I've just been flicking through my blogposts for December 2006 and came across THIS one where I made my predictions for 2007. I was astonished to find that I had got 7 out of 10 (virtually) bang on the money!
1. More than one person will face charges in the Cash for Peerages Inquiry WRONG
2. Sir Ming Campbell will not be leader of the LibDems by the end of the year RIGHT
3. Ed Vaizey, Jeremy Hunt and Nick Herbert will be promoted to the Shadow Cabinet RIGHT (apart from Ed)
4. The Conservative Party 'A' List will be junked, having served its purpose RIGHT
5. The SNP become the largest Party in Scotland after the May elections but cannot form a coalition RIGHT
6. A Labour MP and a LibDem MP defect to the Conservatives WRONG
7. John Hutton challenges Gordon Brown for the Labour leadership after John Reid wimps out WRONG
8. In one of his first acts as PM Brown announces timetable for troop withdrawal from Iraq RIGHT
9. Depending on the opinion poll bounce from that decision and his honeymoon period, Brown will consider calling a General Election within six months of becoming Prime Minister RIGHT
10. West Ham will not get relegated RIGHT
I suppose you could deduct half a point for getting Ed Vaizey wrong if you want to be churlish. I will publish my predictions for 2008 next week.
""The Conservative Party 'A' List will be junked, having served its purpose RIGHT""
ReplyDeleteWRONG.
It's very much in operation. Who do you think could apply for Maidstone and the Weald? It was NOT open to the general list, ergo there's still an A list.
So it's 6/10. Sorry
You're being generous to yourself by awarding a point for number 3.
ReplyDeleteI agree that this is a matter for debate, but the fact is that Associations can now choose not to select from the A LIst and go for the full list. That is a significant change. If Associations choose to go for the A List I guess that's up to them. I have to say that if I were an Association Chairman I would not do so. The A List is no longer anything of the sort.
ReplyDeleteOK, two thirds of a point then.
ReplyDeleteI see the ICM/Guardian poll analysis for regional breakdowns has the SNP 3% ahead of Labour - 39% to 36%.
ReplyDeleteAlso has the Conservatives up 3% since the summer.
If the Tory share is over 15% then it looks like the LibDems are becoming an irrelevance in Scottish politics.
The A list was always deeply, deeply undemocratic and served the electorate badly. I can't help feeling it was illegal.
ReplyDeleteDavid Cameron's control freakery rivals his idol, Tony's. Since when was social engineering part of the electoral process of a democracy? It demeaned the whole process.
Iain, you were right in a way about Ed Vaizey - apparently the rumour is that Ed Vaizey could have been in the shadow cabinet but he declined since he felt he wasn't yet 'ready'. So, in a way, you were right.
ReplyDeletePS> Ed Vaizey trys to 'blog' but he needs some assistance! LoL He really is not very good at it. His last post was December 8th...shocking.
Too bad you didn't predict the death of Webcameron in 2007!! It's history now. No more interaction from DC - no more forum. It's rubbish now and DC didn't even have the good grace to say good-bye or thank you to his internet/blogging community.
Ed Vaizey TRIES to 'blog' too.
ReplyDelete:)
love the lack of an edit button...
Sorry, don't agree about the idea of an A list, just a pity about its administration.
ReplyDeleteThere are too many white, middle-class male barristers/financiers applying for candidature.
There are too many applicants who simply do not understand how much work and sacrifice is entailed, both in campaigning and in being a good MP.
There are too many Associations still who pick a candidate the activists/wrinklies think is 'nice' rather than assessing their abilities and their doorstep potential.
There are too many candidates who get on the list without being subjected to a really tough, in-depth session with no-nonsense, experienced interviewers.
I speak from years of first-hand knowledge, so must post this time anonymously, and hope that as it's Christmas, almost no-one is reading this!
Obviously West Ham cheated and should have been relegated.
ReplyDeleteAnd number 3 also.
Making it hit and miss at 50:50.
Though the SNP couldn't put forward a coalition they have taken power. I read our prediction, possibly wrongly, as believing that though the SNP would be the biggest party the unionnist parties would be the ones to stitch a coalition together. What we now have is effectively an understanding with the Tories & both Labour & LudDims in such disarray that they wouldn't know what to do if given the chance at power.
ReplyDelete