Thursday, October 04, 2007

Times/Populus Poll: Labour Lead 3 Points

Labour 39 per cent-- down two points
Conservatives 36 per cent -- plus five points
Liberal Democrats-- 15 per cent-- minus two points

UPDATE: The Guardian/ICM poll shows Labour and the Conservatives at 39 per cent each, with the LibDems on 16 per cent.

138 comments:

Daily Referendum said...

The gap is closing and will continue to do so as each poll is published. I wish Brown had called the election before the conference.

Anonymous said...

Even if he had called one before the conference, the speeches would've been the same. The only difference would be that Cameron couldn't accuse Brown of avoiding an election, which wouldn't have made that much difference in the polls.

Anthoninus said...

The Guardian poll is out:

LAB 39
CON 38
LD 16

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/polls/story/0,,2183987,00.html

Daily Referendum said...

C4 4 points lead to Labour
Times 3 points lead to Labour
Guardian 1 points lead to Labour

Can you see a pattern emerging?

Anonymous said...

Hmm... well, it looks like we possibly won't be having an election anytime soon...

Anonymous said...

So will Brown now risk Cameron getting more airtime by calling an election? I think we know the answer to that.

Anonymous said...

I think it is now evident that Brown will not be suckered into a snap election.

Anonymous said...

Daily Referendum, as the polls were all taken at the same time, there is no "pattern emerging".

Your posts would be more interesting if you managed to engage your brain before hammering away at your keyboard.

Anonymous said...

If Vivienne Westwood says she will vote Tory for the first time in her life then you know that times have changed!

Gordon Brown has managed to decontaminate the 'Thatcher Connection'. Oh the irony...

:)

Anonymous said...

It starts to look as if the shoe is now on the other foot; the political and media advantage is shifting to the Conservatives. They should press this advantage home aggressively.

I think it is now evident that Brown will not be suckered into a snap election.

Sorry? Who's starting to look like the sucker now?

Daily Referendum said...

King Cnut,

ooh get her!

(very adult and intelligent name by the way)

Anonymous said...

It's quite comical watching how Brown's stooges in the MSM are now trying to dampen down expectations of an early election.

Anonymous said...

So there's no election then.

Brown, with all credibility gone, will limp on, clinging to power but lacking authority and respect. Maybe even a laughing stock, certainly despised and ridiculed in many quarters both here and abroad.

The country deserves better.

Grim times ahead methinks as the economy deteriorates, war clouds gather over Iran, and Britain is stuck with a lame-duck Prime Minister.

Anonymous said...

Cameron is a much better performer on TV than Brown. In a campaign with lots of coverage I think he will do well.

Anonymous said...

anon.8.37
I think it is now evident that Brown will not be suckered into an early election. Shame.

Any clearer?

Daily Referendum said...

The Guardian are now saying it's all level: Lab 38 Con 38 and LibDem 16.

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/polls/story/0,,2183987,00.html

Anonymous said...

The best week the Tories had in years, and they still can't get a lead. Brown should call, he'll win and win well.

Thomas Gordon said...

Iain and chums

What do you make of the YouGov/C4 News findings on when people want an election:

ELECTION TIMING
36% - Autumn 2007
32% - 2008
7% - 2009
7% - 2010
17% - Don't know
Source: YouGov/Channel 4 News

And 'our friends' in the BBC are really trying to add some backspin:

"But Mr Brown has repeatedly said he was "getting on with the job" of governing when asked if a poll would be organised."

Any thoughts?

Unknown said...

The conservatives need to be careful not to get carried away. They are in a good position and I think that if they play carefully and thoughtfully they can do better in a general election whenever that may be. I certainly know of a few people who are now seriously beginning to think of voting Tory for the first time but this is fragile and the behaviour/message of Cameron and the party as a whole is critical beyond what is probably a "phoney" war.

Daily Referendum said...

The Guardian's results of Lab 38 Con 38 and LibDem 16, mean that Labours majority would be cut to *16*, yes that's *16*.

Anonymous said...

So there would be a good chance in practice of Brown being left without a viable majority. That would be an excellent result - for the country and for the Conservatives.

Anonymous said...

If he backs down now - Broon will never have any confidence in office. He will always be an inheritor of office, and not an elected PM. He needs to call it.....

Anonymous said...

I do not know the sample size of the Populus poll, but if it is 1000, that gives labour about a 3 point lead, taking all 3 polls together.

That is immediately after the Bournemouth Bounce.

Might that suggest a 5 point lead (all else being equal) once the bounce is over?

Is that enough?

