Thursday, May 06, 2010

Are the BBC/ITN/Sky About to Have Egg on Their Faces?

So the exit poll shows the Tories on 307 seats, 19 short of an overall majority. Don't panic chaps and chapesses. My view is that by 4am this poll will have been shown to be wrong. It seems too incredible to be true that the LibDems are only predicted to get 59 seats. I'll run naked down Whitehall if that turns out to be true.

In 1992 the BBC exit poll predicted a Hung Parliament. We got a Tory majority of 21. Will histroy repeat itself? I wouldn't bet against it.

I'd like to see what the per centages were, but they don't seem to have been released.

UPDATE: Channel 4 report the per centages are 38-28-23.

54 comments:

Norfolk Blogger said...

I think they will have egg on their faces.

Lib Dems will not lose three seats net AND I think the Tories will just have an overall majority.

Nic said...

If you end up running naked down Whitehall can you promise to notify us all as to time?

Kieran said...

These polls won't contain postal votes though will they? and we can guess what's been going on there.

Navy Red said...

I'm liking the C4 Alt Election - strange but engaging

Duggers said...

Totally agree Iain.

I don't think voters have been totally honest with the pollsters.

denverthen said...

Spot on comment, Mr D. I think that's a pretty amazing first exit poll for the Tories, given everything, comparatively.

If a hung parliament outcome is the result (and I doubt it - I think, possibly like you, it's a sign the Tories have won) it'd be one that would have to be seen as a Tory moral and numerical victory.

Fine by me.

I Squiggle said...

I just got a hint on the BBC of people being turned away at 10.00 unable to vote. In my constituency in Streatham, the small school where I have voted for more than 10 years was similar. At 7.30 tonight there was a queue of more than 60m to the desk. A single desk, where normally there is at least two, sometimes more. I saw several people arrive at the back of the queue then walk away. I have never queued for more than two or three people in front of me in previous votes. What the heck is going on? Have others had a similar experience?

Fenn said...

Hope to god you are right Iain, won`t be able to sleep tonight thinking ther might be the slightest chance of this scotch despot clinging to power.

trevorsden said...

Based on 38-28-23 then UNS gives it something like 316-237-67.

Not a sheep said...

'I'll run naked down Whitehall if that turns out to be true.' Rash, very rash...

Craig Ranapia said...

I guess exit polls are a way to 'sex up' the dull hours after the polls close, but there's no actual news to report. But it just points up to me how obsessed the media are with getting the "scoop", when it's more important to get it right instead of right now.

Cardinal Richelieu's mole said...

The case for retrospective voting - i.e. being allowed to go back and change your vote once you know the (preliminary) result was never made more eloquently than in these few words -

"It seems too incredible to be true that the LibDems are only predicted to get 59 seats. I'll run naked down Whitehall if that turns out to be true"

Scan said...

Instead of the cost of another election, could someone suggest we use Duckworth-Lewis?

Weygand said...

Must agree - more smoke and mirrors; just like Cleggmania.

The Labour vote is overestimated - I reckon a larger number of seats for both Conservatives and Lib Dems.

If I am right, it is time to expose these polls (many of which are contradictory) for the crap that they are.

I Squiggle said...

Further to my post at 10.25 re queues to vote – that was based on my experience based on one report on the BBC. Now there are loads of similar stories of queues. This is absolutely disgusting, what is this? Gerrymandering? I didn’t add that the person in charge of our polling station was arguing with a visiting returning officer personage about the fact they only had one ballot box and she wanted another, he got hold of a wide ruler looking thing and stuffed the ballots down inside the box and said it will do. She was not convinced, and I discussed that with her. She wasn’t happy. I’m not surprised, he was giving that box a right stuffing; how many spoilt ballots in that box?

Nigel said...

Exit polls are beginning to look silly.

JuliaM said...

"I'll run naked down Whitehall if that turns out to be true."

Yikes!

robonly said...

I can see some challenges to results in the courts this year....

David Anthony said...

According to the BBC calculator it would be approx.

Con - 38.6%, Lab - 29.7%, Lib - 22.2%, Other - 9.4%

Image - http://img339.yfrog.com/img339/8519/exitpoll.jpg

DespairingLiberal said...

