Osborne Shoots Labour's Fox

As I type this, Alan Johnson is doing his best to revive the fox which George Osborne shot. It doesn't look as if he is being very successful. Playing for laughs on a day of utter seriousness if not a very wise strategy, but I suppose he has to hide his lack of economic competence somehow.
George Osborne spoke for an hour. He announced many things which were uncomfortable and unpalatable, but most people in their heart of hearts know were necessary. To misquote Paul Keating, these were the cuts we had to have. Were they as drastic as some of us thought they should be? No, not quite. Were they as hard hitting as Labour were expecting? No. But will they be attacked as vicious and uncaring by the left and their allies? Of course they will. That's politics.

But the fact that at the end George Osborne was able to announce that instead of the 20% average cuts Labour announced in their budget his cuts amounted to an average of 19% rather shot Labour's fox. We all know that if Labour had been in power now, they would have had to announce similar cuts in spending. We know that. They know that. So their attacks on 19% cuts will ring rather hollow.

One Law for Vince, One Law for George

Yesterday, ConservativeHome reported that Nick Clegg had had "a good day". On the surface maybe. In a speech launching the Liberal Democrats’ manifesto policies, Nick Clegg told reporters he was ‘deadly serious’ about tackling the budget deficit. So far so good.

But, unsurprisingly for the LibDems, they’re not sure whether to cut or not to cut, or by how much to cut...

• Nick Clegg sticks to Government deficit reduction plans. Despite Nick Clegg’s tough talk, he has sided with the Government’s position on reducing the deficit and has overruled his Treasury spokesman Vince Cable on tackling the deficit. Speaking in Parliament, Cable said:

My party takes the view that the government’s eight-year plan, with a four-year halving of the deficit, is a reasonable starting point. My judgment is that we will probably discover that it is not enough, but we have to start somewhere and it is a reasonable working assumption. (Hansard, 7 January 2010: Col. 331)

Cable warns that Government plans are ‘optimistic’...

‘The current Government’s plans for a correction of 6.4 per cent of GDP over 8 years are optimistic. They underestimate the size of the structural deficit, assuming a brisk economic growth rate of over 3 per cent per annum after 2011-12. They place too much reliance on cuts in capital spending; due to halve from 2010-11 to 2013-14 while current spending will face real cuts of only 2.3 per cent per year. And they fail to address how the tightening will be made from 2014-15 to 2018-19.’ Source.

Also, in the Guardian yesterday Vince Cable was quoted as saying....

Cable told MPs: "My party takes the view that the government's eight-year plan, with a four-year halving of the deficit, is a reasonable starting point... My judgment is that we will probably discover that it is not enough, but we have to start somewhere and it is a reasonable working assumption.

Vince Cable still revels in his hero status among political observers. But think about this. Imagine if George Osborne had said: "My party thinks this, but my judgement is different". He would be slated for it and accused of splitting his party. Why is Vince Cable not accorded the same treatment?

George Osborne: Gordon Didn't Write to my Wife

George Osborne has just given what I think is probably his best ever interview. It concentrated on the budget, but at the end of the interview Andrew Marr asked him about Gordon Brown's apology. "Gordon Brown hasn't written to my wife," he told Marr. That's not what we were told at the beginning of the week. We were told by Number Ten that the PM had written peronal letters to those mentioned in the smear emails. Why didn't the Shadow Chancellor's wife receive such a letter?

UPDATE 12.18: In the original of this post I wrote that George said that he hadn't had a letter either. I clearly misheard, as several readers have pointed out. But the fact remains that his wife did not receive an apology from Gordon Brown, and should have.

Why Conservatives Should Man the Barricades for Osborne

I haven't blogged about the George Osborne situation until now because I didn't feel I had anything to say which either hadn't been said before or which would add to the sum of human knowledge. Maybe I still haven't. Anyway, let's look at the facts, rather than some of the hyperbole and fiction which has been spouted during the course of the day.

This is how I read what has happened...