Deal or no deal?

Anonymous said...

Polls don't work! Polls are fixed!! Oh sorry, that's only true if the Tories are ten points behind.

Anonymous said...

The BBC are as ever doing Labour's job and reporting the Guardian poll inaccurately. Let's see how long they keep misleading people and get around to correcting their story.

AnyoneButBrown said...

What's even better for the Tories is that given the exposure of a campaign the LibDems will certainly pick up votes.
Virtually all those votes will be at Labours expense.
If you guess that the LibDems gain 3 points in the polls, all at Lab expense, i.e
Lab 36
Con 37
LD 19
With the magic of electoral calculus, you have a wafer thin Labour majority of 16, the LibDems eviscerated and humiliation for Brown
If the LibDems gain 4 points, its curtains for Brown....
Will there be an election now?

Anonymous said...

Noel,

I am to say confused by your logic.
The Tories will be worse off after the bournemouth bounce disappears

The tories were in blackpool

Or were the others so bad they will recover when people forget

Anonymous said...

sorry

mining or mincing

Anonymous said...

Yes. I guessed the Labour lead (all else being equal) would increase from 3 to 5 points once the bounce had receded.

Anonymous said...

I am currently engaged in counting the number of angels* standing upon the head of a pin. It is my belief that this will give me an invaluable insight into the state of British politics at the present time.

* For interest, current research indicates that 336 standard angels can stand on the head of a size 28 (flat-headed) pin.

Ross said...

I wonder how much of the bounce is down to the conference, where Cameron held his nerve when the polls were dire, and how much is to do with Brown's Iraq spin backfiring so badly.

Anonymous said...

If a standard angel is anything like the size of a standard tory blogger, your calculation needs some serious work, mate.

Anonymous said...

My feeling is that if Cameron had delivered a crap speech, there would have been no bounce.

I feel people over-reacted to the Iraq thing.

Anonymous said...

The Clucking Fist says Doh!

Wrinkled Weasel said...

Ann Widd is Sixty! It always amazes me that people like Ann (bless her) completely side-stepped the nineteen sixties without so much as an Afghan Coat or a tie-dyed bra or a camberwell carrot.

People say that if you can remember the sixties you weren't in it, and yet, I am sure she is on the cover of Sgt Pepper, next to Aleister Crowley. Or was it Pet Sounds?

It's all a bit hazy, but may she last another sixty.

Anonymous said...

MING THE MERCILESS IS ON QUESTION TIME TONIGHT

Anonymous said...

Ann Widdecombe was a bit of a looker when she was young (allegedly).

Is it true she's now a gay icon? Iain had better be careful.

Anonymous said...

I bet Browns fingernails are getting a gnawing.

So when faced with a crises, and when his job depended on it, the Conservative leader steps out from behind the lectern and delivers a brilliant speech.

I wonder how Brown will react in a crises - will we see much of him this weekend or will it be another McCavity moment?

The spin is that he is the man people trust in a crises - well let us see - will he call the election and fight for it... or bottle?

Steven_L said...

Iain, don't blog when you're drunk from Ms Widdecombs bash. I sometimes blog drunk and the embarrassing evidence is there for all to see.

Anonymous said...

Apparently Nick Griffin will stand in Thurrock if General Election is called.

Who will this effect more - Labour or Tories?

http://simondarby.blogspot.com/

Anonymous said...

If I were Gordon I would go in the next couple of weeks.

With contagion having spread from the credit to the debt markets - and banks tightening their credit risk (i.e. higher mortgages). Now the bond and dollar markets expected to be squeezed by the BRIC countries, the US (and EU) expected to lower interest rates, which will let inflation out the bag. With with the price of basic consumables being pushed up globally because of demand from the BRIC counties and with 10% of uk housing equities shorted by US hedge funds it does not look good for Mr Brown even in a couple of weeks.

As it is it looks like he will call an election a week or so after petrol hits £1 and half a million home owners get rises in their mortgage rates. Poor old sod - you have to feel sorry for him

Anonymous said...

Those scornful of the Tory Bounce will do well to remember that GB is/was benefiting from the same thing.

His honeymoon period has meant that the Tories have hardly had a look in over the last 3 months - leading to an 11 point lead for Labour.

But look what happens after just 1 week of a somewhat level playing field... the lead disappears.

What would happen after a 3 week election campaign where both parties came under the same scrutiny and received equal coverage?

Cameron will of course call for a televised debate which he will win. The usual defence of the incumbent Prime Minister, that such things happen weekly in Parliament, will hardly stack up for Brown, there having been so few.

