Ten Reasons McCain Will Pick Romney as VP

1. He is not a Senator.
2. He is a governor and someone who has actually led something - Massachussets and the Winter Olympics
3. He knows the economics better than McCain and that’s what people are talking about.
4. He will be a good counter to Biden on the attack front.
5. He has deep ties to Michigan via his dad. No Michigan no McCain Presidency.
6. He is younger and energetic but not too young that it makes McCain look older than he is.
7. He will energise the Conservative base.
8. He is a proven money raiser.
9. He is an attack dog and can go after Obama leaving McCain to take the high road.
10. Romney knows how to use the internet.

Now, don't get me wrong. Romney is everything I hate about a politician. He's an identikit candidate, he knows which buttons to press and when to press them. Back in January I wrote:

I would never support Romney in a month of Sundays, Mondays or Tuesdays. His policy platform seems to change by the minute and is too much of an identikit candidate for my liking. If the West Wing were casting for an actor to play the American President he'd be perfect. But there's something about him that just doesn't ring true.So on the Republican side I will support John McCain, albeit incredibly reluctantly. I just don't see the ideas, the optimism, the can-do attitude that I think such a candidate needs. But I'll take him over Romney.

But I still think McCain will go for Romney. My second bet is Charlie Crist, governor of Florida - although whether he has got through the vetting process is a matter for conjecture.

Mitt Romney Has the 'Big Mo'

What better way to spend half an hour waiting for a plane back to London than share my thoughts on the state of the 2008 Republican presidential race with you following my week in Washington DC.

Let me say from the outset that Rudy Guiliani was - and is - my preferred candidate on the Republican side. However, his speech at CPAC yesterday, which I witnessed, was not the speech of a serious presidential candidate. It was a rehash of a speech given to business audiences about how to turn round failing organisations - in his case New York City. It had its moments but in general was too wooden, too conversational and too centred on the past rather than offering a vision for the future.

It also contained very little for the very conservative audience. They were seeking reassurance on their litmus test issues if gun control, what they call 'traditional marriage' and abortion. Reassurance came there none. Now from my point of view that was a good thing, but he needed to find someway of walking a socially conservative tightrope but failed to do so. He made a vague reference to the 80 per cent of things which united him and them, but that was about it. A profoundly disappointing performance from the front runner.

If organisation was anything to go by Governor Mitt Romney and Senator Sam Brownback would be the two frontrunners. They blitzed CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) with their stickers and posters leaving the others in their wake. John McCain not only did not speak but didn't even have a stand any supporters there at all. Giuliani had no campaign organisation there either - his supporters had to draw their own posters themselves.

Mitt Romney was the candidate to emerge from the event with the 'Big Mo'. His speech hit all the buttons, he seems to be able to attract support from all parts of the Republican Party and he seems to be pushing the same message of hope and optimism that Barack Obama is espousing on the Democratic side. Just as important, Romney looks the part, and he has a good record in Massachussetts. He was also the candidate who attracted some negative advertising at CPAC, partly in the form of Flip Romney, a flip flopping dolphin! Romney has a, shall we say, an inconsistent record on many social issues. I left CPAC wanting to know more about Mr Romney. He could be a dark horse worth watching.

Senator Sam Brownback needs to change his name. No one has won the presidency with a surname of more than seven letters since Eisenhower, and he campaigned as Ike. It's a weird thing in this race that there are so many people with immigrant surnames. Ironically the bizarrely named Tommy Tankredo - an immigrant name if there ever was one - is campaigning on a single issue anti immigration platform. Can you imagine a President Tankredo? No, me neither.

All the candidates are trying to hitch themselves to the coattails of Ronald Reagan. Giuliani mentioned him at least 20 times in his speech and Brownback's literature is littered with references to him being a 'Reagan Conservative'. This is fine as far as it goes, but they really do need to start articulating their own visions.

My conclusions? McCain's bungled campaign announcement on Letterman left him looking old and fighting a different race to the rest. Giuliani needs to reassure the right if he is to win and Romney needs to develop a policy platform which will put the flip-flopping to rest.

But Mitt Romney emerged from CPAC as the candidate to watch.

Thursday in Washington

The Conservative Political Action Conference, which I am attending in Washington, shows the very best and the awful worst of the American right. I had never attended one of these before and wasn't sure what to expect. Part of me expected to be appalled by a predominance of so-called "religious right" groups. I have been pleasantly surprised. Apart from a twenty two year olf who confidently asserted that he would pray for my redemption and that he had the self discipline to banish lustful thoughts from his mind, I haven't really seen any evidence of what I feared. In fact, quite the reverse.

However, having gone round the conference centre this afternoon asking people who they would like to see as the Republican candidate in 2008 it was clear that Giuliani has a lot to do to appease the social conservatives. One lady told me she wouldn't vote for Giuliani because he wanted to take away her gun. I gently pointed out he was a proven leader and had a great record on crime in New York, but she wasn't going to be persuaded. Despite that, I detected Giuliani had a narrow lead here.

Mitt Romney was the other favourite. He seems to be the only one who can reach across the whole Republican Party and find allies on all wings. Perhaps it's his tendency to flip-flop on social issues which is helping him. Curious but true. The other curious thing about Romney is that none of his campaign volunteers here were willing to tell me why they supported him. To a man and woman they chanted a mnatra of being told not to speak to the media. A strange way to run a campaign when you instruct your volunteers not to tell you why they think you are great. In the end I ended up interviewing a dressed up dolphin called Flip Romney. Geddit? One of the more surreal experiences of my fledgling interviewing career.

Tonight I went to the Conference Gala banquet at which Vice President Dick Cheney was the star guest, along with former US Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton. Cheney is not an inspiring orator. He doesn't speak, he growls. But he did come up with one good line...

"No nation has ever taxed its way to prosperity."

He made a powerful case for the continuing presence of US troops in Iraq. John Bolton, on the other hand, veered from the sensible to the lunatic. I share his criticism of the UN. He said that the US paid for 22% of the costs of the UN and pointed out that to win a vote in the UN you need 97 votes. If you add the total financial contributions of the bottom 97 UN members you'd find that they contribute 0.3% of its budget. Always nice to spend other people's money, isn't it? He advocated a system of voluntary contributions, which would make the UN more accountable to its members.

But he lost my respect when he appeared to advocate a US intervention in North Korea, designed to bring about the reunification of North and South Korea. He also made clear his view that the US should prepare to use military action against Iran. I would certainly not rule that out, but he seemed to positively salivate at the thought. I suppose the concept of 'military overstretch' is not one that he has conjured with too much. He also criticised America's European allies - two words which he almost spat out - and said that if they didn't like what America was doing "it was too damned bad".

It is safe to say that John Bolton is not my favourite American politician.

Tomorrow there will be speeches from Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. Interestingly Giuliani and McCain (despite his announcing his candidacy on Letterman last night) have no campaign presence here at all. Either they think the people here will never vote for them or it is a sign of a lack of organisation. Either way, they cannot afford to ignore the acitivists at this conference. It'll be interesting to see how Giuliani is received tomorrow.

UPDATE: A rather different take on John Bolton's speech can be seen HERE from my 18 Doughty Street colleague Shane Greer. Never let it be said that we sing from the same hymn sheet!