Thursday, November 08, 2007

Geek Alert: Labour MPs Are Revolting

Phil Cowley at Revolts.co.uk has done an in depth study into the revoltingness of Labour MPs. He concludes they are very revolting. By which, I mean, of couse, that they are much more rebellious than conventional wisdom suggests. HERE'S his report, From Blair to Brown: Dissension amongst the Parliamentary Labour Party 2006-2007: A Data Handbook. This is an extract from the Executive Summary.
The 2006-7 session still saw a Government backbench rebellion in one in five divisions, the fourth highest rate in the New Labour era (behind 2005-06, 2004-05 and 2001-02) and the seventh highest since 1979. The rate of rebellion for the Parliament as a whole remains one rebellion in every four divisions, which means the Parliament is still on course to see the highest rate of rebellion of the post-war era. The session saw 122 Labour MPs defy their whip (marginally up on the 114 in the preceding session), and the revolts over the renewal of Trident produced the largest rebellion ever by Labour MPs over their own government's defence policy. The 2006-07 session may have seen Labour dissent fall back slightly, but it did not see it vanish. There were a total of 221 divisions during the 2006-7 session, a 36 percent drop on the 343 in the preceding sessions. Excluding pre-election sessions – often curtailed, often short – this figure of 221 was the lowest number of divisions in a session since the 1995-6 session. As a result, whilst the number of Labour rebellions fell by more than 50 percent, from 95 in the 2005-6 session to 45 in 2006-7, the fall in the percentage rate of rebellion was less dramatic, from 28 percent to 20 percent. The rebellions covered a wide range of issues and bills, although the vast majority (68 percent) of Labour dissenting votes occurred over three measures: the Offender Management Bill, the Pensions Bill, and the renewal of Trident. Most of the rebellions were not large: the mean was 11 (the same as in the previous session), but the median was just three, with the mean inflated by the two very large revolts over Trident. Two-thirds of the revolts consisted of fewer than ten Labour MPs. The two largest revolts of the session – and, indeed, the Parliament as a whole - came over the Government’s proposal to renew Trident. The largest Trident revolt – on a delaying amendment moved by Jon Trickett – was backed in the lobbies by 95 Labour MPs; the rebellion on the government’s main motion saw 89 Labour MPs vote against. Revolts of this scale are extremely rare. The two largest Iraq revolts aside, there have only been two other revolts by Government MPs against the whip of this size in the entire post-war era.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Aren't all these statistics irrelevant now that Blair has gone?

Anonymous said...

They're not nearly as revolting as Gordon Brown.

Astro-Turf Lawnmower said...

Phil Cowley was one of my tutors while taking a Politics degree. The man is an absolute legend and his lectures and tutorials were unmissable parts of the week.

I remember him writing a piece of research work called 'Blair's Bastards' during the 1997-2001 Parliament, a reference to John Major's use of the term (sorry Iain) to describe his Eurosceptic rebels. It was about the rebellions (over benefits for single parents etc) which afflicted Blair from the word go and would have had serious consequences had he not had such a huge majority.

Phil, if you're reading this thanks for helping make the course (the mighty BPLS) one of, if not the, best in the country and a thoroughly enjoyable one at that.

Anonymous said...

IMO

This is because the only way the great majority of the public are supposed to know what is going on in parliament is via the MSM and the BBC especially. If the BBC gives the impression all is fine and dandy within the PLP then that might as well BE THE CASE.

Voters listen and believe what the BBC tells them and even if they don't believe everything it propagates, perceptions in democratic politics are everything.

Reality is only second place at best and only then if it is having a direct affect on the individual or the individuals family.

You only have to look at opinion polls to see this. The only time you see a large swing is when the BBC starts doing its job honestly or fails to keep its eye on the ball enough.

They let Thatcher slip though back in 79 they have no intention of such an potential disaster for them every happening again. If they can help it.

This to me is self apparent, but I would genuinely love to be convinced by someone that it is not so.