Anonymous said...

The point is obviously that the Bournemouth bounce will fade just as the Brown bounce did.

After that, who knows.

Anonymous said...

Chris Paul, where are you?
Your boys took a hell of a beating!
Clement Atlee, Ernest Bevin, Dennis Healy, Roy Jenkins, Bob Piper!
Going down, going down, going down!

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Apparently Nick Griffin will stand in Thurrock if General Election is called.
Who will this effect more - Labour or Tories?
http://simondarby.blogspot.com/

Anon, it's a well researched fact that the BNP take the vast majority of their votes from disenchanted Labour voters as people like Margaret Hodge well know. That's why Labour are running scared of them in traditional strongholds like Burnley, Oldham, parts of Yorkshire, the West Midlands, and Dagenham.

The Tories were losing some votes to UKIP, but with the promise of a referendum over the constitution and UKIP in growing disarray this threat is disappearing fast.

Al in all things look bad for Labour and will only get worse IMO.

Anonymous said...

Not good for Gordon.

In my view, things can only get worse.

If he waits, he risks going to the polls after Cameron has spent a few million quid in the marginals and with the economy, more likely than not, in worse condition than it is now.

If he goes now, he is looking at a reduced majority, or even a hung parliament.

No wonder he looks unwell.

Newmania said...

I recall that Iain predicted exactly this timing for the resumption of normal poltics . Now we look back on the Brown bounce isn`t suddenly clear that the end of a ten year premiership was bound to produce a period of unusual patterns and yet what conclusions have been glibly drawn
There is a Real chaNce for David Cameron here and Labour`s position on English votes can become untenable at anything like this voting pattern

Its essentiaL now that the attacks are unceasing and the connection between Blair and Brown repeated again and again and again..new Brown has always been an absurd posture and he will find it awfully hard to duck and weave
Another thng , if the election is called the weeks are like years in 'attention'. Cameron has his year even if brown runs for it.

Old BE said...

I think Iain is a teetotaller Steven!

Polls are fairly meaningless but comparing two polls a few days apart is quite interesting. How is Gordo to spin this one?

Anonymous said...

How is it interesting to compare polls, however many days apart, if they are in any case meaningless?

Anonymous said...

Never mind the Bollocks, The Hitch is back up at:

returnofthehitch.blogspot.com

Not a sheep said...

javelin said... "Poor old sod - you have to feel sorry for him"

Oh no you don't...

Anonymous said...

"The point is obviously that the Bournemouth bounce will fade just as the Brown bounce did."

Good to see you recognise that the Brown poll lead was just a bounce that has now faded.

Not sure you are so right on the Tories though - just watched Question time, and it felt like the audience were looking forward to drawing Labours blood at the election.

Browns Honeymoon is over. He has made big tactical errors in the last few weeks - the trip to Iraq - Public have seen through it and didn't like it, and the hype of the prospect of an election - causing him to have to call one that he would rather not, or back down and show weakness.

Anonymous said...

Ruth Kelly has made a spectacle of herself on Question Time tonight, no surprise there then. Are these people so oafish and arrogant that they don't know when to stop lying even when the audience and everyone else on the panel inc. Dimbleby are jeering and laughing at you.

When you find yourself in a hole stop digging. Hasn't Gordon told you that Ruth or is he so incompetent and arrogant that he doesn't even realise it himself?

To think, these dismal Brownites thought they cold do better than Tony Blair and spent years plotting to get rid of him.

They will put the Labour Party out of ofice for 20 years at this rate.

I despair.

Ted Foan said...

angry blairite (11.29pm) - No Labour for 20 years? Goody goody!

Anonymous said...

Angry Blairite:

Are you one of the early Blairites who sensibly jumped off the sinking ship, or a last-gasp follow-my-Leaderite?

Well, either would be depressed by Ruth Kelly's performance. But surely what has changed is not the standard lies, but the attitude of the presenter and of the carefully selected audience?

Kelly was Blair's creature before she was Brown's.

Anonymous said...

Ming was rather good tonight on Question Time. Can't say the same about the wretched Kelly.

Anonymous said...

Daily Referendum - the only photo to carry a health warning!

Anonymous said...

Kelly was awful on Question time, she couldn't even give a straight answer to whether she wanted an election. Awful
And even Abbot on This Week thinks the great leader has f*cked up
Has the tide turned and its kick the bastards out time.....

Anonymous said...

Steven - Iain doesn't have a taste for alcohol, so perhaps your advice based on your personal experience would be better offered elswhere?

