Sunday, June 13, 2004
It's a dangerous game predicting elections results, but I got the 1992 results spot on. I predicted a Tory victory of 21 and put £20 at 80 to 1 on that outcome. However, the friend I asked to put the bet on for me forgot. £1600 down the swanee... My prediction for this evening is that in the Eastern Regio the Conservatives will get 3 seats, UKIP 2, LibDem 1 and Labour 1. However, Labour may not get any at all. Apart from the size of the UKIP vote the other story will be the failure of the LibDems to make any headway at all. Indeed, I think their share of the vote might possibly be eclipsed by UKIP. In addition, people should analyse where UKIP's vote has come from. My feeling is that is has come from right across the political spectrum, not just from the Conservatives. At 9 o'clock we'll see if I was right.