1. George gossiped to journalists about what Mandy said about Gordon. An understandable thing to do bearing in mind his return to government. Perhaps he should have kept it zipped, but we have all done it. Normally, embarrassment is the only consequence of being found out. Ahem.
2. Mandy was outraged and promised revenge. Nat Rothschild was none too impressed, and goaded by Mandy, decided to take things further.
3. It was a mistake to do the live TV press conference before issuing a detailed rebuttal statement.
4. The media hasn't yet asked itself what crime has been committed. Answer none. No money has been donated so there has been no wrongdoing.
5. If someone asks you, as a politician, or as a party employee about donating you have two choices. You either point them in the direction of someone else or you explain how the system works and what the legalities are. That is not a crime. It is not even a thought crime. Yet.
6. So what we are talking about here is an allegation that a conversation about a donation took place. As Stephen Tall says, this is a bit of a he said-she said-he said situation. Rothschild says he has a witness to the conversation. Why hasn't he produced the witness then?

It's clear that the root of this is that Rothschild is furious that Osborne has broken the unwritten rule that says 'what happens on tour, stays on tour'. And he has exacted his revenge in a particularly spiteful way.

The media is in full herd instinct mode without actually stopping to think: hang on a minute. What's he actually done wrong? What law has he broken? What rule has he transgressed? Perhaps they might like to concentrate a little more on this sentence from Nick Robinson's blog this morning.

Mandelson's first instinct was to refuse to answer questions about what he said was his private life. He knew all too well that the way the media can keep a story running is to publish a list of "unanswered questions". This approach did not, however, kill the story. Nor did the backing of the EU Commission which declared him not guilty of a breach of the rules. So far, no evidence has been produced that he broke any rules but there's little doubt that had he behaved this way as a cabinet minister he would have been in breach of the ministerial code which advises against perceived conflicts of interest.

Isn't that far more serious than anything George Osborne has been accused of? But I didn't comment on Mandelson's situation any more than I had intended to comment on George's. But it has now blown up into such a ridiculously big story that those of us who happen to think a lot of George Osborne need to stand up and say so. His detailed chronology of events is well worth reading in full. It is unprecedented in its detail. Its message to Mandelson is: I've shown you mine, now you show me yours.

ConservativeHome has published a superb piece on why George Osborne is indispensable and it reminds us why the barricades need to be manned in his support.

The lessons here are...

1. Politicians are never 'off duty'.
2. Choose your holiday companions more carefully.
3. What happens on tour rarely stays on tour.

And above all...

4. Peter Mandelson is back and making sure we all know it. And isn't Times Political Editor Phil Webster a happy man! As is Robert Peston.

Peston hasn't liked Osborne's comments about his role in last week's events and this has given him a reason to hit back. Mandy's briefing fingerprints were all over this particularly poisonous blogpost from Peston this afternoon. Quite what this has to do with the BBC's Business Editor is another question. Perhaps Nick Robinson should talk to him about tanks and lawns.

It's been a pretty torrid week for the Shadow Chancellor. But every politician has to go through character building experiences like this. Osborne should take heart from the way his leader performs in these circumstances. Cameron displays courage under fire which we must all hope George Osborne can emulate. He is as vital to the Cameron project as Tord Grip was to Sven. He must also trust his instincts. I do not believe he wanted to do that wretched press conference this afternoon and should not have allowed himself to be talked into it. He's got an instinctive political brain. Now is the time for him to engage it.

Politics has changed in the last few weeks and for once, I don't think Conservative High Command realised it quickly enough. Trench warfare lies ahead. Sod bipartisanship. Brown hasn't got a bipartisan bone in his body. He regards the very notion of it as a sign of weakness. Brown wants a fight. Let's give him one.

Osborne Says: 'I Feel Your Fuel Pain'

George Osborne's idea of a fuel duty stabiliser is attracting attacks because it is fundamentally a good idea. It also demonstrates the Tories understand the damage fuel price rises are doing both to the economy and to family budgets. In other words, Osborne is saying: "I feel your pain". Osborne has opened the plan up to consultation and has made clear it is not yet a pledge. The important point is that the Shadow Chancellor he has signalled he wants to do something on fuel duty, which the man in the street will appreciate. Vince Cable has something of a point when he says the idea is somewhat dependent on predictions of future oil prices, I suspect, but that doesn't mean the idea is flawed.

Labour has so far done nothing at all on fuel duty, beyond hinting that it will shelve the 2p rise in October. Big deal.

Bitchfight at Treasury Questions

George Osborne and Gordon Brown had a right set-to in Gordon Brown's final Treasury Questions this morning. Not a lot of love lost there...

