Thursday, March 06, 2008

Ken is Going to Lose And He Knows It

This lunchtime I went to a lunch which Boris Johnson gave for bloggers. He was in fine form and exuded a confidence I hadn't seen before. What really impressed me was his total grip of policy, whether talking privately or answering questions from those present. It's clear to me that Boris now really believes he can win, and most of those present seemed to share that belief. The landscape has changed dramatically since the turn of the year. Livingstone's increasingly shrill and desperate attacks are failing to land a blow and all the polls show things moving in Boris's direction.

One thing Boris said at the lunch made me think. He said that the Mayor's precept is now £311 for a Band D house. He promised to run the Mayoral budget by "good Tory principles". He has already made clear there are lots of efficiency savings to be made. I made a facetious comment about 'sharing the proceeds of growth' but I meant it. The mayoral precept has rise hugely during Livingstone's years in charge and all Londoners have to show for it is a raft of extra quangos and job opportunities for Livingstone's cronies. If there's scope to cut the tax burden for Londoners Boris should seize it with both hands.

I was shown some psephological work this afternoon which shows categorically that Boris is in a really good position to win. I suspect Ken's people have seen something similar, which explains their increasingly desperate tactics. Ken's on his way out, and he knows it.

More reports from the lunch from Tory Radio, Ellee Seymour, Sam Coates

25 comments:

Cranmer said...

His Grace was disappointed not to have been invited.

He has been praying for Mr Johnson since before he announced his candidacy.

The prophetic word is that Mr Johnson shall win, but Cranmer needs no earthly treasure.

titus said...

Ken's desperation stems from more than a desire not to lose - a Boris victory will open the trapdoor on the murky little Livingstone empire. Expect the shredders to be extremely busy in the London Assembly building in the next few weeks.

Voted Dobson in 2000 said...

Livingstone isn't beaten. But if he persists in his tactics he will be.

If he's clever,and I know he is, he will reach out and get help from the people in the Labour Party who know how to beat Tories.

Boris Johnson is a joke. Just think about that idiot running London for a few seconds and you'll understand why. Livingstone's strategy so far has failed to expose that. But if he asks the right people Livingstone can assemble a team that will bury Boris so deep you won't even see the top of his foppish public school hair do.

The ball's in Livingstone's court - if he really wants to win he can do it, but he'll need to be strong enough to ask for help.

Newmania said...

Good gracious I am quite literally turning the colour of a Gooseberry .This Kafkaesque turn of events must be the pangs of envy gnawing at my vitals like malevolent tape worms .

I saw Boris speaking recently *touched hem of his garment.* I mean , had a quick word . I noticed at the time it was a new lean mentally agile Boris in touch with London issues and with gloves off. I am delighted to see you have come round to my way of thinking after the early doubts and ambivalence , Iain,.

I recall His Grace literally begging Boris to stand....

Jill, London said...

Voted Dobson in 2000 has obviously been brainwashed by his Comrades!

Boris Johnson is a highly intelligent man - far superior in every way to that "clapped out old Trot" [to use the description of a well-known broadcaster/journalist -and no, not Iain, someone else].

Comrade Livingstone is living in the wrong country - he ought to join his Comrades abroad. The man has been a TOTAL disaster for London. He's an embarrassment - and an incompetent bully who wastes our money - and couldn't care a less about that either. He thinks his role as London Mayor is by some Lefty 'divine right'. Wrong!

Boris' buffoon act has been far too convincing, but he's stopped now and I am certainly keeping my fingers, toes, and eyes crossed he's the Mayor of London on 2nd May!

Johnny Norfolk said...

I hope you are right as it will send shock waves through Labour as they will know for sure that their game is up. I dont live in london but if Boris wins he wins for all of us.

Matthew said...

"Ken is going to lose and he knows it."

What are you, twelve years old?

Anonymous said...

Jill,
You forgot your knees...

judith said...

Boris most certainly isn't an idiot, but even if he were, better for London to be run by him than that evil Trot, Leninslime and his corrupt cronies.

Anonymous said...

I hope that in getting rid of corrupt Ken, London doesn't find itself run by buffoon Boris. I am sure there is more to the man than his usual public persona but let's hope it's not too deeply hidden.

crystal ball said...

Does this come from the same reliable sources that told you Tony Lit was a certain winner?

www.ealingsouthallconservatives.org.uk

Maria said...

In your dreams, Iain!

Iain Dale said...

crystal ball. Would you kindly point to the blogpost where I said that. I think you might find it rather difficult.

don't get pompous with me said...

Could you point to where in his comment crystal ball says that you said that?

Mog said...

I too recently took the opportunity to kiss Bors' ring. He has really raised his game and was positively almost statesmanlike!

