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I'll be on the new Sky News Web 2.0 programme
at 7.30pm tonight.
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I've said for some time now that we won't be able to really judge where the parties stand until sometime after the party conferences. The polls released yesterday evening show that there is enormous volatility in the electorate at the moment, and this is the real dilemma for GordonBrown this weekend. I'm on the record that I have always thought Brown wanted to call an autumn election and would indeed do so. He's certainly been marching his troops towards the top of the hill. But these polls surely mean that he will hesitate before sending them down the other side.
However, if you look at the detail of the polls, and go beyond the headline figures, you find that not an awful lot has changed. What may tip the balance in favour of an election are the comparative figures between Brown and Cameron. Despite a small narrowing of the gap, Brown still comes out way ahead on most comparisons.
All the signals coming from "sources close to..." as quoted in the morning papers would still lend weight to the theory that an election will be called next week. Tuesday seems the favourite, but surely that would be difficult if the CSR and pre budget report is announced then. I think Thursday is the last day he can call a November 1 election.
So all in all, I am not sure we are much further forward apart from conformation that the Conservatives have turned things around.
37 comments:
Brown will go to the country in November- or he's bonkers! The poll's cannot be trusted as far as i'm concerned- and Labour's lead has been consistent for some months now. With the predicted collapse of the 'giving gay people a bad name' Party ( the Libbies), Brown can be confident of some gains. If Brown makes moves to raise the threshold of inheritance tax- then he will get a substantial overall majority.The risk of NOT going now and waiting for another full year could mean that the economic slump may hit his chances later on down the line. The git.
I think Gord will wait, as you can't expect Labour voters to get off their backsides in cold weather can you. Also if he waits until next year Jeremy Kyle will have finished and they will be able to leave their council housesand vote before This Morning starts
He already has raised the IHT threshold to £325k, quite enough for most - even if he decides he wants to target London, we middle income asset rich voters down here would think it rather at odds with redistibutive taxation policies to reward inherited wealth wof £1m with a gift of £270000, and do nothing for those worth less than £325k.
Tuesday 9 October is the last day an election can be called for a 1 Nov election as it leaves 17 days (exc. weekends) between the dissolution of Parliament and the election which is the minimum permitted. Alternatively he has until 16 October to dissolve Parliament for a 8 Nov election.
The report on R4s WATO at lunchtime alleged that Brown wants a few more weeks to torpedo Tory claims that the non doms could fund inheritance tax cuts. So he's not quite ready for an election yet. Is this really how his mind is working - or should I say not working? What a loser this guy is - the longer this election tease goes on the more people will realise they've been sold a pig in a poke. Earlier this year Matthew Parris wrote a perceptive article on how Gordon is a bit like the Wizard of Oz - events are beginning to prove how right he was.
At daft question... but could he hold it on 27 December?? Not saying he will for a moment; unless in the pre-budget report they annouce that everyone will get a free turkey!!
Anyone know what's happening in Scotland pollwise? The SNP must be a real threat there and are sure to take some seats - but how many?
On today's Today the first item after the 8am news was an interview with Bill Clinton about his new book which he was in London to promote. Not major news you may think, but towards the end of the interview the interviewer, I think it was Naughtie, gave Clinton an opportunity to say what he thought of Gordon.The glowing reference followed.Biased BBC or what
I thought the headline referred to your imminent announcement as a ppc.
Iain wont become a PPC until he has done HIGNFY. If he did hignfy as an MP then people would just call him the next Charlie Kennedy. Given how late he was out last night he may already be proving that point.
This is a disappointingly muted response to the latest polls.
I expected you to climb onto the nearest rooftop and declare the election as good as won.
Something is afoot.
C'mon, Iain. 'Sources close to' are just pulling and pushing expectations around as part of the usual manipulation of the media, specifically to take the shine off Cameron's conference by stirring up the prospect of an election and putting attention back onto Brown with the 'will he / won't he' stuff. The only sane approach to this nonsense is to ignore it, and focus on things that don't change from minute to minute. Which of the actors is self-confident, even bold ? Which knows this is his only chance ? Which knows this chance will very likely be followed by another ? Which knows he has to gamble to win ? Which fears that by gambling he may lose ?
He will. Announcement later today
enormous volatility? According to my maths an 8% swing represents 1 person in 25 changing from Labour to Tories. But in the end you only need 51%. And the personal comparisons Brown v Cameron werent very promising. I suspect behind the irrational exuberance it was mostly to do with the inheritence tax changes.
I'm not a labour troll - I'd love to find a reason to get rid of the big brown stain but the Torys would be wrong to think there isnt a huge amount of work to do and not just "one more shove".
Has anyone else received unsolicited emails from the Prime Minister's office today? (how the hell did they get my email address?)
It contains a link to the PM site where it tells you all the marvellous things Brown is going to do for us.
Seems a bit sinister to me.
On the election question. Come on Iain, Brown is a bottler and he's bottled it on this one even though the upcoming economic meltdown means this may be his last chance of ever being reelected.
Think you're talking up an election, Iain.