George Osborne: "Can I join in congratulating you on the remarkable
achievement of surviving 10 years at the Treasury - even if it was twice as long
as you wanted. On the question of employment and jobs, can I ask you about the
biggest employer in the country, the Secretary of State for Health (Patricia
Hewitt). "You are reported to have said of her this week: 'I have to sit here
while she loses me the next election'. "Can we take it then that she'll soon be
joining the record numbers of people who are economically inactive?"

Gordon Brown: "Our Government has invested more in the health service, with
more results. "It`s difficult to listen to what you say on one day because
usually you will have changed your mind by the next - as on grammar
schools. I understand you have just given an interview to Glamour magazine
and the interview has been issued with a free pair of flip-flops. You should
take advice from your leader (David Cameron). Only a few days ago he said:
'We`ve got a successful economy'. "Why - because we`ve got a Labour
Government."

George Osborne: "At least I don't appear in glossy mags talking
about what I listen to on my Ipod! You've just hung the Health Secretary
out to dry. No wonder you write books about political courage instead of
appearing in them. The fact is that the NHS job loses, ward closures and the
crises are your doing because it was your NHS plan, your Wanless report, your
money without reform. Does the anger junior doctors feel about their employment
prospects explain why one Downing Street aide said this week of you: 'I think
he'll be the first Prime Minister to be carried out of No 10 by the men in white
coats' - or was he getting at something else?"

Gordon Brown: "I`ve been up against seven shadow chancellors in the last 10
years but you are the only one who never actually asks me about inflation,
interest rates or the economy. Every time we have a question about employment
and economic activity you want to change the agenda. It is because we have
invested twice as much in the NHS that we do not have the waiting times and
waiting list crises that the last Conservative government had. It is because we
have managed the economy well that we are able to invest in public services.

Girls, girls...

Osborne: Tories Will Prevent New Grammar Schools From Opening

I was under the mistaken illusion that the grammar school issue had been put to bed and that the party leadership wanted to close down the debatre. The Press Association has just disabused me of that notion...

Shadow Chancellor George Osborne risked stoking the bitter education row further
today by indicating that a Tory government would actively prevent new grammar
schools being opened. Mr Osborne insisted that countries in the "mainstream" of thinking on education - such as America - would not allow selective schools to appear. Pressed by a Conservative activist from Buckinghamshire on whether the party would permit them to open new grammars which had local support, Mr Osborne said: "We don't believe in schools choosing pupils. We believe in pupils choosing schools. "That is where the mainstream of the education debate is all around the world. You go to the United States, you go to other countries in Europe, that's what they are talking about. They wouldn't allow schools to emerge and take funding that had academic selection as a criterion for entry. That is the mainstream education debate in the rest of the world and we're suggesting that Britain and the Conservative party joins that mainstream debate. His comments were immediately attacked by former shadow Europe minister Graham Brady, who resigned yesterday in protest at the policy. Mr Brady - the first front-bencher to quit under David Cameron's leadership - said the Conservative position of keeping the 164 existing grammar schools but ruling out creating any more was "illogical". "This question highlights the illogicality of supporting popular selective systems but preventing them from expanding when parents want them to," the MP for Altrincham and West Sale said. "If population is growing in a selective Local Education Authority area, whether it's Buckinghamshire or Trafford, surely new grammar schools should be available.

Unless they have completely changed their secondary schooling system Germany operates an entirely academically based selection procedure to decide which pupils should go to a Gymnasium (Grammar School), Realschule or Hauptschule.

What on earth was George Osborne thinking of by giving this answer? I thought Conservatives believed in the freedom of parents to start new schools. We criticise Labour for having a £2 million barrier to entry, and yet we are seriously suggesting that we should prevent people opening schools in a format which has a fantastic record of academic excellence and promoting social mobility.

Careless Talk Costs Defections

I have another column in the Telegraph today, which you can read in full HERE. This is an excerpt...

Two years ago, Mark Oaten - then a rising star in the Liberal Democrats - told a leading Conservative that his party's generation was hungry for power and would go out and seek it. He had just published The Orange Book with his political soulmate David Laws, and was taken aback by the opprobrium from Left-of-centre Liberal Democrats. It was at that point that some of the Orange Bookers started to think long term; several found the prospect of 20 years on the Lib Dem benches a pretty soul-destroying prospect and their policy positions on many issues - tax, welfare reform and public services - were not poles apart from those adopted by liberal Conservatives.

