Friday, October 23, 2009

Brown Dealt Blow by Recession Figures

The figures released this morning showing that Britain remains in recession will come as a blow, not just to a government that has tried to talk things up, but to the whole country. This is apparently the longest recession in history, now that we have been in recession for six consecutive quarters.

France and Germany came out of recession six months ago. Will Gordon Brown admit that, contrary to what he said at the time, Britain was the least well prepared economy in Europe? Will he now admit that many of the measures the government have taken to get us out of recession haven't done what they were intended to do?

Not a chance. We have a government that hasn't got a single new idea about how to get the economy back on track. They've reduced VAT, borrowed to the hilt and even printed money. None of it has worked. Why? Because few people have confidence in their strategy - if that's what one could call it. People will only invest when they think things are on the right track.

George Osborne's task is to ensure that if and when he takes over at the Treasury, the money markets and small investors have confidence that he has what it takes to implement a new economic policy.

38 comments:

Anonymous said...

Most of the papers were talking up chances that we had come out of recesions this morning - Would this have been the govt spin machine working - in which case they all have egg on their faces now

Robert Barnes said...

Very disappointing figures & the longest recession since the Second World War.
The Government's strategy clearly has not worked & the architect of this economic chaos still thinks his policies to take us out of recession are the right way forward.
Think again, Prime Minister.
We need a change of direction, a change in economic policy & a change of Government.

Quietzapple said...

Apart from the blow to us, the British people, the principal blow is to Chameleon & Osborne, who have been advocating policies which would lead to a second recession, quite possibly a depression.

Will Osborne oppose the next round of Quantitative Easing? Will the 20% VAT which was touted in a poll of the "faithful" on Cons Home become their official policy?

Or will they have to rely on still more mad dog attack tactics in place of policy?

Anonymous said...

The reason this is lasting so long is because its a Depression.

I could be wrong of course but lets come back in a years time and see.

Scott1946 said...

Yes, what Goerge Osborne does in the first few weeks of a new Conservative government will likely be crucial to the confidence investors (and consumers) have in the UK economy going forward; no quick fixes, but the beginning of a sustained and sustainable recovery. One thing's for sure: George Osborne is about as different from Gordon Brown as two human beings in the same line of work could be. That alone has to be grounds for optimism!

Not a sheep said...

A suspicious person might think that the Nick Griffin furore was a deliberate diversion...


WV=atrap - I hope not.

Curbishlyauto said...

I have copied this from the Biased-BBC Website. I can vouch for it's veracity as I heard each news bulletin, on the "Today Prog." proclaiming the green shoots of recovery.

Then the truth was released. Oh how embarrassing.


6am - "Figures to be released this morning could show that the UK economy grew slightly in the third quarter of this year. If confirmed it would be the first quarterly growth since early 2008 and would mean that the recession is technically over."

7am and 8am - "Many analysts expect figures out today will show that the British economy has started growing again…"

8.30am - "The latest figures for gross domestic product due to be published in the next hour are expected to show the economy grew between July and September…"

10am - BBC News website:

The UK economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.4% between July and September, according to official figures, meaning the country is still in recession.

It is the first time UK gross domestic product (GDP) has contracted for six consecutive quarters, since quarterly figures were first recorded in 1955.

sceptical said...

Well said, Iain. The answer is:

1 Stop printing money
2 Raise interest rates (yes, even in a recession)
3 Cut taxes (direct ones, not VAT)
4 Bonfire of regulations - free up the private sector
5 Reduce the public sector - ie lay bureaucrats off, abolish quangoes, cut spending programmes.

The above will mean short-term pain (even higher unemployment) but long-term real gains - just like the 1980s. It worked then, it can work now.

Roger Dodger said...

The other reason why is because we are genuinely in the shit. All the bright ideas in the world won't wash away the effects of profligacy on this scale.

This is how every Labour government ends. Unfortunately this time they had the spin, the daft electorate and the initial boom to make it last 12 years.

The longer a Labour government lasts the more the pain.

