This has just been released by ITV Wales
An exclusive all-Wales opinion poll for ITV Wales, the first of the Welsh Assembly election campaign, shows Labour likely to remain the largest party in the Assembly, but well short of an overall majority. This will, almost inevitably, mean that the next Welsh Assembly Government will be formed by a coalition of parties acting together.
The ITV Wales poll explicitly asked electors about their intention to vote on 3rd May with 45% claiming that they were certain to turn out. If repeated on polling day, this would be an improvement on past Assembly elections, but still fall well short of participation in Westminster general elections.
The voting intentions of the 45% certain to vote were as follows: (2003 result in brackets).
Party Constituency Vote Regional Vote
Labour 36% (40%) 35% (37%)
Conservative 23% (20%) 24% (19%)
Plaid Cymru 20% (21%) 20% (20%)
Liberal Democrat 15% (14%) 15% (13%)
Others 6% (5%) 5% (12%)
With four weeks to go until polling day, the poll shows a constituency vote swing to the Conservatives, up 3% from their 2003 result, and a decline in support for Labour, down 4%. The poll also suggests that similar changes in the regional list ballot. Analysis by ITV Wales’s elections expert Dr Denis Balsom suggests that this could mean a new Assembly made up of 25 Labour AMs, 14 Conservative, 12 Plaid Cymru, 7 Liberal Democrat and 2 Independent AMs - Trish Law and John Marek. Such a configuration could mean the re-formation of the Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition that governed Wales 2000-03.
Dr Balsom noted “…the coming campaign will undoubtedly impact upon these initial findings. Labour will seek to distance themselves from the current unpopularity of Tony Blair’s Government and endeavour to focus debate on their record in Wales. Conversely, the Conservatives will wish to harness the generally positive response to their new leader David Cameron. Similarly both the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru must hope that the campaign gives a lift to their support, which seems static at present.”
Denis Balsom further remarked “…ahead of a long campaign, and with a significant number of undecided voters still remaining, the ITV Wales poll is but a snapshot of the current political scene in Wales, however this is the backdrop against which the Assembly election is being fought”
NB: NOP interviewed a representative quota sample of 1500 adults, by telephone, across Wales between March 23rd and April 2nd 2007