Mike Smithson of
PoliticalBetting.com has written a fascinating WHAT IF style article on the result of the next election
HERE on
ConservativeHome this morning. Like me, he thinks a hung Parliament is the most likely result of the next election. He believes Gordon Brown would form a minority adminstration which would be voted down on the Queen's Speech. He further speculates that David Cameron would then form his own minority administration but offer the LibDems enough to keep them from voting down a Queen's Speech. He thinks a formal Con-Lib pact is unlikely.
I must say that all my conversations with LibDem friends in Parliament suggest that is true. They say they would not entertain a formal pact without a commitment to electoral reform. For most Conservatives it is inconceivable that they would support any move to elect the House of Commons by any form of PR - myself included. I can, however, see merit in a second chamber and local councils being elected under a different electoral system to first past the post. But in itself, even if that were to be on offer from the Conservatives I suspect the LibDems would indulge in a bit of cutting off of noses.
One thing is sure, as the election comes ever closer, these debates will gather momentum.
In my Telegraph column today I have returned to the subject of electoral reform, and ask whether Brown's plans are just a way of trying to keep the Tories out of power forever. Check out the latest HEFFER CONFRONTED video (click on the video box over to the right) where Simon and I discuss the merits or otherwise of President Sarkozy.
