Well, if Nick Robinson is right, Gordon Brown has bottled it. All summer he has wanted to call an election but at various stages he has chickened out at the last minute. I was told recently that he wanted to call an election in early September but in the end he decided not to. Oh how he must be regretting that decision. The recent polls, and internal Labour polling in the marginals, has persuaded Brown that calling an election would be too risky. And that is down to one man - David Cameron. No one, least of all Gordon Brown, expected such a dramatic turnaround in the polls. It demonstrated the volatility of the electorate. I always felt that for Brown, things could only get worse and this autumn would be the best time for him to get his own mandate. No one knows what is around the corner, but the economy looks very shaky indeed. The Northern Rock crisis is not over yet.
The last week has been incredibly damaging for Brown. The media has turned against him over the ill-judged trip to Basra and he has proved to be the spinner most of us always knew him to be. His attempt to portray himself as "the change", someone who would conduct a new style of politics has been revealed as a sham.
Make no mistake, David Cameron has got out of jail free. He has achieved the greatest political escape in modern history. Few of us would have been confident of a Tory victory, and Brown's decision has given the Party a chance to fight another day.
Brown will give all sorts of excuses for not calling the election - state of the elctoral register, blue tongue, foot and mouth, boundaries in Northern Ireland not ready, not in the national interest, blah, blah, blah, but no one will believe a word of it.
Because everyone really knows that the reason Gordon Brown hasn't called an election is because he couldn't be confident of winning it.
UPDATE: Brown's people are already spinning against Douglas Alexander, according to Adam Boulton, alleging that it's all his fault. Brown is said to be recording an interview with Andrew Marr, his favourite interviewer. Marr must go for his throat. Rarely has a Prime Minister been so humiliated.
8 comments:
Just seen this on The News of The World's website:
MARGINALS POLL REVEALS...
HUNG PARLIAMENT
GORDON Brown will LOSE his majority and be forced to battle for control of a hung parliament if he decides to call a snap General Election according to an exclusive poll in tomorrow's News of the World.
The ICM poll of the key marginal constituencies that will decide whether he stays in power reveals he will lose almost 50 seats.
This is the first poll that delves deep into these key seats – and it shows the Conservatives are poised to make sweeping gains – unseating 49 Labour MPs including Home Secretary Jacqui Smith and a host of other Ministers.
The poll gives the Conservatives a 6% lead over Labour in the marginals (44% versus 38%) – a substantially higher figure than recent national polls, which showed the Tories level or close behind.
That result would give Labour approximately 306 seats, with the Conservatives behind on 246. It is not possible to predict how the other parties would stand.
The poll confirms that turn-out would be a problem for Labour. When asked, 59% of Labour voters said they were certain to vote, compared to 71% of Conservatives.
The poll has been taken in the same seats being studied by Prime Minister Gordon Brown as he struggles to decide whether to call an election this week.
Pollsters ICM quizzed voters in the 83 key battlegrounds where Labour and the Tories are fighting most closely for control AFTER David Cameron's closing speech at the Tory conference in Blackpool.
WHY THIS POLL MATTERS:
The General Election will be won or lost in the marginal seats, where MPs cling on to power with slim majorities.
Interviewing was spread across the 49 most marginal constituencies which are notionally held by Labour with the Conservatives in second place, and the 34 most marginal Conservative held constituencies where Labour are in second place. All these marginals require a swing or 4% or less to fall to the other party.
ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1026 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 2-5th October 2007. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
Douglas Alexander is a walking disaster. AS Scottish Secretary he was in charge of the Scottish Elections and what a mess his department mde of it. He let this election spin go out of control and it will come back to haunt Labour.
Oh what fun.
"Andrew Marr, his favourite interviewer" <- I half expected the answer to that question to be Mariella Frostrup, given his chat with her on Sky Arts during the Hay Festival and the Q&A thing at the conference.
Iain...I have this vivid image in my mind of that great scene at the end of The Battle of Britain where the massed German troops lining the Channel throw their life jackets into a big pile and start the big march home ......
If Browns people are already starting the Blame game then David Cameron has got 2 tactical defeats for the price of one. Because voters dont vote for divided party's. The high command should observe for a little and see what opportunities there are for reopening Blairite/Brownite wounds etc. If Brown is already starting infighting the election when he does have the courage to call it will be game on.
Following Clive B. The Germans long march was to Stalingrad not home. An even happier metaphore?
Marr go for Brown's throat? Do you mean cover it with kisses?
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