As you all know, I jumped off the fence some time ago by predicting that Brown would indeed call an autumn poll. The events of the past few days are making me a little nervous about that prediction but I still think it's 60-40 in favour. But if Ben is right, the quote I gave the Telegraph earlier today will be very aposite...
If the party has succeeded in putting Gordon Brown off calling an election they
will have achieved one of the greatest feats in modern political history. They
will have got out of jail. All credit to those who organised this conference.
My brain is still buzzing, but I'd better go to bed!
34 comments:
Wow. OK, your post-conference high spirits are all well and good, but I didn't see a single thing that would deflect Labour from going to the polls.
The strength of Cameron's speech was to make him the human face of a party that largely isn't, the weakness of it was to offer up no real challenge to Brown. He basically agreed with what Labour do, but had some technical disagreements with how to do them. It was the speech of a PR man not upsetting the horses.
Brown should be confident today that he controls the centre agenda, that he has the most unified party, that he is the strong leader people want in serious times.
David Cameron made a good call for the centre ground yesterday, but it wasn't the clever bullet to Brown's temple it needed to be to avert an election, though it was probably enough for Dave not to be beheaded if Brown's majority falls.
Ultimately, the Labour election machine may be a bit old-fashioned now, but it is still formidable, and its attack, rebuttal and research are impeccable. The new Tory machine, with its nice colour-coded seating plan, had better be prepared for something more than a marketing campaign.
Brown is shaken and stirred. He now knows how capable his Commons opponent is.
He will now behave as you would expect an overpromoted coward would behave, go back to your constituencies and prepare for a full term of Brown.
Or....
He will go to the polls before PMQs reveal his inadequacies.
Mr Brogan can spot gutlessness when he sees it.
I don't think you have got out of jail at all. Brown's ascent was due to media control (BBC particularly). If an election had been called even the BBC would have pretended to be neutral, three weeks without BBC Labour propaganda would be enough to turn the polls on their head. Psephological bias notwithstanding I think the Conservative party would have won the popular vote.
Brown knows it too, he's not that dumb.
Credit to Iain who has performed such stalwart duty during this conference!
Thank you for the best, fastest- moving and most entertaining blog of the conference! The most fun!
Iain, your headline should have been
"Has Brown bottled it!!
Yes, we may be relieved if he does not call one, but don't surrender just before the other side decides to make a tactical withdrawal!
I have never thought that Brown had the balls to go for an Autumn election. His cautious nature, the fact that even if he won (most likely outcome just now), the risk of not commanding at least the same majority or less than Blair achieved would have been unbearable for him.
The polls are the key, and the evidence has been that even when he hit 44%, it was not bankable voters in the right regions which have switched to him. In effect Blair could always pull middle England, but Brown's desperate attempts to woo Conservatives did not even get him a one night stand on trial.
Brown's nemesis Osborne struts onto the stage and shouts to the Tory faithful and small c voters, "grab your coat, your pulled"
He had them swooning with those nifty tax policies and the promise of more. What Tory voter could resist that chat up line?
Cameron did brilliant this week, but then so did everyone else, including the previously maligned IDS and the until Sunday George Osborne.
Makes no difference when the election is, because Labour is going to win.
One thing the electorate do NOT like is being messed around by dithering politicians. If Brown "bottles it" - the Tories may be relieved but Brown and the Labour Party have allowed the election fever to build to such an extent that if it now doesn't happen they'll be accused of cowardice in the face of a resurgent Conservative Party. This is a mess that is of Brown's own making he now has no alternative but to follow through and call an election next week failure to do so will ensure that for the intervening period he will be rightly accused of, in the words of Lady T being - "Frit ! frit ! frit !"
Oh Iain, have a look at tis in the cold light of day. The tories are still the nasty party and will be for a generation.
I think Brown will bottle it now. It's a shame because I think we now have a real chance. I'm looking forward to the polls.
You had a great conference and I wish I had been there. I will be going all out for next year's.
Well Done.
Yes Ben has had a very good week.
Not so bad yourself either!
While a lot of other so-called bloggers hardly wrote a bloody word!
