Friday, March 03, 2006
Guido's Good Week Bad Week
My mate Guido Fawkes has cleaned it up down the betting shop this week over the LibDem leadership race, although Adam Boulton did hit his profits somewhat. Er, what? you may ask... Well it's too complicated for a simple non-betting person to explain, so let Guido do it for you HERE. Interestingly, he predicted the result down to the last per centage point. Unlike YouGov, unlike Mike Smithson at PoliticalBetting.com. What a rascally little terrorist he is. All hail to the Guido. Maybe I should start learning about this betting mularky. There's clearly a lot of money to be made on it. It seems to me that the bookies haven't quite got their act together on political betting. Perhaps Guido should change career...
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We didn't get the percentages exactly right, but we did better than the Indy, the Guardian, ICM and YouGov however.
That's not a reflection on YouGov. We used YouGov's raw data and aggregated the Ming sponsored poll with the Huhne sponsored poll. Both of which had, we felt, an element of push-polling in. We figured that by combining them we would negate the inbuilt bias from the leading questions in each of the polls.
It worked, we openly published our analysis the day before yet few people believed us.
We bet the shop and took money off Huhne's market manipulator.
More Margaux anyone?
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