Monday, May 04, 2009

Result of the European Elections Poll

An amazing 1,700 of you have voted in the European Elections poll I launched last night. Bear in mind that when I have done surveys previously, Tory support has usually been at around 60%.

Here's how you will be voting in the Euro elections...

Conservative 53%
UKIP 15%
BNP 8%
LibDem 6%
Labour 4%
SNP 3%
Green 2%
Libertas 2%
Don't Know 3%
Won't Vote 2%
Others 2%

Now, compare this to how you said you'd vote in a General Election

Conservative 73% (+20)
UKIP 2% (-13)
BNP 3% (-5)
LibDem 7% (+1)
Labour 4% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Green 1% (-1)
Libertas 0% (-2%)
Don't Know 3% (-)
Won't Vote 2% (-1)
Others 2%

So you see the Tory vote shoots up in a General Election, as the Tories attract back any support which has gone to other parties in the Euros. The actual per centages are rather irrelevant in a survey like this, which clearly will not reflect the per centages in the country. It is the trend which is important. But it shows the Tory leadership has a real challenge ahead of it in persuading a large chunk of its supporters to stick with it and not lend their votes to UKIP, or indeed, dare I say it, the BNP.

At the last Euro election the Tories only got 26% of the vote. Labour will try to spin any failure by the Tories to get more than 40% as a lamentable failure, even if their own vote dips below 20%. In my view, 35% would be a very good result indeed for the Tories.

As an aside, I'd love to know who the ten people are who said they would vote UKIP in the Euros and LibDem in the General Election. I'd love even more to hear their rationale.

UPDATE 1pm: A UKIP/Libdem reader has been in touch...
Hi Iain,

Re: "I'd love to know who the ten people are who said they would vote UKIP in the Euros and LibDem in the General Election. I'd love even more to hear their rationale."

My reasons are quite straightforward: UKIP in the Euros because I believe we should leave the EU. Lib Dem in a General Election because that is my best hope of defeating our local Labour candidate.

Regards - Steve

A sophisticated lot, my readers...


Chris Paul said...

Strange that you should think that these two surveys can be usefully compared at all.

no longer anonymous said...

"As an aside, I'd love to know who the ten people are who said they would vote UKIP in the Euros and LibDem in the General Election."

Tactical voting perhaps? Eurosceptic Tories voting Lib Dem to get Labour out.

Paul Halsall said...

It's rather alarming around 120 of your voters said they would vote BNP. That explains quite a lot of the racist comments.

Alan Douglas said...

That so many of us would swith to UKIP or others in the euros electios ought to be worrying for DC.

Leadership consists of getting ahead of the right parade.

DC, please make your anti-EU stance much clearer - at least promise there will be that referendum regardless of whether it has been implemented or not, based upon the promise in the 2005 Tory manifesto - and a big hoo-ha about how Tories stick to THEIR manifesto pledges.

Or are you a member of the Bilderburger Group ?

Alan Douglas

Grumpy Old Man said...

All it will take is for DC to stop fudging the issue and promise a referendum on Lisbon, whatever the situation, when the Tories are in power.

Thatsnews said...

As an aside, I'd love to know who the ten people are who said they would vote UKIP in the Euros and LibDem in the General Election. I'd love even more to hear their rationale.Yes, that's a good point, Iain. I guess there could be tactical voting?

Or perhaps a good LibDem constituency MP?

But how could anyone support a part that is pro EU, if they -the voter- votes for an anti-EU party in the European Elections?

Anton Howes said...

Iain, could you put up the figures for the "will vote X in Euros, Y in GE" please? You hinted at there being 10 for the UKIP-LD mix, but what of the others?

AD627 said...

No - it will take more than promises from DC. It will require the Tories to demonstrate that they have put together a list of MEP candidates that is not composed of pro-European Federalists.

PS Why do people that preview their comment have to word verify twice? It would surely encourage people to use the preview function (and hence raise the quality of posts) if we weren't forced to word verify twice.

Mark Reckons said...

Terrible that your correspondent votes Lib Dem in order to get rid of Labour even though (I assume) that he would actually rather vote Tory. Hence he is actually disenfranchised by the electoral system.

