Monday, March 09, 2009

Tom Watson Tries to Reduce June Poll Expectations

It's started. The Labour spin operation to reduce expectations for the Euro elections is well and truly underway, if THIS post by Gordon Brown's special little helper Tom Watson MP is anything to go by.
Mike [Smithson] raises a point on his web site today that I’d not thought about. In the last Euro elections, Labour took about 22% of the vote. Mr Smith (sic) reminds us that in the last elections, Labour did better where there were all-postal-vote elections. That’s not happening this time around.

So what's Watson saying? That Labour fiddled the system last time, or that a performance of 19% really would be quite a success? Way to go, Tom. A new and innovative way to rally the troups!

In a funny sort of way, though, he does have a bit of a point. In 2004 Labour polled 23%, the Tories were on 27% and the LibDems 15% .


So what should the Tories be aiming for? No doubt Labour will try and spin that anything less than 40% would be a huge failure for David Cameron. It seems to me that the smaller parties, who between them polled 35.8% of the vote in 2004, may well do even better in 2009. But at whose expense? My own view is that the Tory vote will increase by up to eight points, Labour's will shrink by a couple and the LibDems will remain roughly where they were. I expect UKIP's vote to shrink but both the Greens and the BNP to rise substantially.

Graphic Hattip: BBC

16 comments:

Daily Referendum said...

Since Harriet Harman told the Scottish Labour conference that the Euro elections should be seen as a "dress rehearsal" for the general election, surely she has made them a vote of confidence on Gordon Brown?

Chris Paul said...

8%? Have a word with yourself Iain. The Tory MEPs have been hellishly sleazy these last five years. Don't you think there will be any backlash on that? Seems to me there is scope here for a shot across Cameron's bows in which case the Tory vote might reduce, or alternatively this could be a painless way to batter Labour (as in 2004) and the Tories could gain a few percent - without this carrying through to any GE.

There covered the bases.

Walsingham's Ghost said...

"...Labour did better where there were all-postal-vote elections"

As close to an open admission as we are likely to get!

Conservative (and indeed all non-Labour) Candidates for both Local and Euro Elections need to be especially vigilant where postal votes are concerned - the potential for fraud in this area is well documented and might just make the difference between victory and defeat on the night...

WG

Unsworth said...

Isn't Harman being lined up to take the bullet for failure in these elections?

tom watson said...

For those people who know their own mind, here is the piece by Mike Smithson on the election results from last time:

http://bit.ly/1ab0YU

Marian said...

As you know there was a massive increase in postal votes cast at the Glenrothes by-election which won the seat for New Labour against all the odds. A great many people in Scotland think that New Labour may have stolen the by-election in Glenrothes with fraudulent postal votes. New Labour were after all caught red-handed using fraudulent postal votes before in Birmingham. Unfortunately the registers of who actually voted went AWOL after the SNP asked to see them so we will never know. Based on this and the acute disillusionment I know is felt by former New Labour voters in Scotland I believe New Labour will be struggling to win any MEP seats in Scotland at the Euro elections.

Mirtha Tidville said...

I think, with the present anti Brown view in the UK it will be a disaster for Labour. It will bring many people out to vote that perhaps would not otherwise bother ( Euro vote??uggg) just to give Gordo a slapping.....remember folks there are 6 times more savers than borrowers, a fact that Broon might be painfully reminded of very soon........

jailhouselawyer said...

Don't get me started. Labour can spin all it likes, I can still disentangle my clean handkerchiefs from their dirty tricks. Personally, I think that Labour will be wasting its time and energy in relation to reducing expectations for the Euro election. If Wikipedia is anything to go by:

"The turnout is an increasingly big issue for some, with some noting that in the UK, 11 million voted in the 1999 European elections while 23 million voted on the Big Brother TV show in 2002".

