Filth, Filth and more Filth from the BBC

There, that headline got your attention, didn't it?

On Bank Holiday Monday, BBC Parliament is broadcasting a "Permissive Night" hosted by Joan Bakewell. She will lead a discussion on the impact of all the social legislation of the mid sixties which legalized abortion, consenting homosexual relations for men over 21 and freed up the divorce laws. Permissive Night will start at 6pm on BBC Parliament and run through to midnight, and will include many memorable programmes from the BBC archives

Leading up to an edition of Late Night Line Up, Joan will introduce original editions of Panorama-(presented by Richard Dimbleby) first shown on the evening when the Commons was debating the abolition of hanging ( it was successfully abolished for an initial trial period of five years), Man Alive documentaries from 1967 on male and female homosexuality ( the one on lesbians presented by Angela Huth), A Whickers World on divorce illustrating the case of author Elizabeth Jane Howard and naturalist Peter Scott. There will also be original editions of Late Night Line Up, and other original programmes dealing with issues like abortion, race relations and theatre liberalisation.

There's also an original edition of the BBC's Talkback programme presented by David Coleman ( later rather better known for his football commentaries) where a panel of viewers question David Dimbleby on his Panorama programme on censorship. Watch out for one young member of the panel, appearing long before we all got to know him, a young clerk from (in his words) "swinging Sheffield"….one David Blunkett.

I can't wait.

Hoby: Return of the Class War

click on image to enlarge. By Hoby.

The Best Book on the Market

Eamonn Butler of the Adam Smith Institute has a really good book out at the moment, modestly called THE BEST BOOK ON THE MARKET. The emphasis is on the last three words, as it is a book which extolls the merits of a free market. It's accessibly written and quite entertaining. The blurb says...

The free market makes the world go around. Maybe it's time we all tried to understand it a little better. Luckily Eamonn Butler is the ideal teacher to get us all up to speed. Markets are everywhere. But how many of us understand how they work, and why? What does a 'free market' really mean? Do free markets actually exist? Should we have more or less of them? Most of all - do we really need to know all this? The answer is: Yes we do. This book makes economics simple so that even politicians can understand it. If any mention of free markets sends your mind screaming back to your musty old school economics textbook, think again. "The Best Book on the Market" will keep you gripped, intrigued and well informed. Abandoning complicated mumbo-jumbo, Eamonn Butler, Director of the UK's leading free market think-tank, demystifies the world of markets, competition, monopolies and cartels, prices and overspills.Using examples from our everyday lives, Dr Butler explains how the markets we have, and the many more we need, can work to create a richer, freer and more peaceful world. This book shows readers how to stop worrying and love the free economy.

In a way it's amazing he got it published as publishers generally turn their noses up at anything which faintly reeks of being right wing, so well done to Capstone. You can buy it HERE.

Why Labour Are Stuck with Gordon

Normally, I agree with Matthew Parris's view of the world, but his article in this morning's Times is, I believe, off beam. He argues that Labour's only hope of winning the next election is for Gordon Brown to either step aside voluntarily or be ditched. If he voluntarily stepped aside in the next few weeks and a new leader had time to establish themselves, you can make a coherent argument for them being able to turn around Labour fortunes, except for one thing. It is inconceivable that the British public, let alone the press, would accept a second unelected Prime Minister within a year.

There is also no clear frontrunner to take over. The only two people I can see actually having a chance of success would either not run or not win - and I'm talking about Alan Johnson and Hilary Benn.

In the second scenario, where Gordon Brown is ditched, the mess which would be created along the way would render the party unelectable afterwards - no matter who emerged. And with the same electoral college system which allowed Harriet Harman to win the Deputy Leadership, you have to wonder just who might emerge from that process.

Labour's best chance is to stick with Brown in the hope that he will be able to pull a rabbit out of the bag. But with his luck, any such rabbit would probably be struck down with myxomatosis.

Graphic by Theo Spark.

For Addicts of STRAIGHT TALK

Fans of Andrew Neil's STRAIGHT TALK programme will be delighted to learn that the programme has a new website with loads of the best interviews now available for download on the BBC iPlayer. This is now about the only proper interview programme on TV now and it deserves a wider audience. Go HERE.

Oil Price: Damned Lies and Government Predictions

Take a look at THIS. It's the offical government predictions for the level of oil prices in the years to come. Essentially, it boils down to this...

Central scenario - 2010 – $65/bbl – 2030 - $75/bbl

Low scenario -2010 - $45/bbl – 2030 - $45/bbl

High scenario – 2010 - $85/bbl – 2030 - $105/bbl

High high scenario – 2010 - $107/bbl – 2030 - $150/bbl

It appears to defy all logic. Obviously the impact on government forecasting, pricing for major projects, traffic projections (and road building) etc etc is significant to say the least. With oil at $135 a barrel today, you'd think this document needs radical updating.