You should not be forced to vote in a sophisticated or tactical way. You should just be able to vote for whoever you want and know that your vote will matter to the outcome.

Dazed and Confused said...

I see that New Labour are attempting to counter-act such bad news, by going early with their Party Election Broadcast this Year.

Elizabeth said...

I am one of the people who will vote for UKIP on the European Election.

I so want to vote for the Conservative Party but feel very strongy that we should leave the EU.

Please issue a statement DC and tell us what the Conservative Parties stance is on this issue.

Sue said...

A very clear indication that a large proportion of the electorate want to leave the EU (not racism I might add).

Anonymous said...

you must be so proud to have such an enlightened readership... 23% voting for either BNP and UKIP... should be ashamed.

Anonymous said...

Silly to vote for the LD's even tactically - they will use your vote to claim support for their Euro - fanitacism.

Just look at the Gurka vote last week which was a cross party supported vote where the LD's did not even compose a fourth of the votes in the commons for the Gurkas and yet they were on television claiming some sort of victory for Clegg and the LD's.

I thought Clegg and the LD's behaviour pathetic and indeed shows why the pious, grubby and self-serving Little Hitlers. Some Labour MP's who supported that motion have been leaked against in the press whilst others have been put on a "Hit List" which includes potential deselection. The Tories whose Votes were the backbone of that Gurka victory have not been claiming credit either. The Folks who deserve Credit are the Actress and the Gurkas not the parasite LD's.

So that is why you should never support LD's even if it is tactically.

LD = Fraud!

LD = Labour = Higher Taxes!

Anonymous said...

The Liberal Democrats are a dodgy party led by an individual who is an utter joke!

Never vote LD even as a Joke! It is a wasted vote and one the LD's will use to back Labour!

Robert said...

Do not take any heart from the supposedly high figures for the Conservatives. Nobody loves this party. People will vote to get rid of Labour not for Cameron, a big difference.

Haigh's comments to the Daily Politics Show were very revealing. If Lisbon is ratified before the next general election then the Conservatives will continue to be in Europe and run by Europe. Do not deceive yourselves, all the major parties are proto EU federalists. By their actions you should judge them.

Wrinkled Weasel said...

Paul Halsall writes:

"It's rather alarming around 120 of your voters said they would vote BNP. That explains quite a lot of the racist comments."

First of all, I challenge you to define "racist". I have noticed that you have previously used the word as a rather loose term of abuse.

Secondly, it is clear that people vote tactically, which means that they do not necessarily embrace the party they vote for wholeheartedly.

Thirdly, there is nothing racist about wanting England for the English, any more than Ireland for the Irish or Scotland for the Scottish. You really must learn to distinguish Nationalism and Independence from Racism.

I do not wan to live under Sharia Law or Brussels law for that matter.

If I have to vote BNP in order to achieve this, I will.

Either that, or the main parties should present me with a real alternative.

Tim Hedges said...

I'm afraid the Tories will have to do more than promise a referendum - although it would help if this were cleared up. They will have to make specific pledges about repatriating powers over a wide range of areas in order to catch the Eurosceptic vote.

Fr.Ogs said...

At the risk of repeating myself, I will vote for any party that credibly promises to take us out of "Europe". We fought against Hitler, the Kaiser, and Napoleon, in order to preserve our own freedom, and that of other European nations: not to allow ourselves to be subsumed/subjugated in another Franco-German 'New World Order'. If there were the slightest hope that DC (+ KC, for Heavens' sake!)would guarantee our freedom, I would do once more, as I have in countless previous elections, vote for 'the party I love', the Conservative, National Liberal, and Unionist Party (now who was it, remind me, who removed the National Liberal and Unionist tags...? The Cottage-Grocer?).

Fr.Ogs said...

I will vote (I know, I repeat myself) for any party that credibly promises to take us out of "Europe". We fought Hitler, the Kaiser, and Napoleon, in order to free ourselves from monstrous tyranny, and to free other countries: not to subjugate ourselves in a new Axis of franco-german World-Empire

imbehindyou said...

