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Friday, December 21, 2007
Telegraph Column: Nick Clegg's Challenges
In my Telegraph column today I turn my attention to the dilemmas facing young Mr Clegg...
"Clegg's main problem is that 40 per cent of the people who voted Lib Dem at the last election have deserted the party - and headed straight for the Conservatives."
They haven't. There hasn't been an election. Extrapolating from the opinion polls like this is dangerous. At the last few General Elections there has been spohisticated tactical voting - where the Lib Dems are seen to have a realistic chance of winning a seat they do far better than their national vote (= Poll ratings). At the next election I would be surprised if the LibDems lose more than a few seats to the Tories and would expect them, more than to make up these losses by gains from Labour.
paddy briggs lives in the wonderful world of OZ. Does he wear the red slippers as well?
I mean, lets be serious. Calamity Clegg will prove to be an electoral disaster for the Lib Dems. He doen't know what party he leads, He constantly talks about being Liberal. There is still a very active Liberal Party. I maintain that most people, especially the elderly in the South West, genuinely believe that they are voting Liberal and not LibDem! There IS a difference. Clegg has not realised that yet!
Paddy Briggs will now tell us that the opinion polls show that they must now prepare for government.
You're assuming that Nick Clegg is primarily concerned about what happens to the Liberal Democrats at the next election.
You forget that he is a eurofanatic, and he may see their MPs as expendable, no more than useful pawns which can be sacrificed once they've served their purpose - which at the present juncture is to make sure that we have the resurrected EU Constitution imposed on us without a referendum.
As I understand, as the European Union (Amendment) Bill goes through its stages in both Houses of Parliament, the Tories will table at least one amendment requiring that we have the promised referendum before the Bill can come into force.
As things stand now, the 63 Lib Dem MPs will vote against that amendment, just as their MSPs voted en masse against the motion calling for a referendum which was passed in the Scottish Parliament earlier this week.
For those crucial votes, the effect of the Lib Dems reneging on their manifesto promise would be to treble Gordon Brown's notional majority from about 66 to about 189, completely outweighing any conceivable Labour rebellion.
Once they've stopped us having a referendum, and helped the EU to impose its Constitution, it won't matter much to either Clegg or the EU whether the electorate take their revenge in a few years time.
In any case, the EU will look after its own, and there always jobs to be handed out to those who have shown that they deserve them.
"Clegg's main problem is that 40 per cent of the people who voted Lib Dem at the last election have deserted the party - and headed straight for the Conservatives."
ReplyDeleteThey haven't. There hasn't been an election. Extrapolating from the opinion polls like this is dangerous. At the last few General Elections there has been spohisticated tactical voting - where the Lib Dems are seen to have a realistic chance of winning a seat they do far better than their national vote (= Poll ratings). At the next election I would be surprised if the LibDems lose more than a few seats to the Tories and would expect them, more than to make up these losses by gains from Labour.
Not quite the right place for this, but I thought your readers might enjoy this....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.scroogeyourself.com/?id=1640417737
Of course with Gordon there will no happy ending....
Clegg's only got two choices - shape up or ship out. We shall see.
ReplyDeletepaddy briggs lives in the wonderful world of OZ. Does he wear the red slippers as well?
ReplyDeleteI mean, lets be serious. Calamity Clegg will prove to be an electoral disaster for the Lib Dems. He doen't know what party he leads, He constantly talks about being Liberal. There is still a very active Liberal Party. I maintain that most people, especially the elderly in the South West, genuinely believe that they are voting Liberal and not LibDem! There IS a difference. Clegg has not realised that yet!
Paddy Briggs will now tell us that the opinion polls show that they must now prepare for government.
You're assuming that Nick Clegg is primarily concerned about what happens to the Liberal Democrats at the next election.
ReplyDeleteYou forget that he is a eurofanatic, and he may see their MPs as expendable, no more than useful pawns which can be sacrificed once they've served their purpose - which at the present juncture is to make sure that we have the resurrected EU Constitution imposed on us without a referendum.
As I understand, as the European Union (Amendment) Bill goes through its stages in both Houses of Parliament, the Tories will table at least one amendment requiring that we have the promised referendum before the Bill can come into force.
As things stand now, the 63 Lib Dem MPs will vote against that amendment, just as their MSPs voted en masse against the motion calling for a referendum which was passed in the Scottish Parliament earlier this week.
For those crucial votes, the effect of the Lib Dems reneging on their manifesto promise would be to treble Gordon Brown's notional majority from about 66 to about 189, completely outweighing any conceivable Labour rebellion.
Once they've stopped us having a referendum, and helped the EU to impose its Constitution, it won't matter much to either Clegg or the EU whether the electorate take their revenge in a few years time.
In any case, the EU will look after its own, and there always jobs to be handed out to those who have shown that they deserve them.
But what about the problems of young Dave?
ReplyDelete