Wrinkled Weasel said...

tachybaptus. Not for the first time have you been spot on. The QT and carefully selected audience seem to have come around somewhat. Unfortunately it also included a rather dim black woman who wanted to indulge in the Diana death conspiracy, which made me wonder if they were using people from the "Trisha" show.

Daily Referendum said...

Terry Tibbs,

My mum says I look smashing.

Where is your picture Brad?

Anonymous said...

Question Time was incredible - maybe the first time I've seen a majority of the audience going for Labour blood. I nearly felt sorry for Ruth Kelly - particularly when she tried to spin that Gordon needed to go to Iraq to consult with commanders/advisors.

And it was quite nice that Osbourne could just deal with figures and the specifics - which he's very good at - while leaving it up to Ian Hislop to make the broad slams against the government. Non-politicians can get away with being more brutal on the programme I feel. And I'm no fan in general, but I think Ming did himself some favours too.

Ted Foan said...

Where are you Iain? Have you been seduced by Ann Widdecombe and decided to stop-over? (Nudge, nudge!)

We need some fresh input on this blog. OK, Kelly was absolutely awful on QT tonight (abbreviations - see Chris Paul, I can do that thang (sic) too! - BTW, where are you? Are you analysing the latest opinion polls to confirm your advice to Gordon not to go before June 2009?)

But wasn't George Osborne very good? He's going up in my estimation. Bit worried about Ian Hislop looking like Nick Robinson though. Can't he afford any better spectacles?

Wrinkled Weasel said...

Diablo, my spies at the Widdecombe bash tell me they were making arrangements to slip out the back and take a short ride in the Audi to Budleigh Salterton - and we all know what that means.

M. Hristov said...

In "Cameron Good Week/Bad Week" (below), I made the point that this period might be like the run up to the First World War where mobilisation became unstoppable. Imagine my surprise to hear a Labour MP, from a marginal seat, making that exact same point on the Channel 4 News report accompanying the Channel 4 poll. He added that no one wants this election. The spinmeisters are watching you Iain.

At one stroke Gordon Brown has destroyed his own honeymoon. He can have his election and lose swathes of seats or he can confirm the fact that he is indecisive and a ditherer. All those newspapers who portrayed him as a genius will be furious. What a shame - Not.

Anonymous said...

As David said above, the mood on Question Time tonight was different.

Personally I have always felt that Ruth Kelly is one of the least credible members of the government and so find it hard to tell whether the audience were anti-Labour or just anti-Kelly.

The mood certainly fitted in with the recent opinion polls. Whether this proves to be a turning point remains to be seen.

As someone above also said, both bounces will fade. At present this has left Brown with about a 3 point lead.

What happens next is very hard to call, even, I suspect, for Stalin.

Ted Foan said...

At last some, some fellow travellers! (We don't need Iain do we?)

Seriously though, as someone once said, we must not forget the other messages that came out from Blackpool. All the MSM hype is about IHT, stanp duty and non-domicile tax but Cameron encapsulated many, many more policies in his closing speech.

Don't let Brown and Co just pick away at the numbers to show they don't add up - that's always their tactic. But there is far more meat than this. Getting people off benefit is a majaor challenge that NuLabour has failed to achieve. The NHS has (is) squandering billions. Wanless has told Brown that there is more waste created by this Government that could be saved. What has he done about it? Sod all!

So, Tory boys and girls, think detail and make sure you know and understand what can and should be done!

Anonymous said...

I reckon I've got it.

As has been said endlessly, it's the younger Labour ministers who are pushing gay gordo to hold a quick election.

The reasons are clear:

1. The economy will turn after a not-great Christmas for retailers (my fund manager friend says 2008 will be very bad for growth).

2. If they go in November 2007, the next election will be just after the 2012 Olympics, so hopefully the economy will have long since turned back up and Labour can bounce off the games.

3. Winning an election in 2007 and 2012 will give Milliband his desired '10 more years'.

The upshot is that the Labour youth want a full decade with their hands on the levers of power and the only way to get it, is to prod Gordo into pushing the button on Monday.

Hanging on means a bad 2008, and not much room to recover for a spring 2009. Waiting till 2010, will mean 13 years of Labour and an inevitable change of government.

BTW, a friend was phoned up today by a department of health official. They've been told to stand by for an announcement on Monday. I don't think it means a green light, but the officials have to spend the weekend preparing to 'lose' their ministers if parliament is disolved.

So the lights will be on in the central London government offices this weekend. Should make a good colour picture for the sundays.