We will never get out of this recession while we are hog-tied by EU regulation. Europe itself is now in such a mess and it is too beaurocratic to modernise itself which will take us further down with it.
Only when we are from EU rules and this pathetic and oppressive government will we be able to put our own house in order. Having our own currency makes us the only country within the EU to be able to do this. For those who can no longer bring themselves to vote labour and can't yet bring themselves to vote Tory then I don't blame then for voting for anyone else so long as they are in favour of a referendum on the Lisbon treaty.

Fr.Ogs said...

Fr. Ogs apologises for unintentional diplography: all the indications were ('Incorrect password'... type these letters...,', 'Incorrect password...'), that my comment was not being registered.

Pete said...

the best way to really wake DC & co up out of their marginally right of centre nonsense & return the tories to a proper right wing party of Union & liberalism is to shock them.

So a vote for the BNP at the EU elections will hopefully achieve that - without allowing the BNP's horribly socialist policies anywhere near the UK !

The BNP are no more & no less racist than any other bunch of extreme socialists; perhaps just more honest about it

Anonymous said...

I am one of the 10 who will vote UKIP in the Euro elections,and vote Lib Dem in the locals.(UKIP as I'm anti-EU and the Euros operate on a PR system..Lib Dem as an Anti-Labour tactical vote locally.

Winston the Smithy said...

I second Wrinkled Weasel.

I to am a Nationalist. Upon stating that I am a nationalist and people automatically think of racist or xenophobe at the mere mention of the word.
Had people who decide to stigmatise you immediately had any understanding of British History they would realise that the major difference between the main three political parties of now compared to yesteryear is that they are socialists, whereas once they were Nationalists.

I have no problem with immigration, that is skilled immigration, considering that no 1st World country needs immigration when it already has its own population of unskilled workers perfectly capable of doing the job.
I do however have serious issues with those who come here and segregate, choosing not to live by the law of the land and instead do their best to implement their cultural beliefs over our own. Why come to the UK if not for stealth invasion if this is how you feel?

I will not vote for the Conservatives, although in my heart of hearts I am.
There is no policy of today's conservative party that is remotely conservative. They have merely traded in their old conservative beliefs for shiny new socialist ones.

As much as I would like to vote for the Conservatives, there are no Conservatives in the UK to vote for and from what it also seems, our American cousins are experiencing the same problem over there with the Republicans.
I have no choice but to vote for the left wing(but Nationalist) BNP.

Many may think, what about UKIP then? Well, they have the right idea on Europe and I believe would leave, going back to older EEC trade agreements, but having full Nation state control, but when it comes to Islam they are totally and utterly oblivious to the threat that we face.

There really is no alternative in the UK, but to vote for the BNP, whom I will cast my first vote for them on June the 4th.

This is about Freedom of Choice. If those UKIP, Tory, Liberal voters out there want to shout racist and every other slur at the people of this country for voting for the BNP, then it clearly goes to show that you have no problem whatsoever with Dhimmi status and allowing a totalitarian ideology, to rip apart your culture and heritage and force you to live under its control. I do.

This country is changing beyond all recognition. Not only are our establishments utterly infiltrated by Marxist Theorists, but we are the only country in the World, to cast our culture to the Wind in favour of allowing the world's cultures in to live as they choose, completely forgetting that what attracted those people to the UK in the first place we are destroying.

If a true Conservative leader emerged, then I would vote for him/her, but I have seen no one appear whatsoever to take the mantle of true conservatism.

And last but not least, before you decide to attack me for my views on Islam and Islamisation, I suggest you read the Qur'an, the Hadith and Sira to understand just what Islam is all about. If you feel it is too much of a chore to read them all, then there are many books out there that will break it all down in simple books to read.

The list of some excellent books to read is on my blogspot(created today, so no stories as of yet)

James said...

"All it will take is for DC to stop fudging the issue and promise a referendum on Lisbon, whatever the situation, when the Tories are in power."