Chicken Labour

Isn't it incredible that the Labour spokesman on the BBC by election programme was Chris Bryant and on Any Questions tonight we are treated to the elegant (but bakbench) tones of Dr Tony Wright MP. The BBC will have wanted a Cabinet Minister and been told that none was available. I wonder why that would be, then. I hear the sounds of chickens, not only coming home to roost, but afraid to grace the nation's airwaves to defend their Prime Minister.

Who Should Replace Jenny Scott?

I think today was Jenny Scott's last day on the Politics Show. She's off for a new career as Head of Communications for the Bank of England. The BBC is still considering who to replace her with and, I understand, will be "trying out" various female presenters alongside Andrew Neil over the next few weeks. Jo Cockburn has already had a runout and I understand Five Live's Anita Anand is also in the frame. Shelagh Fogarty, who presented the weekend breakfast show on 5 Live alongside Andrew Neil many moons ago, would also be worth a try, as her sense of humour complements his rather well.

Which other female broadcasters (and they will definitely go for a female) would you like to see given a trial run?

A New Job for Digby Jones: Selling Birmingham

When I was driving to Birmingham last night I realised it was only the sixth time I had ever been to Britain's second city - two of those visits were to Villa Park, one to the Eurovision Song Contest, one was to attend an interview at Aston University and another with David Davis during the Tory leadership contest.

Birmingham just doesn't come across as Britain's second city. It has none of the self confidence of Manchester or Liverpool, and no one singing its praises. I asked a few friends to name me one famous person from Birmingham. Jasper Carrot was the name most mentioned, Deadly Doug Ellis came second, and Meg Mortimer from the late lamented Crossroads Motel even got a mention. Not exactly top notch names.

The event I was speaking at was organised by Harvey Ingram, a Leicester based law firm which has recently opened a new office in Birmingham. They've built up a thriving practice in a very short time and obviously see Birmingham as the place to be. For those of us who live and work in London we just don't notice what is going on in Birmingham in the way that we seem to know what's happening in other cities around Britain. I'm sure I am not alone in thinking that.

I suggested to the audience that they needed a high profile champion to shout about Birmingham's achievements and oppotunities from the rooftops. Maybe they need a proper mayor. Much of the audience (made up of lawyers and business people) seemed to agree. And the name they suggested was Digby Jones.

Lord Jones may well be looking for a new job soon. Birmingham could certainly do worse than invite him to become Birmingham's ambassador to the rest of the country and the world.

Footnote: When I arrived last night I was horrified to discover the dinner was a black tie event. No one had told me. Cue a quick jaunt to the local House of Fraser. Thank God for late night opening!

An Interview with Simon Mayo

I've written before on the blog about the brilliance of Simon Mayo as a broadcaster and interviewer. He won Sony Broadcaster of the Year recently and there's an interview with him in today's Telegraph. Well worth a read, HERE.

This is an Ex By Election Candidate. She Has Ceased to be...

They used to say there is nothing so 'ex' than an 'ex' MP, but that goes doubly for ex by election candidates. Click HERE to see how LibDem candidate Elizabeth Shenton's Wikipedia entry is already 'marked for deletion'. Bless.

Kudos to Liam Fox

I didn't get home last night until about 1.45am so I missed the first hour of the by election programme, but one thing struck me was the performance of Liam Fox. He was superb. This follows another word-perfect interview he did with Andrew Marr a couple of weeks ago. One of my commenters, Trev, puts it like this...

I am no great fan of Liam Fox but he has done well when I have seen him over the last few weeks. Indeed this culminated in an explosion of disgust with the unhappy Labour spokesman on BBC TV last night. He was trying to explain away the pathetic leaflet that Fox had produced and I think Fox threw out something like 'oh shut up' in exasperation. (maybe you can find the clip - about 1.30am).

I found it hilarious that Labour put up Chris Bryant on the BBC programme. Admittedly, he didn't do badly, but it comes to something when they put up a lowly PPS rather than a senior Minister. The MacAvity syndrome strikes again. I felt very sorry for Lynne Featherstone who made the best out of a bad job for the LibDems - I suppose you could say that about their candidate, Elizabeth Shenton too.

Crewe: What the Blogs are Saying

This image says it all, courtesy of ConservativeHome. Click on it to enlarge.

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ADAM Boulton will be hosting a CoverItLive blog discussion at 12.30pm on the
fallout from Crewe & Nantwich
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1. Guido agrees with me about the disastrous Kevin Maguire strategy.
2. Michael White says it's all over for Brown - without actually saying it.
3. James Forsyth on whether Brown will be dumped.
4. Iain Martin says the result gets Cameron a step closer to Number Ten.
5. LibDem Voice has, er, the result and that's it. But do read the comments...
6. PoliticalBetting.com calls the next election for the Conservatives.
7. Red Box on Labour's new low.
8. Andrew Porter reckons it was Lord Ashcroft wot won it.
9. LabourHome asks: Where do we go from here? I respond: Is it down to the lake I fear...
10. Nick Robinson believes Crewe may be a tipping point.
11. James Graham tries to find some comfort in the result for the LibDems. He struggles.
12. And Kevin Maguire says, well, nothing. Nada. Not a jot. Wonder why. UPDATE: He's now written a blogpost on Brown's Crewe Cut.