M. Hristov said...

Interesting analysis regarding the "Young Turks" (as Menzies Campbell would call them) in the Labour Party. Remember that their Conservative equivalents "did for" Margaret Thatcher in 1990.

By the way, Andrew Dismore MP is the man who seemingly used my analogy with World War I on Channel 4 today.

“Young Turks” = Turkish cabal including Kemal Pasha, later Atataurk, founded in 1889 ("Ming" probably went to school with them).

Anonymous said...

"My mum says I look smashing.

Where is your picture Brad?"

But what dear boy did you smash into? As for Brad...flattery will get you no where!

Anonymous said...

m histrov: "“Young Turks” = Turkish cabal including Kemal Pasha, later Atataurk, founded in 1889 ("Ming" probably went to school with them)."

Thanks so much!

None of us knew that!

Do, please, post further updates on terminology recently known to you that has been in common parlance for over a hundred years!

Don't be shy! You might be able to make something of "the iron curtain"!

Praguetory said...

This is just the start. Whilst the polls are always going to be a roller-coaster, Labourites on here who think that this round of polls is as bad as it gets for them need to wake up and smell the coffee.

Steven_L said...

"Steven - Iain doesn't have a taste for alcohol, so perhaps your advice based on your personal experience would be better offered elswhere?" (verity)

I've never met the man, but he's never objected to my drunken comments before. In fact he seems to try his best to allow everyone to have their say, no matter how drunken or ridiculous.

On the other hand, if we all followed your advice on the best way to organise human civilisation there would probably be a holocaust mk II.

I've read your comments throughout the blogosphere over the past year or so and you see everything as black or white, you cannot seem to distinguish between the shades of grey in the middle.

Over the years I've experimented with all manner of mindbending drugs and all manner of political thought.

Yes I've written some drunken nonsense, yes I've written some hate-filled bile.

All you ever write verity is nonsensical hate-filled bile if you really want my opinion.

I laugh at what you write but I'd never vote for you to be my leader.

Anonymous said...

The only definitive thing that the polls tell you is that the electorate are swinging to and fro and that there are a lot of people who are actually in the process of or still making their minds up. Brown had a good 100 days but things will and are starting to unravel. This autumn is probably his best "window" and I guess the final analysis will the private pollings of the marginals. If Labour is showing a 10 points lead then I suspect he'll "go" but if they are at only a 3% lead he won't. The interesting thing will be if they show a lead of between 4% - 6% then its touch and go whether he "goes to the country" or "bottles" it.

Vienna Woods said...

With all the ire and vicious retort about the BBC bias in these blogs, are we to assume that this so called "rigged" audience at this weeks Question Time, demonstrates that either:

a) the BBC has changed sides
b) they were always neutral, or
c) it's all done with mirrors!

Alan Douglas said...

Iain, you failed to tell us it was to be a pyjama party !

So when WILL you get home?

Alan Douglas

Chris Paul said...

So, Iain is still not back from Ms Widdy's? And there's me waiting up all night for his analysis ...

Daily Ref: If election called, presumably conference mostly off and there would have actually had to be some proper policy in any speeches??

Are there any more polls due before Thursday?

Time for Gordon to leak the memo outlining the plan to sucker Tories into blowing their cash and revealing their policy-free status.

Old BE said...

Steven:

Verity is a parody poster much like The Hitch - she is actually a wishy-washy leftie, perhaps Estelle Morris. The difference between Verity and The Hitch is that the latter is funny.

Anonymous said...

Maybe Widdy has him held against his will, to be sent to a monastery so that he can be, er, compliant with Catholic teaching...

Anonymous said...

Chris Paul is away attending a "carbon footprint and diversity awareness training course" so he wont be posting for a bit! Ha Ha!
In the back of his mind he is trying to work out the best way to stab his SECOND idol in the back when circumstances permit! Just like he stabbed His former idol(Tony Bliar) in the back as soon as Gordon Brown demanded that kind of loyalty test!
I can see a Stalin type denunciation pattern emerging with these NULAB backstabbers!

Anonymous said...

[iain] - Can't I trade my 'teetotal' brownie points for some man love ?

[widdy] Sorry, babe, it just doesn't work that way ! You have to obey all the laws, all of the time. So now are you ready for some self flagellation?

[iain] Mmm..Yes, now you're talking - that sounds like a much better idea..

Anonymous said...

You still not home ? It must have been a hell of a party...

Newmania said...

Some wonderful material in the New Statesman about the paradoxical bravery of running away this morning .Labour seem to be saying they will attack the tax cuts uin the usual Kidz and hospitalz way.
As Geoff Randall points if you can`t find £3 billion in a £674 billion budget you have to be insane anyway .