It would take a LOT more than that for Cameron to win my vote away from UKIP for the Euro-elections - he'd have to convince me his MEPs would do a better job of representing my wishes than UKIP's would. Frankly, he stands a better chance of getting pregnant than of achieving that: it's been made clear over multiple decades that the Conservative party is opposed to my views on that particular issue.

On a constituency level, a UKIP vote would be a wasted one (as indeed would Labour, who trail in a distant third or fourth alongside the Lib Dems) - my choice is between SNP and Conservative, which is a fairly easy one to make.

Charles said...

Another reason for Tories to lend their votes to UKIP at the Euro elections is that UKIP has a realistic energy and environment policy that opposes sacrificing the countryside to the "climate change" scare, whereas most Conservative MEPs, as they themselves proudly proclaim, have supported the damaging and unrealistic EU renewables targets.

bryboy said...

I have been running a poll based on how people are actually voting in the local by-elections. The results are nothing like the predictions from the MSM or on this blog. The Tories do not have a huge lead because the Labour vote in their heartlands is holding up. In fact there is very little between the Westminster three.

The significant progress is being made by the BNP. It reflects the earlier comments by Wrinkled Weasel and Winston the Smithy. If you don't want to be ruled by Brussels of be subject to Sharia Law then the only party worthy of your vote is the BNP.

The UKIP vote has crumbled and the Green Vote is wasted. The other smaller parties may have merit but the only party on a real war footing are Nick Griffin's crowd. They really want change and are prepared to get hurt of affect it.

no longer anonymous said...

"you must be so proud to have such an enlightened readership... 23% voting for either BNP and UKIP... should be ashamed."

I'm no fan of UKIP but to put them together with the BNP is ridiculous.

V said...

Why do people see the BNP as right-wing? They're socialist republican lunatics. If people actually listen to what Cameron et al say instead of reading it in the Daily Mail, then they are actually talking a good deal of sense, having dropped most of the eco-lunacy and hoodie-hugging nonsense a while back.

Winston the Smithy said...

V said,

"Why do people see the BNP as right-wing? They're socialist republican lunatics. If people actually listen to what Cameron et al say instead of reading it in the Daily Mail, then they are actually talking a good deal of sense, having dropped most of the eco-lunacy and hoodie-hugging nonsense a while back."I agree they are not right wing. I also agree as well that they some of their policies are socialist. However one thing I will say is they are a Nationalist party that wants to preserve British Culture and heritage and remove anything that seeks to destroy that.
Now let me see, what is David Cameron's policy on Islamisation of the UK? Shall I give you just a wee hint? How about from the (heaven forbid) Observer 13th May 2007:

"British asians provide a model for the rest of the country, David Cameron declares today, as he argues that many Asians cannot be blamed for failing to integrate."And here was me thinking that the Conservative party are all about preserving British culture and identity........

"In a powerful article in today's Observer, Cameron says that Britain's drug ridden cities are understandably alarming many Asians."Ah yes, this must be correct. What about Luton? You know the recent media attention on the Islamists who protested against British soldiers? Do you think the Asians there know that the drugs being controlled in Luton are primarily by Asians(Muslims) with which to help fund the Taleban and other Islamists groups around the World? Well, the blogger Lionheart did and when he warned the police about it and wrote blogs on the Islamisation of Luton, the police decided to try and arrest him for Hate Speech against Islam........

"I found myself thinking that it is mainstream Britain which needs to integrate more with the British Asian way of life, not the other way around.'"The leader of the Conservative Party stating that Britain needs to be more Asian instead of British. I wonder just how Asian he wants to go? Do you think he'll want full Sharia Law, because let's face it, when Cameron speaks of Asian, we all know who he's talking about. The 'M' word is now taboo in the MSM.

"During his stay Cameron learned how Muslims feel marginalised in today's Britain with one upsetting issue being the use of language. 'We must be careful about the language we use,' he writes. 'Many Muslims ... are deeply offended by the use of the word "Islamic" or "Islamist" to describe the terrorist threat we face today.'"Nowhere near as offended as the British people would be if the MSM started publishing the truth about Islam and what Muhammad preaches(and of course Imams) about the Infidel(non Muslims). Not all Muslims are terrorists, but the clear majority of terrorists happen to be Muslims, in fact, Muslims who follow the teachings of Muhammad, from the Qur'an to the 'T'.