If Labour did better with postal votes, I am surprised that they are so sluggish about the 80,000 postal votes tied up in prisons which will not get counted unless the government pulls its finger out. As you know, Dizzy Thinks posted that prisoners are seeking their right to vote in the Euro election. If the government denies them this human right, it will leave the taxpayers facing a damages claim for between £15-30M, and double the figure if by the time of our own election the government has not by then implemented the decision in Hirst v UK(No2).

Dizzy Thinks that UKIP will attempt to make political capital out of the Prisoners Votes Case, in that by giving UKIP a vote they will stop Europe dictating to the UK.

In any event, this political ping pong has gone on for long enough now. Time for the referee to call that the "ball is out". Yes, John McEnroe, I can be serious, especially when it concerns something I feel passionately about.

"So what should the Tories be aiming for?". Sacking Dominic Grieve for a start and replace him with somebody who has got a clue what being shadow home secretary is about. (I refer to his stating that ex-prisoners should leave prison without the means of survival. Thereby drastically increasing the re-offending rate. Duh!) Secondly, they can start being an effective opposition and stop sticking their collective heads in the sand on the Prisoners Votes Case.

Richard Abbot said...

Labour Official Press Release:
"You have to remember that at this stage of the electoral cycle the Tories ought to be polling 50% - 60% - 70% of the vote. In fact, truth be told, Cameron should record 98% in his elevation to Fuhrer.
That the Tories are scarcely recording enough for an overall majority is a testament to the contempt that the British people still hold them in."
I can't wait for Labour Parliamentary opposition - the language is going to be unreal!

neil craig said...

I think you are wrong about the Green vote rising. We are in a recession & the globe is cooling which recent weeks have shown. I think the Greens are no longer being seen as a cuddly protest vote but that their policies of preventing growth in the name of a false warming scare are having a real world influence - & not a good one. I think this is much of what happened to the LDs a few years ago.

It looks like the BNP are on a role. I am not sure UKIP won't do worse but the EU is certainly no more popular & I remember Farage getting applause on Question Time when he was the only one to say global warming was a con. I can't see anybody being enthusiastic about voting for any of the big three.

I would not be 100% surprised if the big 3 ended up as Conservative, UKIP, BNP though, as normal the real winner will be - nobody worth voting for.

Simon Gardner said...

neil craig said... “...the globe is cooling which recent weeks have shown.”

Cooling - my arse. What lunatic fringe did you drag that one up from?

aproposofwhat said...

Since the Euro parliament is irrelevant at best, I think we should all vote BNP - wouldn't like them to run my town, but they can trough in Strasbourg as much as they like, as far as I'm concerned.

It'd show how fucked up our country is under the Neues Arbeit Scottish hegemony, anyway...

WV: ingsid - too close to 'ingsoc' for comfort.

Tim Roll-Pickering said...

Chris Paul: I'm struggling to remember any Euro election in which the actual conduct of a party's sitting MEPs themselves became much of an issue. The European Parliament is a strange, detached entity with next to no presence in the British media and the MEPs fall into the same category.

jailhouselawyer: Chris Grayling is now Shadow Home Secretary.

Phil said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Phil said...

Chris, no one cares about what MEPs do when they reach Brussels - it's tough enough trying to get people interested in these elections in the first place!

Re: Iain's predictions - I think an eight point increase on the Tory vote is too much. Touched by a little official optimism, Iain? Probably four or five per cent on I would say. I think Iain's about right on Labour and the LibDems.

I think it's likely UKIP's vote will halve, and yes the Greens and BNP will do well. The wild card in this election could well be the RMT/left platform, 'No2EU - Yes2Democracy'- if it can get plenty of publicity. If not, expect around two per cent.

jailhouselawyer said...

Tim Roll-Pickering: Apologies. NuLab with all the changes had me confused for a moment. It should have read "Dominic Grieve, the shadow justice secretary". It remains that he is too ignorant, and a liability to the Tory Party, and should be replaced with someone more knowledgeable for the tasks in hand.