Thursday, October 04, 2007

Conference Good Week/Bad Week

Over the course of the day I'll be writing short pieces in this post analysing whether particular people or groups have had a good week or a bad week at the Conservative Conference. I'm sure you'll let me know if you disagree with my conclusions!

DAVID CAMERON

Even those who can't stand Cameron must surely admit that he has had an extremely good week. He's proved what I said in my Telegraph column a few weeks ago - that he's the political equivalent of that 1980s children's toy, the Weebil. Weebils wobble but they don't fall down. Cameron's resilience has been there for all to see. His speech yesterday should remarkable cojones. To speak for an hour without autocue or script was a feat in itself, and one which the media were highlighting at every opportunity and contrasting with Gordon Brown's more staccatto approach. The truth is, of course, that he did have some notes on a table, but he rarely referred to them, and if he did it was while the cameras were getting audience reaction shots during applause. He spoke from the heart, and although the speech was perhaps overlong, those who didn't know what he stood for at the beginning of it certainly did by its conclusion. I've been to twenty odd Conservative Conferences and I have grown slightly tired of the formulaic leader's speech. This was anything but formulaic. I have lost count of the number of Cameron-sceptics who I have spoken to in the last 16 hours who have said to me: "He's won me over." Now all he needs to do is keep up the momentum!

THE CONFERENCE ORGANISERS

There were still a few problems over passes but nothing like the chaos of last year. Within the Winter Gardens everything seemed to run fairly smoothly, except for the WiFi in the media centre, which caused the journalists not a little angst. The set and staging were the best for years. The raised seating worked well and gave the hall an intimacy which it had previously lacked.The giant video wall worked well, although some of the graphics were a little distracting during the speeches. Once the conference got over the shock of the sound system failing on the first morning it all ran very smoothly. Andy Coulson and Steve Hilton should get lots of plaudits for the operation of the event. It could so easily have been very different.

THE FRINGE

As usual, the fringe events provided great entertainment without distracting from the main conference. I'd be interested in people's highlights. Sometimes the fringe events can cause unfortunate headlines. That didn't happen this year, with everyone recognising the need for unity. I'm told George Osborne's interview with Andrew Rawnsley went very well and that Rawnsley failed to land a blow. I spoke at thee fringes, the sparkiest of which was undoubtedly the Hansard Society's event which called into question the future of political parties. It was a real old fashioned knock about event with the audience as aggressive as two of the speakers, Ed Vaizey and Peter Oborne who clearly have 'history'.

Coming later, policy, the media, Gordon Brown, the bloggers & the shadow cabinet.

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Weebils wobbled but didn't fall down - they did however disappear without trace!

Anonymous said...

What about Boris? I should think this has been a good week for him.

He gave a good speech and has started working towards improving his image so he doesn't look like an eccentric tit who wouldn't be able to run London properly to the voters.

Praguetory said...

I think Tory bloggers had a weak week at conference. Very few unique insights across the piece.

Romsey Rapid said...

What took more balls was for Cameron to initiate the policy commissions when he knew he would not have anything of substance to say for about 18 months.

The results of these commissions are now beginning to show and I think that these, along with Cameron's modernising agenda, will undoubtedly win support across the electorate.

I'd say the policy commissions get a winner star as well - especially IDS and I never thought I'd say that!

Anonymous said...

Iain, I don't want to disagree with you too much, but how come the thing that every commentator is leading with is the fact that Cameron spoke without notes or an autocue. I know that both are the norm nowadays and the fact that Dave did without is worthy of note. Yes, he SPOKE very well. But of what he actually said there has been almost no comment at all. Surely his job yesterday was both to say something remarkable and to say it in a remarkable fashion. On that basis he secures 50%. But in order to supplant Brown he needed the other 50%. The UK public doesn't hate Brown. They may not much like him, but they will need a very good reason to get rid of him. I just don't think that Cameron has yet given them that reason. He may manage it during an election, but he couldn't do so yesterday, notes or no notes.

Mulligan said...

People seem to be forgetting in the critique about substance that they have had to condense what should have been another two years planning into a few weeks. Under those circumstances I think it was a remarkably successful week for Cameron and his team. Whether it will be enough to remove Brown, or more realistically get him to delay the election, is another matter. We can but live in hope, but whatever definitely a far better prospect at the end of the week than the start.