This was by far their longest stint and will hurt more than any other.

It sucks watching your birthright flushed down the toilet by supine morons and realising all you can do about it is right daft comments like these on blogs like yours.

FireForce said...

U.K. PLC wil only start to get out of the recession 3/5 months after the Conservatives win the next election.
That was my prediction two + more years ago.
And yes I saw it coming, it happens every time the incompetent left are in power, and the next time they are in power it will happen again.

Peter Durward Harris said...

The government is bad, but I haven't heard anything that suggest the next government will be any better. No political party has anything to offer these days, so I will be abstaining at the next election. There was a time that the Tories could rely on my vote. Those days have long gone and they have a long way to go to convince me that they are worthy of government.

Johnny Norfolk said...

We have to reduce the state and spending, as we have said all along the longer it is left the worse it will be. They are just going to leave it to the Tories so they can blame them. The only thing Labour is any good at.
Pity it was not discussed on Question Time.Our Media and politicians appear to be in a different world.

Jon Hammond said...

Forget about powers to recall MPs.

Can we have powers to recall a Government please?

Weekend Yachtsman said...

It would take a heart of stone not to laugh, having heard the Beeb bigging up the fact that "Economist expect the recession to have ended" on every news bulletin (even on Radio 3!) early this morning.

Nice try, chaps, but your team is going down, get used to it.

Hawkeye said...

QuietzApple said: "the principal blow is to Chameleon & Osborne, who have been advocating policies which would lead to a second recession, quite possibly a depression."

Excuse me?

Who got us into this recession - was it Cameron and Osbourne? Err... no... it was Labour.

Who is in charge of our economy at the minute? Is it Cameron and Osbourne? No - it's Labour again.

Who said they eliminated 'Boom & Bust'? Who told us that we were 'best placed to weather the recession'? Who told us that recovery would have started in the UK by now? Who told us that the world should be following UK policies?

Did Cameron and Osbourne do any of that? No! It was Labour, Gordon Brown, Alstair Darling and that bunch of failed marxists that pass for a government.

Brown's record is one on unmitigated failure. Labour's record is one of failure. It is failing now, it has always failed and it always will fail because Labour, like all socialists, never deals with the truth. Instead they play games with truth and try and bend it match their warped perceptions of how they think things should be.

Labour do not do competence. Their only skills are in lies, deceit, spin and misdirection. You might believe the horse manure they dress up as policy and fact, but the rest of us will teach you a rather sharp lesson in the next six months or so - probably in early May.

I'm really looking forward to Election 2010.

Blackacre said...

Must say I was surprised. As a professional operating in the property market, it does not feel like a recession at the moment and I expected there to be growth. I am sure there will be when the figures are corrected in a month or two.

Paul said...

He won't admit anything. It's not in him...

Never Forget said...

sceptical - 11:55 AM - needs to look at what *actually* happens when Milton Friedman's ideas are implemented - as they were in Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia for example.

Hurf Durf said...

"who have been advocating policies which would lead to a second recession, quite possibly a depression."

As opposed to the first recession which we are currently in?

Your party is out of steam, at least have the decency to stay quiet while the rest of us fume.

Alex said...

France and Germany came out of recession fourmonths ago, at the end of the 2nd quarter, but it will be at least another 2 monhts before the UK comes out recession at the end of the 4th quarter, so I won't quibble too much.

pablopatito said...

"Why? Because few people have confidence in their strategy - if that's what one could call it. People will only invest when they think things are on the right track."

LOL! I guess you know your politics, but you're certainly no economist.

David said...

What they will say is that this proves that the Tory policy of cuttting Government spending is premature and precipitate.
They will ignore (again) that one of the largest drags on optimism and investment in this country is the catastrophic state of the public finances and the fear that the currency is going to be terminally trashed by QE.
Basically they will say that the same policies that got us into this mess must be pursued with ever more vigour until they succeed because Gordon is right and everyone should just accept that fact.
The election really cannot come soon enough for this benighted country.

Any Colour but Brown said...