Brown`s Freebies are vastly more uncosted...what about some sums on them?

Is Iain at this moment smoking a post coital ciggy with Widd while she makes toast clad only in his "man`s" shirt ?

Newmania said...

...I can hear the soft munching of nails even now ....

Anonymous said...

Brown's cynical attempt to play politics with the lives of British soldier's has destroyed his credibility for me and having been prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt I am now just disgusted by him.

He may have had my vote once but certainly not any more.

Anonymous said...

Having been caught out spinning last week has Brown learnt his lesson. Not a chance. He is back out today spinning the Crossrail announcement for all it's worth.

Shouldn't the Transport Minister be announcing this?

No. Brown gets all the good anouncements and his Ministers have to take any flak that's about.

Old BE said...

I haven't seen the Crossrail thing, but is it Brown who should take credit or the taxpayers of the City of London???

Anonymous said...

Iain you are very quiet this morning - bet Widdy's a right go-er when she gets the chance!

Anonymous said...

Must be a good party if you're still not back yet, Iain!

AnyoneButBrown said...

Just saw an interesting piece of analysis that hasn't been much noted in the media.
If Brown doesn't go now then the election is maybe 2009, so Labour have been in power 12-13 years and look old & tired like the Major government did.
If Brown does go now and wins, the next election is 2012, post Olympics! Labour would expect to win in the afterglow, and will have had another 10 years in power!
A powerful argument for taking the risk and going for it!

Anonymous said...

Take it you had a late night then Iain. Good for you!

David Lindsay said...

Oh stop it, this is just silly!

If fixed-term Parliaments work in Commonwealth countries with the Westminster model including the Queen, then we should have them here. Do they?

Madasafish said...

>anyonebutbrown
If you think the post Olymics glow will give Brown a boost you have a higher opinion of UK athletics than I have.

It's likely to be cost overruns, tight security, traffic jams.. and disappointment with UK performance.

(and a lot of very pissed off charities whose Lottery funding went to pay for the overruns...)

Anonymous said...

Level pegging in polls = Lab victory 30-40 seat.

3% Lab lead = Lab victory 60-70 seats

4 % Lab lead = Lab victory 80-90 seats.

Last election Lab only 36, Tory 33 = Lab victory of 66 seats. ie Lab have gained a 4% share of the vote since 2005 election.

You need to be 5 ahead in the polls just to get to a majortiy of 1

Anonymous said...

WOW WOW is all I can say Iain. When you said last night you were going to be going to Ann Widdecombe's birthday I would have expected you back at a bit after 10pm. Instead its well over 12 hours later and no sign of you. What a night, or is it still going on even as I write. Just cos Ann is still drinking doesnt mean you have to keep up with her. lol

AnyoneButBrown said...

>Madasafish
Maybe.
But if the government pours an epic sum of money in and the weather is kind it just might be a triumph.
If you were locked in the Brown furherbunker you might see the 2012 election as a compelling reason to go now. Maybe
Who knows its all smoke and mirrors...But we'll all know by Tuesday. Either Brown is less of ditherer than thought or he looks an idiot

Sonicdeathmonkey said...

Should we send out search parties?

Anonymous said...

anonymous.10.49.
So will Brown be an idiot if he doesn't call an election? Watch this space.

Alex said...

To the anonymous who says that Conservatives need to be ahead in the polls, tht may not be the case:

Conservatives tend to be older/ retired and are thus more likely to vote on average than voters who poll for Labour. Plus this time,watch all those usually far-too-busy-to-bother-to-vote 30-50 year old working Conservatives who view the prospect of a £300k IHT saving on their parents' home as too good to miss. That on its own is worth a few percent extra.

Madasafish said...

>anyone

I think London ratepayers might disagree.. (not that i am one)...

Mulligan said...

Those who believe that the Tories need to be 11 points ahead at this stage to win might be well advised to study the 1970 election, where a much better Labour government than this shower went into polling day very confident of winning.... the rest is history

Anonymous said...

Gordon. The Clucking Fist

Anonymous said...

Don't get too excited . What these show is Labour stabilising at 38-40% despite all the attacks during Tory conference and negative publicity over Iraq/troops, with Tories up from their core in the low 30s after a good conference week, mainly at the expense of the Lib Dems.

The weighted shares from the three polls are Lab 39.2, Con 36.6, LD 14.3. Bash this into the election calculator and you get a Labour majority of 60. And this is the top end of Tory expectations.

Anonymous said...