*Interestingly whilst the BBC's response has been to almost go into denial and ignore the conference several Sky News reports over past couple of days have not been afraid to ask questions over Brown's electioneering stunts*

M. Hristov said...

A very good week for David C. I would not be able to write the following if there had been no party conference. The conference put the Conservative Party "back on track"

So, why does Gordon Brown need an election? Is it to destroy the Conservative Party? Or is it to save “New Labour”?

The central problem for Brown is that events seem to be moving against him. There will almost certainly be an individual “credit crunch” where individuals find it difficult to get cheap credit. This will fundamentally affect the economy as a whole, which has been sustained by cheap credit. The housing market will probably start to deflate and ordinary people will “feel the pinch”.

More importantly, from his point of view, his natural electorate, the public sector, is about to have the gushing taps of money switched off. This will cause problems within a “New Labour” ever more dependent on the unions.

Brown’s strategy seems to be to gain time to outlast these problems by having an election and hoping that we will, once again, be on the “sunny uplands” in five years time. An election in 2010 could destroy "New Labour" if the public are still "under the cosh" of a credit crunch and the public sector unions have fallen into full revolt.

The effect of the election speculation on the Conservative Party has been dramatic. The most beneficial result has been an end to the seemingly self indulgent (but necessary) policy group phase. This was in danger of making the party seem a joke because the policy groups came up with contradictory ideas. The Conservative Party has now been forced to produce some concrete policies which are very attractive to ordinary people. The danger is that Brown will now try and steal them but the policy group phase was sending very mixed messages to the electorate and could not have safely been allowed to continue for very much longer, in any case.

The speculation has also ended the “sniping” between modernisers and non-modernisers. It has instilled the necessary unity.

David Cameron has crucially been able to distance himself from Blair over the last week. The transparent authenticity of his speech (no autocue, limited notes and a fantastic bedside manner) has done that.

Outright victory for the Conservative Party would mean that they simply inheriting the mess to come. It would be preferable if Brown faced a reduction of his overall majority, to 20 or 25 seats. This would lead to him suffering the sort of problems that John Major encountered in 1992-1997 and prepare the way for a triumphant Conservative landslide in five years time under David Cameron‘s leadership.

Cameron is the sort of person who will mature with age. A reassuring uncle like figure who will salve the nation after the horrors which will be visited upon us over the next few years. His best years are yet to come. Brown’s are behind him.

Will an election be called? I rather doubt it but we may be in the position of the Germans and Russians at the start of the First World War. Once mobilisation had been ordered it may be impossible to stop.

Anonymous said...

It's Weebles not weebil and they still exist.

Ewan Watt said...

From what I hear, it was a shocking gala dinner. Come on guys, buck up!

Anonymous said...

After Cameron's speech the Tories should be pushing very hard for a TV debate. Clearly he can think on his feet which is a requirement of such a debate. It also means that there would be something to focus on in what is likely to be a short campaign.

Brown would be tactically wise to refuse but the Tories should make a real stink about such a debate calling on the BBC, ITN or indeed Sky to go ahead with it even if Brown won't.

A comparison here is with the Scottish election where Question time invited all 4 party leaders (& what the BBC & also previously the Guardian had intorduced as a typical Scotsman in the stret - a Sikh alternative comedian now living in London). On that occasion Jack MCConnell said he was to busy & sent Lord Foulkes but the BBC went ahead with it.

Rich Tee said...

"I think Tory bloggers had a weak week at conference. Very few unique insights across the piece."

I have written a post which might be called, er, unique.

Anonymous said...

I feel the problems the Conservatives have had over the summer were more down to their invisibility than Gordon Brown's alleged abilities!

A new PM was always going to have a bit of a bounce - plus, everyone was totally sick of Tony Blair so people were keen to give the new guy a chance.

Plus - the Conservatives appeared to have gone into hibernation and there was nothing but Labour in the newspapers (forget the BBC - what else do we expect?), except when daft ideas like charging to park at the supermarket were floated.

This has been a very good week for the Conservatives because they appeared united in the first place and sensible in the second place.

However - their greatest asset is David Cameron, who proved he is not only an excellent speaker, but most importantly, spoke about the things people care about and appears to care about the same things himself. He comes across as a man who can be trusted - and didn't need to put any fake emotion into his speech either. Think the bit at the end about himself was just right - didn't pretend to be something he isn't.

Politicians ask a lot of the public when they ask us to give them our vote - we need to feel they deserve that trust.

Anonymous said...

Yes, definitely "weebles". Perhaps you were thinking of gerbils, which do fall over if you hit them.

Ed Payne