Fascinating that it is in Tory-controlled Chester & West that we find polling stations rejecting voters in the late hours (typical Labour voting period) in a Labour/Tory super-marginal on the grounds that they can't find newly registered people on the register. I'm sure it's all just a total co-incidence.

mutleythedog said...

the Labour Party seems to be rigging the election - when will a Greek style response be needed?

FAIRFACTS MEDIA said...

After the allegations of postal voter fraud, it is clear ZanuLiarbore cannot run an election.
This truly shows what a shambles of a regime ZanuLiarbore has become.
Zimbabwe mark 2 is not so far fetched after all.

GW said...

Retain trousers and refrain from mentioning hung anything.

happyuk said...

Duggers, May 06, 2010 10:24 PM

That's actually putting it mildly. The reality is that people lie like dogs.

Many say they will not vote, and still end up voting. And vice versa. Many people, especially older people are uncomfortable with saying who they will vote for and end up saying they will abstain, vote for someone else etc etc.

Coupled with data manipulation, false causality and loaded questions, these are some of the reasons why most polls are not taken seriously by professional statisticians.

The Military Wing Of The BBC said...

20-30 overall concervative majority

Some kind of massive cheat going on to try to get a re-run in many seats.

Cheating, cheating bastards.

happyuk said...

I really hope the BBC et al end up having to scrape yolk off egg-encrusted faces for decades to come.

Some memories as McDooms end approaches:

A Downing Street staffer telling the Independent that the Prime Minister is “psychologically and emotionally incapable of leadership of any kind.”

MacNutter’s bad-tempered attacks on chairs, tables, phones and anything else that came to hand.

Staffers accusing the PM of being “pathetic” and indulging in self pity.

It would seem no one had a good word to say for poor old Shrek at all.

Apart, presumably from his office supply company.

Not a sheep said...

The answer would appear to be NO.

Bibliotekari said...

I don't know about "by 4am", but as I write, shortly before going to bed at 5am, the BBC website gives seats so far as 222, 165, 35. Exit poll projection was 305, 255, 59. So the Tory-Labour gap is already wider than the poll's predicted final outcome - and given that the later-to-declare seats are more likely to be rural and therefore Tory than Labour, I anticipate this gap will grow still further.

Folks, we're creeping towards that magic finishing line ;)

JoeF said...

Are you going to post photos of running naked down whitehall?

(actually, please don't)

JoeF said...

Re voters being turned away, stations running out of votnig slips, etc

At the rick of being proved wrong, seems to have only happened in Labour & Lib Dem areas. Obviously Sheffield, Manchester, Newham et al need better management

Manfarang said...

UCUNF have come to nothing.

madbreak said...

It looks like you might - please wear your underpants on your head so we can be spared your blushes.

Looks very much like it could be Cons+LD as Labour+LD has no chance of getting up nor Cons+UU.

Anna said...

Still hangin' on in there - close on 6am, and exhausted, but not entirely surprised that so far there is no overall Conservative majority. Not because I think they don't deserve it, but because anecdotally I've seen so much evidence of tribal Labour voting that takes no account of reality..My soon-to-be son-in-law is a prime example of David Cameron's 'Big Society' - he puts so much into his east London neighbourhood, runs a thriving youth club, has turned around knife carrying idiots and seen them into university, other productive pursuits, rails against idiot health & safety measures that so constrict the activities. Also in his young life, 26, has seen his family become the only white family in his street, which does give him issues with immigration. He's also an enterprising & successful entrepreneur with a thriving young business, and rails against the red tape & stealth taxes he encounters. His grandfather is a C of E minister, he & my daughter hope he will conduct their marriage. We all know that Labour's infernal secular agenda marginalises marriage, commitment & faith. But he still voted Labour. I just can't rationalise that.

golden_balls said...

can you name the time and place please iain ?

Oliver said...

It seems too incredible to be true that the LibDems are only predicted to get 59 seats. I'll run naked down Whitehall if that turns out to be true.

Classic.

Sean Haffey said...

Do let us know the time and date of your run ;-)

miko said...