There is one positive side to all of this. Whilst the private sector is still in recession, the public sector is still booming!

Just think, if Brown was given another term, Britain would be, effectively, a communist country by the end of it, with everyone working for the Govt and no private sector left.

Anonymous said...

brown and darling are not working,we need a new motor for the car.

they are just hopeless.i cant bare listening to their world recession lies any more.

they must be stopped with their reckless policies.

the next phase is their removal from office.

Rex said...

Well the answer for Broon is quite simple really. Just sack the governor of the Bank of England and all those people on the committee who keep telling the truth about the economy and put in his own people who will tell a load of porkies for him.
Job Done!!
Ed Ballsup has already showed how it's done!

Anonymous said...

"showing that Britain remains in recession will come as a blow...to the whole country"

Yes, but no surprise to those on the receiving end of it.

Anonymous said...

Darling told us this would be "the worst recession for 60yrs",he was shot down in flames.
Brown told us,"Britain is better placed to come out of this".
Darling told us,"we would be out of recession in June".
Brown told us HIS policies will get us out of the recession & EVERYONE else is stupid.
Darling told us,"HE expects us to come out of recession in the autumn".
Brown told us,"wait for the October GROWTH figures & the Nov Pre Budget Report".
NOW we have to wait again until the end of the year for GROWTH,which by the way there is BOUND TO BE due to Christmas.
What now Darling? Hope you enjoy the next couple of weeks running around trying to 'get your sums right'in time for your hyped up Nov Pre Budget Report,because you have HAD TO TEAR UP THE LAST LOT.
In the first quarter of next year there will be a DROP again as people pay their bills.
There will be a TINY bit of growth by the end of 2010, THEN in 2011-2012 we will start to PAY BACK the debt Brown & Darling have been PUTTING OFF.THEN we will see tax HIKES & spending SLASHED.
The economy MIGHT begin to crawl,
half dead for a long time before we see any of these green shoots Labour are searching for.Maybe 2015onwards.
SEE...Brown told us all along HIS way would work.
The media in this country make themselves look & sound more stupid & out of touch by the day.
If it wasn't for places like this I would have ended it all LONG AGO,at the thought of Labour getting back into power.It now looks like ALL THREE main parties will be lucky,to get a majority.
As for the 'experts',well what does a bumb arse middle aged woman like me know?
More than them apparently...how bloody smug am I while I walk round poundland having LEARNED to STOP buying brand names.While these political financial geniuses & financial experts spend their triple figure salaries.
Do NOT blame the public when we decide to IGNORE THE LOT OF YOU,
come election day.
Sky,BBC,Boulton,Robinson,the press.
We have lost faith and trust in ALL OF YOU and are now making decisions based on OUR INSTINCTS.
Que sera sera.As Doris would say.

James D said...

It gets better (well, the economy doesn't, but the irony does). Look at the description of tonight's Newsnight:

"Kirsty Wark presents a special programme from New York marking the 80th anniversary of the Wall Street Crash"

You have to laugh...

Any Colour but Brown said...

"Ahhh, yes, but it is the policies of the Tory Govt in waiting that have destabilised all my efforts to keep Britain best placed to weather the recession.
I'm getting on with the job - now, is it cox's orange pippin or granny Smith's?"


Word verification: "phickl" - the phickl phinger oph phate.

Anonymous said...

While the figures out today are alarming,they were EXPECTED by the average Joe.
The news commentators/political
/business correspondents all act & sound like they have been kicked in the gonads,after hearing their favourite uncle has died,while trying to save the family pet from burglers.
WHAT ELSE WHERE THEY EXPECTING?????
FGS!!STOP believing Brown & Co.
It is YOU,YES you Iain that will end up PAYING for this.All us low paid,working class will lose our jobs,YOU will pay our benefits.
No one connected to politics,
whether dolling out cr@p policies or reporting them as the best thing to happen,comprehend what is going on out here.

Quietzapple said...

Actually the figures show that over the three months to September Britain's economy was in recession.

