political commentator * author * publisher * bookseller * radio presenter * blogger * Conservative candidate * former lobbyist * Jack Russell owner * West Ham United fanatic * Email iain AT iaindale DOT com
Interesting - but it will be the private polling that is being done in the marginals that will be of most concern to the Prime Minister.
i do hope brown spins more and more, pressing the self destruct button
Iain , I hope you made some money with all your hysterical ramping of false poll results . Will it be enough to make of for your destroyed reputation for serious blogging of important political issues ?
We need really to compare with a clutch of polls, but it looks like the Conservatives have improved largely at the expense of the Lib Dems and that Labour has not lost significant support.
Never mind that - Ming's in deep doo-doo... I wonder when the Huhney Monster will strike?
Given the +/- 3% accuracy usually claimed for polls, nothing much seems to have changed since before the party conferences. Sill if you want to take comfort from being only 4 points behind after two and a half years of a third term...
when ming goes, i'm sure labour's lead will go
great no election and the beginning of the end for Browm
Election cancelled. Brown's bottled it.
Wow!Tories 3% ahead this afternoon and now 4% behind. A swing of 3.5% in a matter of hours.They're shedding votes at an alarming rate.Go for it Gordon!!!
Question: it is better for us or worse in the current situation for the LDs to self-destruct? Feels to me like we need a solid performance from the LDs in the north to have a chance.
Quite good for Brown, not so brilliant for Cameron, total car crash for Campbell.I am Labour but I don't want an election, but the poll shows we'd win hands down.
Last weeks C4 results were Lab 44, Con 33 and LibDem 13. So Labour have lost 4, the conservatives have gained 3 and the LibDems are unchanged.This poll last week was the one that gave Labour the largest lead. The other polls when they come out should show it to be even closer or a conservative lead.
John Curtice has just correctly pointed out, on C4news, that the real swing from pre-conference to post-conference is 0.5% from Labour to Tory - and this is the high mark for the tories!!
Brown should call, 40% whats he waiting for?
Gordon Brown surely won't call an election after that. He can't be that stupid, can he? (not sure if that's rhetorical).
I'm genuinely surprised at the resilience of the Labour vote - 40% is very very good.
Election is cancelledBrown will bottle it
The field work was done during the conference so no firm conclusions can really be drawn. I don't think this is a particularly significant poll tbh.
Cameron should challenge Brown to a live TV Debate. Brown would never agree as he knows that Dave would come out better - the human would beat the ogre!
Polls are a measurement of the effectiveness of propaganda. Normally commissioned by the people that produced the propaganda.Democracy as we have it, is a self enslaving dialectic construct to ensure a very dominate small minority though the mass media, can totally dictate to an even smaller minority. Which are 'swinging voters' in marginal constituencies, that completely decide election results.If the MSM is told Cameron is "The Man That Would Be King." He will become the next Prime Minister. Its that simple. The sheep just follow the heard.
Gordon Brown has not been known for seizing the day. It looks like the Tories have done the job needed by making him not hold an election. This is his best chance. As the weeks and months go on, the chickens of his 10 year chancellorship will come home to roost
According to Electoral Calculus, the YG poll gives Labour a 94 seat majority.... and the tories are happy with it !?!Tory complacency = 5 more years in the wilderness.
I plugged those numbers into http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ and it showed Lib Dems down to 4 seats! A few more polls like this and I can't see Ming being there for much longer.
All well and good, but Labour still have an inbuilt 4% lead in the electoral system. So in reality they still have an 8% lead! Rain eh?
If Brown doesn't go now, Ming will certainly step down in the near future and then Gordon will be facing David Cameron & Nick Clegg at the next election - a far less appetising prospect for him.
How poignant, eh Iain?They'll be a few more polls this week and next, so let's wait and see how the scene looks after them.
Could the UKIP conference tomorrow make a difference?
Media polls always downgrade lib dem chances, but the lib dem activist base on the ground will always fight hard against the national swing. Talk of Lib Dems losing 40 seats is way off the mark. Seats such as Westmorland, Man Withington, Outer York will all be Lib Dem due to local ability.
This means there is no way Gordon will risk anyone else getting their paws on the train set he has waited 13 years for... The bad news is he might wait until 2010 and pursue a 'scorched earth' policy in Government, by which time our 'tax and spend' decisions will be taken in Brussels anyway..