Ken still has a good chance of winning as he has abandoned the chattering classes as a lost cause and is banking on the votes from the immigrant population (have you seen the list of who is eligible to vote???). Put these together with his class warrior support and he may have enough to cobble together a victory.

Ed said...

Boris seems to have failed to invite some of the most influential London bloggers such as Newmania and myself :-)

Ken's friends' only proper attack (apart from all the "racist" claptrap) is that Boris is a buffoon but clearly he is not. It is Ken who is the buffoon if he thinks Londoners will be stupid enough to fall for his attacks.

I heard that 80% of the precept goes to the police which means that Ken is wasting the rest of it. That means that spending on the police could rise hugely and we could all have a nice tax cut.

BACK BORIS!

neil craig said...

I think you are tight about tax cuts. Look at the john Major election where he won, it is assumed largely on tax rates. The polls showed Labour ahead which suggests people put considerably more emphasis on low taxation than they are willing to tell pollsters.

Anonymous said...

I sometimes feel sorry for those bloggers who write utter cr*p on blogs such as this one. They no longer argue policy, only make remarks about Tory Toff etc. Which is a sort of racist remark !

My mother lives in SE London and goes to two pensionners clubs. She tell me that they are disgusted by Livingstone and his cronies. One of the biggest talking blocks this week was Lee Jasper on £120,000 living in a £90 a week 4 bedroom Housing Assn house. This was coming from people who live on less than £100 a week.

They see Boris as a get Livingstone out candidate and from what my mother said, these are solid Labour voters who will do just that.

Livingstone is toast.

fairdealphil said...

Iain claims that:

'Livingstone's increasingly shrill and desperate attacks are failing to land a blow...'

Oh yeah?

You obviously missed last night's Standard.

Boris's mate Andrew Gilligan confirmed that Boris has got his sums wrong in calculating the costs of his plan to bring back Routemaster buses.

Boris claims it would cost just £8million. Ken says at least £108 million.

When your best mate Gilligan tells you that Ken's figures are nearer reality, I'd say that's a fairly hefty blow...

If Boris can be THIRTEEN times out and produce a £100 million fuinding gap on buses, Londoners would be mad to trust him with delivering the £16 billion Crossrail project...

Anonymous said...

I met Boris before Christmas and found him surprisingly self-effacing and cautious. I've also been helping out in a small way with transport policy (which appeared in his policy document!).

However, let's not fall into the trap that Boris will 'running' London. he won't. He needs to roll out a team of non-political experts in the key positions.

The trouble with Livingstone's regime is that is deeply politicised. And it has managed to politicise everything - even the traffic light timings.

I suggested to Boris's team that he pledges to put Livingstoen in charge of the Olympic delivery. If it goes well, fair play. If it goes wrong, we'll know who to blame....

verity said...

Titus - Quite. And the car crushers should be doing good business in city-owned computers just now.

Anonymous said...

Voted Dobson reveals his true colours with his "foppish public school hair do" quip. Nice to know that class warfare and the politics of resentment are still Labour's default positions.

Better to have a dishonest, anti-Semitic crook as Mayor than someone who was privately educated, eh Comrade?

Anonymous said...

I suspect that Gilligan might have a massive shock for Lenin in the next few weeks.

When Lenin got in in 2000, he 'hired' his girlfriend Emma Beal to be his office manager. I wonder how many other were considered for the post?

Five years it was claimed that she was paid over 96k per year for the role. A copy of her wage slip was passed around Fleet Street, who all refused to get involved.

Now, Conway style, what if a disgruntled GLA employee leaks evidence that the near-£800K she's had was in return for minimal work...?

Maye she has bust her ass - but then she's had two children in the meantime, so maybe she hasn't been stretched too hard for the substantial wages.

We'll see, won't we....

Mostly Ordinary said...

Phil,

Boris could save £3 million scrapping Ken's 'Londoner' rag.

Anyway if you're going to mention Gilligan why not all the article? Where he talks about how Ken made up ... oops sorry ... undertook detailed cost analysis to arrive at that number.


On 19 December, Ken's official reelection blog claimed it would cost £600 million a year to bring the Routemaster back. By 26 February, that figure had risen to £1 billion (almost twice the cost of the entire London bus network!) Just three days later, however, on a BBC phone-in, Ken's claimed cost of the Borismaster staged a dramatic collapse to £80 million, before rallying in late trading on Monday to £108 million. Could someone be making it up as they go along?



source

So what actually happened was one of his many lies turned out to be almost right. Does he have a room of monkeys on typewriters doing his election responses?

Hardly the sign of a fella with a grip on how much it costs to run a bus service is it?

Anonymous said...

Like David Davis was going to win? ;-)