Telegraph Column: Hanging on to the C2 Vote

My Telegraph column today looks at how the C2 vote is turning to the Conservatives and why. Here's how it starts...

"I've always voted Labour, but..." is a phrase I hadn't heard from voters on the doorstep for more than 20 years. But these words have been heard increasingly in recent weeks, especially on the doorsteps of Crewe and Nantwich.

When I lost my political virginity as a canvasser in the early 1980s, I heard it a lot, mostly from those living in council houses which Margaret Thatcher had enabled them to buy. Lifelong Labour supporters were realising that the Tories were giving them a chance to fulfil their aspirations.

Come 1997, Tony Blair appeared to be doing the same and so the same large group of voters - often referred to as C2s by sociologists - transferred their affections to him.

The fact that the Tories are now enjoying a 15 to 20 point lead in the opinion polls suggests that the C2s are returning to them in droves. If they weren't, it would be more or less impossible for David Cameron to attain the 43-45 per cent support that he now enjoys.

That's the good news. But where there is good news, a few clouds of bad are never far away.

The reasons for the shift of so-called Essex Man's and Worcester Woman's affections seem to reflect a growing anti-Labour feeling rather than a positive enthusiasm for the Tories. Does this matter? Well, yes: this support can evaporate just as soon as it arrived. The electorate is volatile and less tribal - and will transfer its affections at the drop of a hat.

The lesson for the Tories is that once you have attracted extra support, you must fight hard to retain it.

The boost in party fortunes is at least 80 per cent due to the lamentable performance of the Prime Minister and his government. What Mr Cameron needs to do over the next six months is fight to the political death to entrench the support of the C2s.

His speech earlier this week on "good housekeeping" and lower taxes sounded like a first salvo in the ground war.

His words reflected the anger out there over the rising cost of living, rising taxation and government waste. He used pseudo-Thatcherite language about "living within your means" to address voters directly who didn't realise he spoke their kind of language.

Read the rest of the article HERE.

It Was Maguire Wot Won It

Kevin Maguire's Mirror column is full of references to Tory Toffs. His blogposts rarely get posted without a dig at David Cameron's education or background. It was this kind of class war campaign which Labour adopted in Crewe & Nantwich and led them to a stunning defeat. It was entirely based on Maguire's schoolboy class based attacks. Well done, Kevin. We salute you.

Congratulations to Edward Timpson MP

All I can say is, wow. A majority of 7,860 on a 17.6% swing is an astonishing result, far ahead of what Edward Timpson or his campaign team could have dreamt of. Well done to all those who went to Crewe & Nantwich and gave him such tremendous support. Well done to the CCHQ campaign team who ran such a fantastic campaign too.

A new dawn has broken, has it not?

Your Crewe & Nantwich Predictions

Just got back from Birmingham. Anyway, here is how 750 of you predict the Crewe & Nantwich result

LibDem win 1.1%
Labour majority < 1000 4.4%
Labour majority of 1001-2000 1.3%
Labour majority of 2001-3000 0.1%
Labour majority of 3001-4000 0.1%
Labour majority of 4001-5000 0.4%
Conservative majority < 1000 8.8%
Conservative majority of 1001-2000 20.6%
Conservative majority of 2001-3000 21.9%
Conservative majority of 3001-4000 15.9%
Conservative majority of 4001-5000 8.4%
Conservative majority of > 50000 17.5%

Not long to go now.

Off to Birmingham - Open Thread

I'm about to drive to Birmingham to give a speech this evening so I am afraid I shall be 'off air' until after midnight. Please use this as an Open Thread to discuss what the reverberations will be for all three parties from Crewe & Nantwich.

* What would a heavy defeat mean for Gordon Brown?
* What would a vote of under 18% mean for the LibDems?
* Is a victory by one vote enough for David Cameron?
* Will there be any lasting effects for Labour of the 'Toff@ campaign?

See you later.

Your Predictions for Crewe & Nantwich

I'll give a prize of £100 of books and DVDs to anyone who correctly guesses the size (in actual votes - and to the right party!) of the majority in Crewe & Nantwich. Leave your predictions in the comments.

Also, click HERE to take part in the poll to predict the result. We'll see if readers of this blog are better predictors than those who take part in the PoliticsHome daily poll of Westminster villagers.

PMQs Review with James Duddridge & Mark Seddon

A five minute chat from Friction TV with Tory MP James Duddridge and Mark Seddon, former editor of Tribune, and now diplomatic correspondent for Al Jazeera. We talk about yesterday's PMQs and the likely after effects of the Crewe & Nantwich by election.