Do you really for one minute think that Cameron is a Conservative? What part of Britain do you really think that he wants to conserve? I hate to say it, but I would never vote for the Conservatives under Cameron. I won't vote for them until a true conservative emerges. All we have is a bunch of 'lettuce leaf' saps, who call themselves Conservative but are nothing more that a Social Democratic Party. They have no intention of halting immigration, because their funders from the business world certainly wouldn't forgive them, if the minimum wage has to go up and they'd have to imply British people - good God, heavens above no!

As I said, the BNP are the only Nationalist party that will preserve British culture and identity and that is the main reason I will support them on June the 4th and next General Election. I am a conservative and always have been, but the BNP are the closest the country has to Conservatism.

Adrian P said...

I wonder what the Poll results would be like if people saw this Video first.

The Demographics Problem

V said...

Winston the Smithy:
An article from 2007 is not recent. Watch his and the Shadow Cabinet's speeches since the last big conference. He's become a pragmatist, instead of the 'proper' right-winger you want him to be.
Also, I don't get this 'big deal' about immigration. We're a nation of immigrants, right back to the Celts, Romans, Vikings, Saxons etc.
The issue is when we take on too many and public infrastructure cannot cope, which is what we are seeing now.

neil craig said...

Note that Scotland's population is 12th of the UK's & the SNP vote of 3% looks very respectable.

I can understand the UKIP/LudDim switchers. If you are unimpressed by the 2 big parties & wrongly but understandably believe LD promises to support free enterprise & cut the size of the state then you can vote that way. It also suggests that, for both parties supporters, membership of the EU is not the overwhelming issue.

Ray Finch said...

I believe I know why some, at least, of your respondents promised to vote UKIP/LD.
The LDs are the only one of the 3 larger parties to offer an in/out referendum.
I, personally, do not believe they would honour this promise but some may.
See what will happen to DCs poll lead if he offered the same.

Ray Finch.
UKIP SE MEP Candidate.

Cjamesk said...

I`ll shoot from the hip and be honest,

I`ll be voting UKIP at the Euro Elections as much as it pains me to.
The reason; I am still dubious over DCs stance over the Lisbon Treaty and EU Membership as a whole.

But I will be backing the Conservatives at the GE so yes I am tactical voting as many more are I am sure.

Anonymous said...

I am one person who will be voting for the BNP in both elections (for the first time) for basically two simple reasons: 1. There is not much difference between Lab/Lib/Cons 2. DC is not a nationalist, actually is an "idiot" about Islam and I have actually read an article by him in which he spent some time with a Muslim family in an area which was up to 20 years ago 100% British and is now 80% Muslim. His observations: "We have much to learn from Muslims"

I know much about Islam. I have been to places which were highly civilised and Christian and which are now backward and cruel which the precepts of the Kuran and Shariah Law have kept them tied up to the Arabian desert culture of 14 centuries ago. I belief it is a danger to Europe which is slumming, degrading and changing it beyond belief with a host of new no-go areas.

If there is a powerful nationalist voice in the CP I would vote for them but there isn't and I don't think that most of them give a toss about what we think.

Anonymous said...

Why is it that when you mention voting for the BNP, people comment with such aggression and hostility?
People are completely free to have their own opinion.
This is the only group to come up with some sort of solution to our completely overcrowded little island, also has anyone noticed that in 90% of gang related knife crime etc that the victims and the accused are always ethnic minorities?

whiter30 said...

Am I wrong in my thinking that this democracy that we have is for a free vote for what each individual wants. Then why is that people are making comments trying to make out that if you dont believe in the 3 main parties then you are obviously racist. If you think our parliment are corrupt the people of this country havent seen anything yet. Each year the Euro parliment is audited and has NOT once passed. Can we really expect the three main parties to uncover the corruption in place; and given that the UKIP have been in there for 4 years and have done absolutely NOTHING can we expect anything from them now.