I knew Brown had miscalculated. He spends his whole life failing to take risks: he takes one and it backfired. HA! HA! He now must call an election or appear a coward. And 2008 is the year when his fiat currency debt bubble fiasco kicks in. He is in deep trouble. What's more Cameron did a good speech, reasonable-ish and good ending (speech technique wise that is): 8 out of ten. Labour is in troublea also over the postal strikes; funily enough the postal workers timing of their strikes may have saved us from four more years of madness.

Anonymous said...

anonymous.12.28.
OK, tell Brown to call a f*****g election then!

Newmania said...

MADASA fish- the Olympic blank cheque that was written by the little sweety Livingstone is something I would like Boris to take up and what more the extent to which the excess spend was known from the start is a bubbling into a genuine scandal . If you follow it in Private Eye it gets worse and worse. I see a Montreal on the horizon.
Brown is in for some choppy waters whatever he does the tax receipts have exceeded estimates every year which is what has saved him but they are spectacularly down from Companies now. Further more the PFI trick and the ever altering cycle are under scrutiny and he cannot do it again.
Geoff Randall pointed out this AM that Brown’s promises are entirely unfunded and a vast deal harder to adjust than £3 billion of mostly funded tax cuts ( out of about £650 billion you can’t find some loose change ...do me a favour ). WE are already £30 billion in debt in this supposedly prosperous country.

The question is what does Flash Gordon fear most. A Conservative Party opening up his desk and showing the world what he really was, or the effect of bad news as it comes . I suspect he will go now but if he does not we will be stuck with him for the very long haul. His behaviour over the whole issue is disingenuous as you would expect.

You have to remember for all the bravado ( a win is a win), a massively reduced majority would lose Labour England and be a defeat for Brown . His administration would be a ‘stoning’ with his idiot head defenceless .

I have always thought he was a coward like most bullies . That can be the only reason he has out his name to two ghost written waffles about courage .The reported meeting never happened actually by the way. More little brown lies. We cannot guess what bizarre mental stew bubbles away in his warped mind and I suspect he is as likely ot be motivated by sexualised panic of a corseted Viennese neurotic than by MOSAIC , the Labour Psephological soft wear.

Balls , DARLING ......I CANNY TEK IT


PS I don`t think those lazy socialists will go out in the cold ...its a factor but collapsing tax recipts has to be the winning card.He will scamper , and soon

Anonymous said...

Its a scandal that the labour party don't have to foot the bill for Brown's Iraq trip last week.

Doesn't something like 80% of the tax take comes from natural tory voters?

Anonymous said...

Anybody know where Ann had her birthday party, if we split-up and zone off the areas around it we might be able to find Iain before Gordon annouces the election...

Unless Gordon has recruited a new adviser and is keeping Iain in his secret underground HQ. Another Tory defection I think we should be told...

Anonymous said...

RUMOUR Iain has skipped the country to live with Verity.

Anonymous said...

Thought he had more taste

Vienna Woods said...

What does she look like first thing in the morning Ian?

On second thoughts, don't answer that!

Anonymous said...

She might be lovely in the morning, it could be like that advert for those fat-free snacks with her off This Morning, Fern??? She might not yet have put her fat suit on... Mind you Ann must be raking it in now she has turned to TV adverts to make some extra money.

Chris Paul said...

major disaster? john is that you? don't worry iain will apologise for missing you out of his hot 100 "later" when he is finally back from widdy's party. obviously I blogged about Iain's kidnap fully six hours ago here. Tried to ride on the shirt tails of his footy "exclusive" also.

Daily Referendum said...

Rochester?

Newmania said...

EXCLUSIVE- I have just been told that Iain is in fact Tara Hamiton Miller the NewStatesman Tory insider.Once you know its sooooo obvious

At the moment he wil be saying to Widdy " Its not you ...its me "..thats what I used to say to a devastated floozy anyway

Anonymous said...

I always used to say PLEASE PLEASE to a floozy, but they were never deverstated. Funny that.

Anonymous said...

This blgo is SO much better without Iain. Instead of politics its just mindless gossip. Much better.

Anonymous said...

He's been found.. Iain beat Gordon to it and has started to dig the cross-rail project.

Anonymous said...

When it comes to digging hole……..Brown does it better.

Anonymous said...

True and he's got lots of stuff to fill it with...

Anonymous said...

Let me guess..........Brown Stuff?

Anonymous said...

Nope our money

Anonymous said...

Must have been a hell of a party??

Wake up Iain!

Anonymous said...

Is it time to start calling round the hospitals?

Newmania said...