Oh dear what can the matter be,The polls are all bad so he's hid in the lavatory,That's why they call him Gordon Macavity,He thinks we don't know that he's there.
just tried out a more likely poll on electoral clalculus- Lab 38% (353 seats) , Con 35 (226) LD 20 (41). Gives Labour a majority of 56. That to me sounds like the sort of seats and majority we can expect.
anonymous.7.41.Ok, I am willing to believe you. Let's see if GB believes you and calls an election in the next couple of weeks. If he doesn't we know what the answer to that is.
The really amazing thing is that after the inept and disastrous government of the past 10 years, 40% of the population are so thick they'd cheerfully vote for more of the same.All it shows is that it really is 'the economy stupid', and that the UK's surfing of the global boom has been the luckiest thing that's ever happened to the Labour party. Now the cracks in that boom are starting to show, and if Brown doesn't go now, he'll be absolutely fooked as the economy goes into reverse. It was the negative equity caused by Black Wednesday that did for the Tories last time, and the same will do for Brown
All it shows is that most people are stupid morons.The Devil recently said that socialists are stupid. (Well he actually used a rude word or two)Most Labour voters are not socialists though, they are just morons who have been taught from birth to put a cross in the Labour box. Look at 'em! On vox pops, in the paper, in the street in their leisure suits, smoking a Lambert and Butler and getting ash on their maternity smocks.You can't talk to them about the environment, it's they that throw their detritus out of the windows of their cars and its them that live in squalour and cannot see beyond the fact that DC is a toff.As for rocket-eating guardianistas (I actuall saw one last week, at a farmer's market, BUYING ROCKET and shouting to spouse, "James, I've already bought a Guardian") they sould all be shot. They are all (insert the Devil's favourite term of abuse here).Get used to the idea that thousands of people give their money over to Nigerian scammers and are probably also the people who believe the shite peddled by Gordon Brown.It's HOPELESS!
Me thinks the Tories are in deep doo doo and Dave I love you babe should be replaced with William has been Hague.
Anon@8:35 PM,Get a grip of yourself.The Guardian are putting us level at 38 each. And it is only going to get better.
The thing I'm worried about is that with the Lib Dems collapsing we could end up with them losing 50 seats, we gain 40 and Labour gain 10, actually increasing their majority. However I'm still of the impression that Labour would lose 2-4 points to the Conservatives over the course of a campaign as the equal TV coverage rules kick in. Brown certainly seems to have created a nasty situation for himself...Whether he goes for an election or pussies out, there's a real chance that in a few weeks time Brown could be a national laughing stock.
If Brown goes for an election in Nov the Conservatives will be the largest party afterwards.When we get media coverage our support rockets. Labour have only got their lead by taking all the oxygen out of the media room and spinnign like crazy.They are an empty husk of a movement, and a dying party. In the South of England they are being exterminated in vast regions of the country.
What a good night. It is sheer magic to witness Brown being caught in his own trap. From now on there can only be one way for gordon to go, and that is down. His clever little stunt in Iraq has totaly backfired against him.He has spent years depriving the forces and then uses them for his own political gain. For that he is beneath contempt. he has proven that he is not fit to be Prime Minister. That is enough of my rant, I will retire to be savouring these poll results.
In "Cameron Good Week/Bad Week" (below), I made the point this period might be like the run up to the First World War where mobilisation became unstoppable. Imagine my surprise to hear a Labour MP from a marginal seat making that exact same point on the Channel 4 News report accompanying this poll. He added that no one wants this election. The spinmeisters are watching you Iain. What a victory for Cameron. I bet Phil Davies MP(Shipley) isn’t "bottling it".
At bottom, voting is tribal. Guardian readers, for example, vote Labour, not because they have carefully weighed the arguments, or have any real understanding of economics, but because that's what you do if you're a member of that particular tribe. Bit like Africa, really.The Tories task is to enlarge their tribe. They have to persuade tens of thousands of people that voting Labour is soooo last year.
Level pegging in polls = Lab victory 30-40 seat.3% Lab lead = Lab victory 60-70 seats4 % Lab lead = Lab victory 80-90 seats.Last election Lab only 36, Tory 33 = Lab victory of 66 seats.You need to be 5 ahead in the polls just to get to a majortiy of 1.
Even the Channel 4 poll showed that more people interviewed said that they were voting Conservative than Labour:C:557L:550LD:172Excluding "Don't knows" and "Won't votes", this is almost identical to the Guardian poll:C: 38.5%L: 38.1%LD: 11.9%That would leave the Lib Dems on 3 seats according to Electoral Calculus
You have to laugh at the Labour vermin who comment on here. "38% each means Labour get a 60 seat majority, and gets a majority even if we lose. So that's all right then."Stalinist bunch of tapeworms.
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