Regarding the polling stations,I went to my local one - the same as Sean Haffey's,by the way, at 7am yesterday morning and was astonished at the very poor organisation.
The man in charge did not and could not work out how to tear off the ballot papers and so was ripping them until he worked out that the perforation was lower down the ticket.

The two women on the desk had NO idea what they had to do - by 7.05am the queue stretched out of the hall.They had to look up your name and then cross it off with a pencil and ruler!

I came out thinking that it may just be that polling station but it sounds like the same all over the country.

And yet half a mile away is a Tesco's where they SCAN each bar coded product through the tills - why on earth can't the ballot papers be bar coded and you simply get scanned through the system.

Incredible,simply incredible.

javelin said...

I got this spot on. It wasn't difficult 48/50 of the last polls predicted this.

I also got it spot on that Gordon would try to form a Government. New Labour has no honour. Clearly Im the only person who has believed everything that I and every body else has said about them.

Next prediction. Gordon will offer the Lib Dems a referendum on PR as late as possible in the next term on the basis that the libdems would pull the plug the day after the vote.

He will offer deputy pm to Clegg. He will offer chancellorship to vince cable to get rid of Darling and soothe the electorate.

Gordon will also step down. Which could make Clegg the PM during the vote but he won't do that. He will let harman become temp Pm which will open the door to clegg as deputy.

golden_balls said...

foolish comment to make but fun all the same. Will iain stand by his promise ?

tapestry said...

With many thousands prevented from voting in marginal constituencies, this election is invalid and must be reheld within a month.

Gordon Brown said he was “very concerned” by the matter and politicians from all sides called for a thorough investigation.


That’s hardly sufficient response to this

With polling stations unable to cope with demand, thousands of people were still queuing when ballot boxes closed at 10pm last night.

It may lead to by-elections in the next few weeks, which could be critical to the outcome of the election.


It bloody well should do, and with postal voting and proxy voting rules completely redefined to give credibility to the totals of votes cast.

Voters were turned away in Hackney, Islington, and Lewisham in London.

People in Sheffield, Manchester, Liverpool, Chester, and Newcastle were also affected.

Sky News sources said 200 people were turned away in Manchester Withington alone.


There were reports of similar situations in other parts of the country.

Postal voting rules must be re-written, and those for proxy votes.

Link

This is enough. It’s time to call a halt to electoral chaos and the banana republic that Labour has created out of Britain’s once proud system of government, which we gave to the world.

Patrick said...

This has made my morning. It is better than the Ed Balls tirade with Adam Boulton on SKY.

BTW. Can we take pictures?

Paddy Briggs said...

LibDems gain %votes but lose seats - but Conservatives won fair and square overall. Cut out silly talk about anything other than Conservative administration. Exit polls remarkably accurate - can't wait to see your naked run Iain (not) !

Sean Haffey said...

> miko

(if you are still listening!) Thank you for the feedback. Your impressions will, I know, be very much appreciated and I have already passed them on. Please do feel free to contact me directly if you wish.

If Iain doesn't mind, may I suggest that any readers with comments on how the election was run in their area contact their local councillors? That's way we'll get useful information and so (I hope) make thinsg better.

Weygand said...

I was wrong and exit polls were right.

My apologies to exit pollsters.

Difficult to bear and will have to ask nurse to increase my medication.

Hullbloke said...

Iain may well be spending some time today desperately searching for a dog called naked.

Which he can then run down Whitehall.

chris said...

Dear Mr Dale, when do we get to see you naked?

Cindy said...

Seems like you can for for the run afterall!.. but you can't hide..cos you'll be naked. :D

Mike Law said...

Make sure you pick a warm day for your bare-arsed jaunt down Whitehall!

startledcod said...

Time to get your kit off and your trainers on Iain!

Richard Dedomenici said...

Backing out now will undermine your credibility. Me and my friend Lucy are willing to run down Whitehall with you, if that helps to overcome your shyness. Anyone else?

jailhouselawyer said...

This I must see...if there is much to see, that is.

RonLiddle said...

My guess is Parliament will be the only thing found to be 'hung'.

chrismcraib said...

Iain, I can't wait to get a gander at your tackle when you run down Whitehall, stark bollock naked - please name the day?

mutleythedog said...

I will join in if Lucy and Richard do! ;-)