I think you may be right that we have got out of jail. Right but suprising as:
- if Brown goes now he wins, the question is by how much and if Cameron does enough to survive
- if Brown holds off and goes long I believe he may well lose as the next election will be on his and Labour's record in the face of a souring economy
Also, amusingly, Brown will look an utter idiot. The jibe that he doesn't even believe he can win an election when the polls show an 11-point Labour lead and at the peak of his honeymoon will hurt. Sales of his book Courage will also be hurt
Out of jail??? Any opposition politician or supporter should be delighted to have the opportunity to take on the government of the day.
I think 60-40 is about right, but you've still got to be brave to put some money on it either way.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
You are right Iain, you have been in a bubble, amongst friends. If Brown goes which is looking admittedly increasingly unlikely now, the Conservatives have done very little to convince people at the end of this week that they could form an alternative government with a radical agenda for 'change'
Matthew D'Ancona was predicting on the Today programme's Doomsday clock countdown to the election that it is now more likely because Dave so effectively threw down the gauntlet Gordon can't back down now. The strong man would be exposed for the weakling he is. The single most important message of Dave's speech that most people will know - even if they know nothing else about it - is that it took courage - the courage Gordon likes to write about but so singularly lacks.
I hope Brown goes for it as we will give him a real mauling from which even if he wins he won't recover.
David Cameron is only going to get better now he has command of the party, the economy is going to get worse, and who knows what the Labour government is trying to do ? We get lots of announcements - but little clue of how they can be achieved and how they will work.
Having said that I don't think Brown will go now as the third party spinning against the need for an election has already started.
Radio 5 live this morning, News night last night ( the Labour MP claiming there's nothing going on), the electoral register issue.
Labour will try to spin this one as the Tories getting themselves in a muddle. Now days Labour tell the first lies they can think of - they aren't even capable of recognising the truth any more.
I managed to get odds of 2:1 on an autumn poll on Sunday - which I thought was good value.
We've now passed one of the potential announcement dates - so I would have thought the odds would have lengthened - but they're currently down to 1.6:1 on Betfair.
With only one realistic window left, those odds aren't quite so favourable. I still reckon it's more likely than not to be this autumn, but less likely than it was yesterday morning.
Cameron's speech has shown that the Tories are still in it, albeit facing one hell of an uphill struggle.
But I do however think Brown will bite the bullet and call an election, as he'll be confident with a decent ad company and a lead in the polls (Because despite Cameron's eloquence, it won't have pulled them ahead of Labour).
At best, I think we may be seeing an incredibly small Conservative majority followed by another election next October.
I can't see how he can NOT go for an election, it would look so wuss-like even the BBC would have to admit he'd bottled it. I've always thought the Brown bounce was a soft one. Personally I hope the election does happen in November as the momentum is with us now. I'm not sure the polls will tell the full story either - I have a number of well-off lefty pals who are planning to vote Tory for the first and only time due to the inheritance tax pledge. Its complete bribery - but effectively taking the whole middle class out of inheritance tax is a pretty big sweetener.
Guthrum,
I've done a round-up of the conference, with links to all the speeches. I suggest you read it.
http://dailyreferendum.blogspot.com/2007/10/conservative-conference-2007-round-up.html
To understand what's going on in politics now, you have to look at the psychology of the chief player, Mr Brown. Brown in his heart of hearts is a calculator and schemer, not a gambler, and never likes to act unless he knows the outcome of what he's going to do.
Look at the past of the Blair-Brown dog and pony show. Several times, most notably in the cash for honours scandal, there have been moments when a clever Chancellor might've toppled Blair and in doing so won such social standing in the Labour party that he'd have been lord and master of their hearts for years to come.
To pull such a stunt, though, you need balls and the willingness to gamble all in one throw; the willingness to lose is needed to win.
Brown doesn't have this devil may care willingness to gamble; the man's a calculator and a schemer and never wants to act unless he has all his ducks lined up and everything planned to the last iota.
This isn't the case now; there's a pretty good chance he could lose this one and he knows it; this is why the increase in fuel duty rates have not been deferred. Had this highly unpopular tax been deferred I might've believed he was going for a poll, but to deliberately allow the electorate to be annoyed in such a way, to hand the opposition a stick to beat him with (Labour = tax & spend), this must mean he's not going to do it.
No, I do not believe at this minute that an election will be called, unless things get to look a lot rosier for Labour in the polls (which barring a miracle won't happen, since the Tories and Cameron seem finally to be getting their act together).
Private Labour polling in marginal seats shows the situation for them is "not rosey" according to a Mori guy on Radio 5 this morning.
