Saturday, February 19, 2005

Today

Spend a very bracing morning in Horning & Barton Turf. Never seen weather like it. We're in the final stages of the St Benet Ward by-election. Had a quick chat with the LibDem candidate Barbara McGoun (who is Norman Lamb's secretary) who was in her very nifty SmartCar. We've had the usual LibDem by-election tactics, dodgy graphs etc but I suspect Barbara rather disapproves of this. Anyway, polling day is on Tuesday so we'll see what happens. Our candidate has been superb, I have to say, and everyone has put in a lot of effort. I'm quietly confident!

Just off to a do in Cromer...

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

Well lets not forget: 14% Lib Dem vote at the last election in that seat. Are you expecting a swing to the Tories Iain? It will be interesting!

Anyway, I don't support you- but good luck anyway.

Anonymous said...

Iain
Seems like you've taken to Barbara, the Lib Dem Candidate, you sly old devil you! Is there a Ukip candidate?
Robb

Iain Dale said...

No there isn't a UKIP candidate. Con/Lib/Lab.

I doubt whether the Libs can do as badly aS 14%. The result is complicated by the fact that in 2003 there was an Independent (who is now standing for us) and no Labour Candidate. So calculating swings is going to mean steam coming out of calculators.

Anonymous said...

expect the lib dem posters to be popping open the champagne if the lib dem support goes up, and trumpeting their coming triumph in may, even if the tories win the by election, which they will.

Anonymous said...

Iain
Sorry mate, but that does seem to be a very defeatist line that you are taking - like you were expecting not to win or hold the Conservative share of the vote? I didn't realise that the Conservative Candidate was the previous Independent in the election. So, by simple maths, the total of his votes and the Conservative votes, in the last election came to a massive percentage of the total given that the Labour vote was non-existent. The only thing that is diffrent this time is that you are leading the battle for the Conservatives [from Fakenham Races]and there is a labour candidate? No wonder you are quietly confident - you must be looking for about an 84% share of the vote. It all makes sense now - trotting off to Fakengham races without a worry, I mean. Good on you mate.
Robb

Neil said...

Iain - you say you expect a 'good' result, but you still haven't told us exactly what you think will constitute a good result for your party in this by-election. Unless you do, readers are likely to judge that you are playing fast and loose. Please could you tell us what you think will constitute a 'good' result, i.e. one that sees you on course to victory in May, quantified in tersm of actual votes won, percentage share, or both.

Iain Dale said...

A good result is a win. End of story.

Anonymous said...

Come on Iain it's NOT the end of the story - don't disappoint me now - a lot of Conservatives are also interested.....
This guy Neil has asked you a straight question - show him the respect of giving him a straight answer. Don't sit on the fence. In this hithertoo rock solid Conservative seat, where I understand the Lib Dems finished third with just 14% last time and Conservatives have the previously "independent" candidate who finished second standing this time, you must be expecting at least 70% of the vote and a majority of some 500 to 600. Surely anything less than that will be abject failure? Incidentally, the first question that I asked you was on similar lines and you failed to answer me. Have the courage of your convictions and let the world know what you truly believe and why. I'll be honest with you: unless the Conservative Candidate wins with a majority of at least 400 You had better start thinking about taking out insurance to save your deposit in May. I'm not being nasty; I genuinely would like to know what you really believe. I mean you must be ultra confident having given priority to a day at Fakenham races last weekend.
Robb

Iain Dale said...

Robb, you are becoming obsessed. Take a cold towel, put it on your forehead and lie down.

Anonymous said...

Iain
Attacking me personally is not the answer. Where is your credibility as a Parliamentary candidate if you cannot even commit youself to a prediction of a result in a what should be rock solid Conservative ward [the safest Conservative ward in the whole constituency.] Don't mind me mentioning it, but instead of spending a day at the races shouldn't you be a teeny weeny bit obsessed about the result in this ward? So is the majority going to be 500+ or not or, come Tuesday night, will you be lying down with a cold towel over your forehead?
Robb

Iain Dale said...