Consistent with this is the possibility that our economy contracted in July but was expanding in Aug & Sept.

It is nearly November and there are various signs - such as the resurgence in economic activity assessed by Stobbarts as "very encouraging" - that the recession is over.

I have long forgone expressing my full disgust at the machinations of those who run my country down pretending to love her the while.

Quietzapple said...

Beggars belief that anyone can try and make out that Brown and co brought Britain uniquely into the recession, and, presumably, all those other countries too . . .

It is widely believed that Chameleon and George "Potato-Head" Osborne, had they hands on the machinery of state, would have plunged us into a second recession, perhaps a depression, by now.

So many forget . . . that swift action was necessary to stop the cash points drying up a year ago . . that Brown led the G20 to success . . . that the Tories questioned all the policies which have been used to bring about the recovery from the quarters where our economy contracted by 2.5% or so.

Many of your posters would be walking the embankment were it not for HMG. I recall the great Tommy Cooper song, and invoke its final words:

"Just take a walk in the park, and there you can jump in the lake."

Victor, NW Kent said...

Quietzapple

There was not one single quarter in which the economy contracted by 2.5% let alone "quarters".

The greatest contraction of this depression was 1.4&% in a quarter - by far the greatest - but the current rate is disturbing and shows no evidence of any recovery at all.

The Great Depression of the Thirties showed a total contraction of 10% and an artificial recovery was only occasioned by the war and that was fuelled by debt.

The trumpet sound that Brown "lead the G20 to success" rings very flat. No G20 country at all did what Brown wanted. He had his moment of glory, a huge photo-op and they all went away and did exactly what they wanted. Nobody cut VAT, nobody went into debt to start a green revolution, nobody lowered their VAT rate, nobody engaged in quantitative easing except the USA. Just Brown was out of step.

Quietzapple said...

Victor, you waste my time:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2009/mar/09/economicgrowth-economy

Quarter GDP change

2008 Q2 335163 -0.07 35
2008 Q3 332733 -0.73 36
2008 Q4 326810 -1.78 37
2009 Q1 318659 -2.49 38
2009 Q2 316790 -0.59 39
2009 Q3 315523 -0.4 40

Obviously you belong to the school of thought which regarded Mrs Thatcher's doubling of VAT from 8 to 15% as a 87.5% increase . . .

Oh, and the expansionary policies advocated at the G20 have been used in many countries, try the FT.

But then you knew that, your time wasting presumably deliberate.

"The European Central Bank has targeted the short-term money markets, which it has flooded with liquidity and covered bonds, with plans to buy €60bn in these securities to boost demand and activity."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3434d016-6b56-11de-861d-00144feabdc0.html While we may not have had enough Quantitative Easing . . .

Peter Durward Harris said...

Hey, Quietzapple,

With all those Google Ads in your own blogs, you're really just a capitalist at heart, aren't you? A true socialist would never sup with devil like that, now would they?

Quietzapple said...

Irony, Peter Dear Boy, Irony . .

And you may note my fulminations that some Tory Loon in Watford was selected to advertise chez moi if you look hard enough on "Musings"

Look forward to your cheque, to compensate . . . my guess is you didn't read any of the ads either . . .

Oh, and I haven't described myself as a socialist for some years, have I? I used to wonder what the word most usefully meant, it is mostly a label for the convenience of tory trolls surely?

They do tend to take their convenience rather randomly off course . . .

Anonymous said...

Brown is now telling the world that Britain will be out of recession next year.

Whatever happened to Britain being out by the end of the year?

Quietzapple said...

If the UK is out of the recession this year, and we avoid a Geo "Mr Potato Head" Osborne rerun we shall be out of the recession next year too.

As the figure for July - Sept show a -(minus) 0.4% "Growth" and it is quite possible that the economy contracted by 0.5% in July, was static in Aug and grew by 0.1% in September we may have been out of the recession for some time.

The figure for Oct - Dec will presumably be released late jan, so it is nit picking to query the difference between saying we shall be out of it in Dec 2009 rather than Jan 2010.