That explains the furious spinning today by Government supporters in the media that "Brown has never said there would be an Autumn election".
He's bottled it. No election this year. (or next year after the economy hits the skids)
Blooming 'eckers. You Tories. Telegraph leads on Cameron may have done enough to avoid poll. You are on the same tip. You will get mullered if there is a poll now. I've always favoured 2009 myself but you need to make your minds up.
Do you want an election now? Or not likely as the Telegraph aver?
If the latter doesn't that make Cameron into a great big fibber? With no policies??
This whole thing is a media confection assisted by some leaks and ploys.
"Have the Tories got out of Jail?"
Well, not quite all of them, but Archer's out. Whether he's a Tory these days is anyone's guess, of course.
Still if there is an election (and please let that be soon!) there will be more prison places built. Probably just in time to bang up a few of those disgusting NuLab apparatchiks. Blair would be wise to stay in the Middle East, and I'm surprised that Brown bothered to come back. He must be some kind of masochist (allegedly).
From Poster on Guido's Blog:
... Gordon's chum, Dame Micheal White has just said on Radio 4 that Brown has NEVER said he would call an election and that "it is all speculation drummed up by the media and David Cameron."
========================
How naughty of Dave, never said a word for weeks on the subject but was drumming up speculation all along
Bad week: all the ordinary folk who will have to pay green taxes not to help the environemnt, but to fund families (ie. the production of more children) which is just about the last thing the environemnt needs.
Worse week: the Tory Right, when they finally realise that 1 in 4 children are already born to families with at least one new migrant parent (ie. parents who not those of migrant descent themselves born here) and that because of the need to get married to get a visa to get in here / conserative religious beliefs in countries from which migtants come originally resulting in higher marriage rates, and more offspring, the family tax monies will get spent on ....... yes! more and more migrants' children!!
Even better, this itself will increase the 'pull' factor for even more folk to want to come here.
I'm not anti-migrant myself, just cross that moeny is to be squandered in this way. Still, a £2000 p.a. bounty probably sounds like a hell of a lot of money in Gdansk or the Gujarat.
I agree with Ben Welsh, the first poster.
My own feeling is that this speech wasn't even addressed to Conservatives - after all, there was nothing in it for them - but to the Labour establishment. He was pleading for his turn, and promising to be a safe pair of hands and continue their programmes. Yes, he would get permission to fiddle with some taxes to promote the family, but he was essentially promising that that is all he would do to change Labour's policies.
The EU and mass alien immigration stay. Actually, everything stays. Cameron was promising not to rock the boat if the Labour establishment gave him his turn.
I am absolutely baffled by Iain's promotion of this individual.
Brown never had any intention of calling an election, he would lose many seats in Scotland even before he looks at England. The whole thing has been a spoiler for the Tory party conference. He has forced the Tories off the fence to reveal their policies. He now has 2 years to work out how to deal with it. I am suprised how many people who should know better have been taken in by all this.
Just because Cameron can talk for an hour without notes does not prove anything about his leadership qualities. the policies however does show he has been listening to the party. Listening is the greatest strength a politician can have.
I don't know why people are expected to be impressed that Cameron spoke without notes - or at least, with only very discreet notes - given that actors do this every night of their lives and no one thinks they should be prime minister.
@ Verity "given that actors do this every night of their lives and no one thinks they should be prime minister"
But it's OK for them to become President of the United States, or Governor of California, of course.
Ronald Reagan, George Murray and Arnold Schwartzenegger did not become governors (and Mr Reagan President, of course) by doing party tricks. Read Ronald Reagan's speeches and Arnold Schwartzenegger's speeches and you will see that they are/were driven by a will to free people from big government, high taxes and over-regulation of the private citizen.
These men had a very strong agenda.
Dave wants to show that he is no threat to the status quo. Weak. Weak. Weak.
Plus, of course, I was referring to Cameron's party trick, which I pointed out that STAGE actors perform every night without people pointing at them and exclaiming, "Amazing!"
I don't see any reason to be impressed by the lack of script either.
If you are motivated and know your subject well a script can be a hindrance. Perhaps it is unusual to expect a politician to be like that!
using troop withdrawal in attempt to gain political capital proves brown just hasn t got it. is crass in the extreme. everything about him is false, look at the forced smile, typical example of an academic who has no empathy
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