Last time the European elections were held in 1999 the turnout in North Norfolk was 32%. The result was:-
Conservative 11,111 (43%)
Labour 5,649 (22%)
LibDem 3,706 (15%)
UKIP 2,132 (8%)
This time we have the Martin Bell factor to contend with. Despite the EDP's attempts to portray him as some sort of Messiah figure his campaign has failed to catch light, but he will no doubt attract the votes of the disaffected. The electorate has increased a little since 1999 to about 82,000. The LibDems can hardly fail to do better than their miserable 15% of the vote last time, although they have fought a curiously lacklustre campaign in North Norfolk. Even their usual barage of posters has failed to materialise. Their literature has been significantly lower quality than usual and I haven't seen a single LibDem canvasser on the streets - and neither has the electorate from what I can gather. Labour has been equally anonymous and I expect their vote to decline sharply. I worry that the BNP will do well. Last time they only got 300 votes - 1% of the vote. UKIP will also do better and attract votes from across the political spectrum. If they do well, expect Kilroy Silk to attempt a putsch. But of course the only person left with a grin on his face if UKIP do well is Tony Blair. Just remember that if you're at all tempted to vote for them!