Firstly I have not attacked you personally. If you remember it is you who have done that - smarmy git I think was the phrase you used, among others.
Secondly, I have predicted the result, a Tory win.
Thirdly, no I don't expect a majority of 500 plus (I see you have upped this from 400) seeing as the electorate is only 1500 and there is likely to be a 50% turnout.
By the way, where do you live?

Anonymous said...

Iain
Smarmy git was an expression first used by one of your admirers. It was one of the two descriptions that he applied to your poster. He asked which one you were. He was obviously confused so I tried to help him out. If it offended you I do apologise. You are propbably not a smarmy git.
Why do you want to know where I live? You see, that question is a bit sensitive. When I spent some time in Northern Ireland doing a bit of a job, people frequently asked where I lived and what school I went to. They had their reasons for asking, so why do you want to know?
Robb

Iain Dale said...

Purely innocent question! Just wondering in which part of the constituency you live. I wasn't asking for your address. Although on second thoughts, I could then send the boys round... JOKE

Anonymous said...

robb,
I too would like to know where you are from. I guess you are nowhere near to Norfolk North. You seem to ask a lot of questions of other posters but clam up when asked anything about yourself.

For YOUR record in response to your question on a previous thread I am not related to Iain or Mr Howard. I post under the name carlisle cookiemonster beccause it gives a guide as to my location. If I posted under my real name of jame sthen my posts might get confused with someone else. I do not live in this area (infact my knowledge of Norfolk starts with Bernard Matthews and ends with the sainted Delia). I follow Iain's Blog because I am a Conservative Party member and first got to hear of Iain through buying Gillian Sheperd's book through his retail operation (It's a great, pragmatic read and restored my faith in the Conservatives). In reading Iain's blog I find a little bit of common sense.
Now I've told you about me. What about you. Where do you live? what got you interested in the blog? Are you related to anyone and would it matter if you were.

If you don't like Iain and think he shouldn't be elected (and it's a free world- fell free to admit it), why don't you offer you time to the Libdems so that you can help them deliver leaflets and get their vote out, that would be a better use of your time, than hovering over the boards responding in a sarcastic way to anything anyone types. I think we can all agree that the election of a new MP for this seat will not be decided by internet sites.
Thank you
*rant over -picks up toys, puts them back in pram*
No ill-will meant just needed to get it off my chest.

carlislecookiemonster

Anonymous said...

Hi Carlisle - I like your style - You've got class! You should be ghosting this Blog for Iain! Does it matter where I come from? How are Carlisle United getting on these days. I've always had a soft spot for them ever since they were in the Premiership a few years back. Later they were the great escape artists weren't they? Didn't their goalkeeper score a last minute goal in the last game of the season to keep them in the league? The stuff of fantasy - it must have made Carlisle people very proud? Do you have a Ukip candidate in Carlisle? There is one in North Norfolk - a Mr Agnew. Gillian Shepherd has been a very good MP I think. Have you read Betty Boothroyd's biography that's very interesting. I went to see an old Aunty of mine in Bermondsey last week. She's 86 and badly crippled with arthritis and can't get out. She relies on a kindly neighbour for food shopping. Social service have said that she will have to wait to be assessed for help. What a society we live in! I am a longish distance away but as her nearest relative I worry about her. You know what Carlisle you should become seriously involved in politics, not for yourself, but for the sake of people like my Aunty. You sound like a good person.
regards
Robb

Lady Finchley said...

Carlisle-

Hear Hear!!

P.S. Robb, if I didn't know that you were a huge tease I'd think you quite unhinged! However, I know a tease when I see one.

Neil said...

Iain - so even a narrow win over the Lib Dems in a seat they won 14% in last time is a good result for the Conservatives and sets you on course for victory? Happy to accept that is your view, although I would be disappointed not to hold it with a large majority if I was in your position. Others can judge your judgement on this one. Just to be 100% - losing this seat would be a bad result and an indication that you are not set for victory in May?