It would be SO tacky of Gordon Brown to call an election with all the problems it would create - the million lost votes, the postal strike, the cold weather...
A Novmeber election really would be CHEAP politics.
Good form would be to call it in 2009.
Well stand by for a row about postal votes, then.
Iain won't go on HIGNFY because he isn't interesting or debauched enough.
Now, if he really has been peeling black grapes with his toes and giving them to Ann Widdecombe, who, in turn has been snorting coke from Iain's ear, well, he might get on if a Libdem backs out at the last minute.
He's a decent sort of chap really, and I fully intend to continue stalking him for the moment.
November too. Why don;t you give us an edit option??
There now follows a statement by the Prime Minister, The Right Honourable Gordon Brown M.P.
"Good Evening. After many days of wild speculation regarding a General Election I feel that it is incumbent on me to put the record straight. These rumours are damaging to the BRITISH nation and I will NEVER allow party to be put above country. Accordingly I must make it perfectly clear that it is and never was my intention to call an election at this time and I hope that this categorical statement will finally put pay to the hysteria whipped up by the right wing press and an opportunistic Tory Party. My priorities are as always getting on with my job and ensuring that the hardworking BRITISH people continue to enjoy the benefits of a Labour government which over the last decade has brought them economic stability;an improved education system;safer streets and a National Health Service, free at the point of use, and second to none. Remember you can depend on me to always do what is right for BRITAIN. Good Night"
Eh!?!
If anything the detailed figures in the polls show the opposite.
The sheer volatility of the polls has shown how soft that Labour lead was, regardless of the fact that the Tories got a conference boost.
Also, over the last few months the weakest polling figures for Brown and Labour have been in key marginals. They were always the key to any decision Brown took, they have not improved or become more bankable, that is why I never believed that there would be an election this Autumn. As with everything else with Brown, read the small print in the polls.
Agree with anonymous. Brown will at this moment be working on his exit strategy. Won't bore you with the details but something like this
PM does not respond to every rumour.... continued speculation is damaging to Britain which I will not allow...have to intervene now......no election in 2007....set up cross party commission to examine feasibility of fixed terms...too much power centred on one individual....not fair....etc.
And it will all, from top to bottom, be a lie. Gordon Brown. A man you can trust.
Last week the Sunday Times reminded it's readers that a Mori poll at the last general election showed that 58% of voters from ethnic communities voted Labour, and only 10% for Tory.
With this in mind, Brown, and his cronies in the Foreign Office must be rubber-stamping through all new arrivals like crazy!
GB & his sycophantic crowd as demonstrated & lead by his attack dog Balls ed or is it Ed Balls!(the one with verbal diarrhoea) would do well to stop the photo opportunities & keep their heads down.
Any more New Hospitals to 're-open 'Gordon Brown....& your new Wanless(report), Lord Stazi(report).. to be titled "Champion of Innovation" !!! it's like what the Americans term..."the Funnies"!
if I hear one more time "Brown's bottled it" I really will take to the bottle. You don't win elections by pissing contests or whose leader comes with bigger testes either. It's precisly at these times when all the Tories relax and think it's in the bag that things slide downhill...once again. Mr Dale is right on this. An enormous amount of party discipline is required but this requires more than glib put-downs of labour or GB. Do you think they are sitting there in their cups going "woe is us, admit it Gordon, we're only ahead in the polls by 4% - pass the gin Ed - we're fucked!"?. No - they are planning a detailed strategy to derail the Tory "comeback". Hope we are still on the offensive. The reason for beating labour is not because we childishly "hate socialists" but because we know we can provide a better smaller Government solution for Great Britain.
If Gordon Brown calls an election for early November, I predict that among the talking points for Labour candidates and mouthpieces will be that it would be most unkind of the voters to turf out Gordon after such a short time in office. Any questions along the lines of "Well, who called the election, then?" will be brushed off as malicious, heartless Tory spin ("So, you want Gordon's children to homeless, do you?) or as demented Lib Dem ravings.
Go! Gordon, Go!
I suspect Iain's mission (should he choose to accept it) in deepest darkest Kent today was to discuss being the Tories "Head of Internet Strategy".
Am I right or am I right?
The new party is here - read all about it on my blog.
yeah dave lindsay - those policies will really get you elected - in Buckfuckstan. Save your breath noddy.
Well, with the Election almost certainly now not this year after all, we'll see, won't we?
I knew the One Party wouldn't like the competition. Yes, it really is a catalogue of everything that you are against.
David Lindsay
sorry mate I'll give it a miss, your constant sniping and posting about this new party is just one big 'King turn off. Good luck though. Bye
Is shows why GB waited years and years before coming PM, bit of dithering but this is important. He would win an election but by a reduced majority, if he waits he could lose. Tough Call but if GB is a good politican he will go now, and have a majority between 10 - 40. If he waits he could lose and the Conservatives could gain an over all majority.
i dont think he will go for election unless he really believes the economy is in for a sharp down turn. casinos have been cancelled he is not a gambling man
Watched the prog last night, and should point out it is the IgNobels, not the El Gee nobels....
In Edinburgh we have a First Minister.
In London you have a Frit Minister.
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