It's clear to most political observers that the LibDem vote is being squeezed. Those who had gone to the LibDems because they had become disillusioned with Tony Blair are returning from whence they came, and going out the other door are those who find the new look Conservatives an attractive proposition. The inheritance tax announcement has attracted back many people to the Conservative tent, many of whom voted LibDem last time.
The LibDem polling performance now seems to be in the 11-15% area, whereas a few weeks ago it was 13-17%. How much lower can they go before the consider the nuclear option? I imagine the phonelines in the Clegg and Huhne households have been slightly busier than usual this weekend.
16 comments:
In answer to 'where's Brown's mandate'? Why can't Mandellson fulfil the role?
The Liberal Democrats are in a bit of a fix. Their leader is demonstrably not working out, and this is at a time when any leader would have found themselves under pressure from Cameron's Conservatives. To be fair it is difficult for them to deal with this in public, but if the pressure does not come for change then there will be no change. One service that the Liberal Democrat blogosphere can offer is to act as a fair conduit of opinion. If they don't do that then what good are they? But, hey, I'm a Tory to so long may they practise their self-censorship.
Ironic, ins'nt it, the film Flash Gordon versus Ming the Merciful was on television today.
I reckon before the week is out, Ming will be in the sights of the Liberal Democrats. The big issue though is how the Cornish Liberals are imploding. Predictions are that there will be five tory MPs at the liberal democrat expense, and that is with a vacuum of conservative activists in the County. Oppositions do not win elections- those in power lose them!
The Cornish Libs are suffering because of local issues which relate to bad roads, redundancies in the Clay Pits, 50% proposed increase in sites for Gypsies, high Council and water tax and the proposed Unitary Authority and the dissolution of district councils.
None of it is because the tories are doing well,though the Cornish like the tory handout on Inheritance Tax. Few doubt that Flash Gordon will raise this to £500,000 in the pre budget review with further promises to match the Tories.
I put money on a liberal succession soon!
Perhaps they are following your lead in not discussing things that are unpalatable to the Tories.
Labour home isn't exactly fun at the moment either ...
steph,
Bear in mind that house prices in Cornwall have rocketed even since the last election. A lot of incoming wealthy pensioners moving in from the Home Counties (with whom the IHT position will play very well and who should lift the Tory vote); and noticeable emigration from the working/lower middle class. Things should steadily improve for the Tories in Cornwall if we now have another 18 months plus to work these seats. But they are going to need a sensitive helping hand from the centre.
Iain, you are asking a party that is in a permanent state of campaigning, to actually stop and ponder what the yare doing.
They will not do that because they fear anything they say maybe taken down and used in a leaflet against them. Becuase that is what they do to their opponents.
LD Voice has a private area where a bit of debate goes on but they rarely do it in the open.
When they do start such a debate the hardened campaigner Tony Greaves intervenes and ticks them off and pushes them to the private area.
Any Lib Dem blogger that says anything against Ming etc is ostracised or kicked out the party.
Sleepwalking to disaster.
But that is their business and they are welcome to old Mr Werther and 11% ratings. Long may it continue.
It is prefectly possible for the LibDems to go lower. From 1988-90 they were often in single figures.
Iain, it would be in the 11-15% area were it not for thre 20% in an opinion poll just two weeks ago.
Well the Conservatives have now become so wet (baring the death tax idea) that the L-Ds are not really viable any more. L-Ds have not helped themselves by becoming very little liberal and very much social democrat either.
I've been saying for months that the LibDems will have well under 40 seats whenever Feartie calls it,and possibly under 20.
How can you talk about the Lib-nobodies with Gordo's smoking husk lying about. They are going to irrelevant for rather a long time methinks.
The lib dem vote share is bound to rise as New liebours vote sinks. The Tories won't sadly get all the dissatisfied New Liebour votes... but will get a fair share and a bit more. I expect New liebour to be down to 35% or less and The Conservatives at 43-44%. That's just my gut feeling.
LIb Dems to be 15% or thereabouts
Sadly this is probably temporary Iain. Like the Tory lead in the polls. That being not so sad. But Lib Dems they were forced to admit they had been untruthful, and recant, and promise good behaviour, which was nice. Whether from point of view of a blue or a red Lib Dem local campaigning tends to be extraordinarily dishonest and constantly miserable.
I remember blogging this on 5th July 2007:
"An extremely elderly man in a Savile Row suit, looking like Bill Deedes's older brother, apparently leads the Liberal Democratic Party. Well, for the time being anyway if the rumours are to be believed.
The latest betting for the LibDems to win the next General Election is 150/1 - not much surprise there. But for some reason there are members of his party who think they should change their current leader as this would improve their electoral chances.
I don't know about you but if someone takes this job on they will have to be a bloody superman (sorry, superperson). My advice is stick with Ming - it's steady as you go, LibDems."
My message today to the LibDems that believe this: Nothing has changed. Stick with Ming - he'll lead you the sunlit uplands of obscurity that (some of) you crave.
The rest of you - the Orange Bookers and the others who know that the LibDems will never have a sniff of power - should join David Cameron's Conservative Party so we can destroy this horrible New Labour experiment once and for all and start to build a sensible centre right consensus that includes the liberal traditions of both parties.
This is your time LibDems. Your party colour is yellow but you are not like the coward that is Brown. You can still be green if you join with the blue of the Conservatives - did you see what I did then? - and be part of a dynamic new power for the good of the whole of the United Kingdom.
Come on - you know it makes sense!
How much lower can th Lib Dem vote go ? Lets find out !
But serriously the underlying question is what are the Lib Dems for? Many would find good homes in the Conservative party, including Nick Clegg.
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