LibDem blogger Andy Mayer has a very interesting article on the state of the LibDems. I don't agree with him on all his analysis but at least he has the courage to confront some difficult issues - unlike some of his colleagues who are acting like ostriches. Click HERE to read it.
UPDATE: Ben Brogan has news that the LibDems are predicted to win, er, no seats at the next election, according to Electoral Calculus.
UPDATE 11pm: ConservativeHome has news of another poll putting the LibDems on 12%. Wake up guys and smell the coffee!
13 comments:
Is there such a thing as a significant LD core vote? Most of their success is due to pavement politics, outrageous misrepresentations of their opponents and a blatant appeal for tactical voting.
Simon Lamb has this spot on.
Interesting data about approval ratings.
But hark, what's that low rumbling? Could it be the drumbeat to Le Guillotine?
They were dismissive of Steel.
Disloyal to Ashdown.
Discontinued poor old Kennedy.
And now they can't help dissing poor old Ming.
He should put a bit of stick about before its too late.
Beware. Like Rosa Klebb they have daggers in those sandals...
They won't need daggers. Some of the more venerable LDs should be able to strangle Ming with just their beards, knotted into a rope.
4 Comments in 4 hours.
That confirms what the polls say.
Everyone has defected from the LD's already. Nobody cares much anymore...
Poor Old Ming. Is this the end for the LD's?
Is this the end for the LD's?
Well one poll says it is:
From Ben Brogan's site:
Electoral Calculus has just posted an up to date prediction for the general election based on its analysis of the latest polls, which you can study at its excellent website. I pass it on only because it's so stark for Sir Menzies Campbell - Labour: 352; Tories: 257; Lab maj: 54. See what's missing? That's right, LD: 0.
Oh er, does that mean Brown is planning to call in Andrew Marr to announce a November election then?
Hmmn, so BB and co think there'd be a Lab majoriy of 95 and you Tories think that's funny?
What an odd lot you are!
By bottling it has Gordon ensured that Ming will be the LibDems IDS? Brought down before he can lose an election for them? Certainly seems that way. Problem is, they knifed Kennedy, if they knife Ming as well people will really see them for the cynical pathetic bunch of opportunistic con-artists that they really are! Liberals like to portray themselves as a cuddly alternative to the big two parties, truth is of course that what the subjected poor Charlie to was so vicious and so ruthless if they do it again people will simply write them off forever. Good riddance!
The tumbrels will rumble very soon but not quite yet, as that would be indecent haste, after the events of this September/October. I suspect that the first move will be to offer “Ming” the pistol in the darkened room routine. In short, a way out by retirement. If that fails and Lady (Elspeth) Campbell may ensure that it does, then things could get very nasty indeed. The Lib Dems seem to be very efficient at getting rid of embarrassments and potential embarrassments from J. Thorpe to C. Kennedy. I suppose that the “international community” could be persuaded to make “Ming” Viceroy of some failed state, just as Ashdown was made Viceroy of Bosnia (sorry High Representative). By the way, didn’t Ashdown sack three Presidents of Bosnia? Now there is real power. Eat your heart out Gordon Brown. “Ming” could rebuild Zimbabwe, after Comrade Robert Mugabe gets the boot. He’d be brilliant at that.
Simon Lamb (6.42pm):
"Is there such a thing as a significant LD core vote? Most of their success is due to pavement politics, outrageous misrepresentations of their opponents and a blatant appeal for tactical voting."
Where I live (North Midlands old mining town) the Labour Party used to be able to put up a pig with a red rosette and they would get in by a mile - until the LibDems used their guile and "pavement politics" to get themselves an elected MP in 2001. They also took the local council after decades of Labour power-mongering in cohorts with the trade unions.
As a Conservative, this is a bit galling but at least it keeps another NuLabour apparatchik out of the loop. And it also gives me the quandary of whether to vote tactically for the LibDems or "waste" my vote on a no-hope Conservative candidate.
Up to now, I have stuck to my guns and voted Conservative - just to register my vote for them - but in the next election I may have to make a tactical vote for the LibDems as I fear they may be facing a tougher challenge from NuLabour - although this amounts to no more than smears in the local press on their alleged finacial mis-management at present.
How often will this situation apply across the country and inflate the LibDems apparent popularity?
Diablo - That just the way the FPTP system works a. It is infuriating to see a Party , soi disant , operate as a franchise for any local gripe from immigration to environment .Nonetheless ,swings and roundabouts accounted for , FPTP is still infinitely better than Byzantine Political Court Eunuchs carving up the territory after a PR non-decision. Iain reminded me that the Lib dems are a coalition of social democrats and Liberals and while there may be some point in the Liberal Party there is absolutely no point in the “SDP” . Those pallid socialists with Muesli gone back to Labour .
David Cameron has , as yet , failed to convince Liberals that they can join us in resisting the authoritarian bumblin’ Brown and this asymmetry of defections is a real problem . It gives the lie to the Liberal claim to have been other than socialists thus far . They can hardly claim to stand for Liberality; the canyon of emptiness where purpose should be , defeats attempts to claim any special territory . Even their teeny squeaks about surveillance would not survive the first death notionally attributable to the lack of dawn to dusk snooping.
For all this there are some great ideas emerging for this quixotic pick and mix selection. Their ideas on community housing were echoed in the Conservative Party and represent a thoughtful attempt to solve the great problem of the day . The concept of restitution to the ‘victim of injustice’ under the Law ,is one the Conservative Party would do well to consider.
On this blog and around the right of centre blogashere there have been certain individuals who have irresponsibly and impolitely abused members of the Liberal Party as adolescent onanists who have rushed to their room and slammed the door on reality( ahem...) but the truth is this .
For a Conservative administration to succeed the forces ranged against
Brown must grown by another 11%. In order to do this we must call on the vestigial sense of those UKIP members unimpressed by those seeking makes careers out of a trainer pony in the media . The coalition also has to include real Liberals ( often Euro sceptics by the way) who surely must wince to be bulwarking the most centralising and coercive government we have had since the war under the banner “Liberal”. That is the task. Only a Party which can contain a spectrum from Nigel Farrage to Nick Clegg can take this country back from its abusers and we should stop imagining we can all agree about everything .
Liberals I clutch you to my bosom , I love and I would like us to put our petty differences asideLet us work together against Jabba The Hut and his Mephistophelean schemes to destroy this beautiful green land and its free people .I `l sorry this will oblige you to abandon your Party but your views will command respect and consideration in the Conservative Party.
Just as well that there is now a serious party of liberal democracy: of freedom, of social justice, of a real NHS, of peace and disarmament, of the countryside, of agriculture and small business, of British independence, and of a real voice for the old Liberal areas that have had to vote for the Lib Dems despite having nothing in common with them. The party of Lloyd George, Keynes and Beveridge is back; the party of conservative values and the party of labour.
With the Election no earlier than 2009, we could not possibly do any worse than the Lib Dems, and should be thoroughly ashamed of ourselves if we don't actually do better.
See my blog for full details.
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