I think there were about 100o for the ICM Poll the FHM SexPoll had a sample of 20,000. The folwoing contains some of its interesting findings..( while we are waiting for Dale ..)




After the end of donor anonymity there are now 205 sperm donors in Britain

The smallest average cock size is the Chinese at 4.9.inches. 7.5 inches is the Swedish and Bulgarian “ideal” and in Britain it is “7 inches”

During the first year of the Nazi invasion, the Red army issued 800,000 death sentences to its own soldiers

2 is the average number of sex toys owned by British women 0.36 is the Indonesian figure perhaps because masturbation is punishable by death there

In 2006 177 British men had surgery to reduce their breast size

Manchester has the worldwide high for women that swallow after a blow job at 50% and another 20% who sometimes do

The production of kilogram of Beef emits the same amount of CO2 as the average European car driving 250 KM

53 % of births in London are to immigrant mothers . In Kensington and Chelsea the figure is 68%


43% of Glaswegian women claim they are more tuned on by porn than sex and 22&%( the highest) of Edinburgh Women would change their boyfriends cock

Transport for London employs 232 people on more than £100,000 per year. The home office employs 43 the treasury seven


The top US 25 hedge fund managers earn more than the CEO s of the S and P 500 companies combined


The UK average for losing your virginity is 15 .5 but higher in Scotland at sixteen years 5 months ( wonder why the bother seeing what they get )


Windscreen wipers, laser printers and bullet-proof vests were all invented by women

And finally the bad news at a rating of 8.5 out of ten the Australian male is officially the one who keeps his woman happiest


Sources

New Scientist, No Simple Victory Norman Davies , BBC New Online Home Office , newsWeek, FHM sex Survey and BORIS JOHNSON

Guess which is which

Anonymous said...

The post has changed the bit where Iain says he is off in Widdys has gone. Has he re-surfaced?

Anonymous said...

StevenI- "I've never met the man, but he's never objected to my drunken comments before." No one objects to your drunken comments. But suggesting that Iain, who doesn't like alcohol, was writing drunk was self-referentially pointless.

"I laugh at what you write but I'd never vote for you to be my leader." As I'm not running for leader of anything, I accept your decision with great calm.

"Over the years I've experimented with all manner of mindbending drugs ...". You don't say.

Anonymous 2:15 a.m. In all the semi-excitment, I'd forgotten all about the Olympics. If the Tories are in government by then, and Boris is Mayor of London, can we cancel them and save Londoner taxpays the several billion pounds that were to be spent in the service of Blair's ego? I agree with Newmania and Mad As A Fish.

Also, we need to get this monstrous mosque cancelled.

Anonymous said...

Pity Verity can't disappear for abit like Iain did.

Newmania said...

NO Iain and Widdy are at this moment running naked on a beach baying at each other like primeval mastodons across a swamp. It was always a matter of meeting the right woman for Iain. In fact I suspect he isn`t gay at all but just pretends ( to be trendy).
Mistook mushy peas for Guacamole in Blackpool you know....


Well that told you Steven....oddly enough having read both of your remarks often I think you might have more in common than you think.(Politically that is )

Anonymous said...

Claire and other mongs today, play the ball not the woman.

Anonymous said...

Derby Pattern >> can you make your point without using offensive terms?

Anonymous said...

You have to laugh - the initial estimate for the cost of the Games in London was £2.3 billion - round about the time it was shown that they were costing 4x that in GREECE! Er, are prices of things in London generally a quarter of what they are in Greece then?

I predict a cost of £30 billion, which is why the Games should stay in Britain but be moved to some filthy maggot-ridden Labour-voting scumhole. Like Manchester, or Tyneside, or Hull. Then the buggers can pay the south back out of their own pockets for what they've done to use for 10 years, the benefit-sucking bunch of northern tapeworms.

Anonymous said...

You find ‘mong’ offensive?

And yet said nothing about personal insults directed at Verity.

Edward, you are a sanctimonious hypocrite and I claim my 5 pounds.

Anonymous said...

Derby Pattern >> Yes I do find the term mong offensive and yes I said nothing about the 'insults' (I would say truth) being directed at 'verity' So apart from stating the obvious what is your point? £5??? Are you a nu-lab collector?

Anonymous said...

Oh Edward, you are precious.

‘nu-lab collector?

An offensive term and no, I am not.

Anonymous said...

Derby Pattern >> Why you go around asking for £5, then. Wierdo

Anonymous said...

Oh Edward,

You silly, silly boy

Anonymous said...

Glad to see we have a high level of conversation and comment today.