sort of thing even though we pass law to make it a crime.

Just as well there’s an election on or Alan Johnston would have to go. What a loss that would be.

Ian said...

Very impressive performance by you tonight on the BBC News Channel just now

You appeared reasonable when she seemed itching for a fight. Every time she sought to open it out, you answered her with a fact that prevented her going that way

cassandra said...

BNP at 1% and greens at 3% and people still think the polls actually mean anything?

The polls are dead wrong, manipulated and perverted to suit a narrative, they have become as partisan and partial as a national newspaper.

Come the election there are going to be a great many puindits and so called experts feigning surprise that they were so wrong.
The opinion polls mean nothing,predict nothing and signify nothing. The only meaningful poll is coming soon.

Norfolk Blogger said...

I wonderd why of the three polls published you picked out this one ... then I saw it was the only poll that had the Lib Dems so low

Iain Dale said...

I didn't "pick it out". It was the first one I saw, and then I added details of the other two.

Don't be so sensitive, old chap.

Adrian said...

I'm going to try and do a rolling poll of polls, so I've got together all the polls so far this month:

Current poll of polls: C 39 L 31 LD 19 Oth 11. Not enough for a majority?