Oaten came very close to defecting to the Conservatives in the autumn of 2005. As Lib Dem home affairs spokesman he was frustrated by the party's opposition to his tougher approach on crime, and, in particular, terrorism: but the Tories were choosing a leader and Oaten's bargaining position was weak, so he stayed put. David Cameron nearly claimed his first scalp two months into his leadership. Rumours had been swirling around Westminster of an imminent Lib Dem defection. I wrote on my blog that David Laws was about to jump ship. It was then that I received a phone call from someone close to the Cameron set who asked if I could tone it down a little as things were "at a delicate stage".

If Laws is to be believed, George Osborne's attempt to lure him across - then, or later - was less a political seduction than a "wham bam, thank you ma'am". Laws has been telling Tory MPs this week that Osborne asked abruptly, without any political foreplay, whether he wanted to defect or not. He was so taken aback that he spluttered "not".

In a GMTV interview at the weekend, Osborne confirmed that he had held discussions with Laws and was also talking to Labour MPs. The first rule of political defections is that you not only keep any discussions secret from your own side, you don't talk about them on television either. Afterwards, Osborne knew he had made a mistake, but the damage had been done.

The Tories and Lib Dems are becoming allies of convenience on issues where they have common ground. Nick Clegg, the Lib Dems Home Affairs Spokesman and leader-in-waiting, has been astonished at how similar his views are to those of David Davis, whom he had previously regarded as a hardline Right-winger. Cameron confidante Ed Vaizey has been deputed to cosy up to the Lib Dems. His recent trip to the Arctic Circle with Nick Clegg may not have resulted in a defection, but eight hours a night in an igloo can hardly have failed to bring them closer.

The Cameron inner circle ought to remember the Second World War maxim: careless Talk Costs Lives," except they should replace the "lives" with "defections".

UPDATE: More councillors defect to Tories HERE.

Osborne Confirms Defection Approaches

George Osborne has given an interview to the GMTV Sunday Programme in which he talks openly about approaches he has made to LibDem AND Labour MPs, urging them to cross the floor. I'm not sure how wise this is. The David Laws incident is well known but it is the first time he has confirmed that Labour MPs have been approached. I suppose Kate Hoey and Frank Field would have been the obvious targets. Here's the extract...

Gloria del Piero:
There were rumours that you asked David Laws to join the Tories and said he could get a Shadow Cabinet post. Clear that one up for us…
George Osborne: Well it was a private conversation between the two of us and only one person went and told the press about it, I guess, because it wasn’t me, so you’d better go and get David Laws on your programme and he will tell you. Or maybe he won’t.
Gloria del Piero: What were the consequences of that conversation?
George Osborne: He’s still a Liberal Democrat MP.
Gloria del Piero: Do you wish he wasn’t?
George Osborne: We are a big tent. We welcome in people from across the political spectrum. We’ve got councillors who have switched over to us and there’s a real sense at the moment that the excitement is with us, that people are coming to join us. In my own local area people are coming to join my local party. And you know there are quite a lot of ideological soulmates out there who say ‘Well hold on, actually the Conservative party are the future and actually this lot have had their go and they’re the past.’
Gloria del Piero: So are you and your colleagues talking to other Liberal Democrats?
George Osborne: We talk to lots of people. Labour MPs are well.
Gloria del Piero: You’re talking to Labour MPs?
George Osborne: Let me just tell you, let me just tell you, I’m not sure I can promise you that on GMTV we would reveal any defections first, but I promise you I will certainly come on this programme if we get anyone defecting.
Gloria del Piero: But are you telling me that you’ve had conversations with Labour MPs
George Osborne: Well, I’ve had conversations with Labour MPs and Liberal Democrats but no-one yet has taken the bait.

So to all the Tories who are reading this, which Labour & LibDem MPs would you feel comfortable welcoming into the Conservative Party?

UPDATE FROM PA: "David Cameron today launched a bid to woo Liberal Democrat voters, telling them there is a home for them in his "modern, moderate Conservative Party". Accusing Tony Blair and Gordon Brown of causing a breakdown in trust in politics, the Tory leader called for Liberal and Conservative supporters to "rally together behind an alternative government-in-waiting". And he said the time was right for a "new Liberal-Conservative consensus" combining individual freedom and social responsibility.