* Conservative 47%, Labour 25%, LibDems 16%
* 15% say GB is up to the job
* 65% say GB is a liability, up from 25% in June 2007
* 44% say Labour's prospects would improve without GB
* 9% say GB "is in touch with people like me"
* With David Miliband as leader Tory lead increases to 23%
* With Jack Straw as leader Tory lead is 21%
* With Ed Balls as leader the Tory lead is 33%, with Labour behind LibDems in third place
* With Tony Blair as leader the Tory lead would be 9%
It doesn't really get much worse than that, does it? Just as well Labour MPs don't read the Daily Telegraph.
Anthony King's analysis is HERE.
Who are these 15% and 9% respectively? Can't believe anyone still thinks they're ok.
ReplyDeleteJust a reminder that opinion polls when public are asked how they would vote in hypothetical circumstances, the poll result is a very poor predictor of exactly how the public will react when those circumstances actually come to pass.
ReplyDeleteIn any case the difference between the party votes under Gordon Brown, David Miliband and Jack Straw is within the normal sampling error of a poll and therefore there's no statistical significance to the differences.
very interesting as well as terrific news, long may it continue!!!
ReplyDeleteBut what is it with the people of this country thinking Tony Blair is some sort of bloke worth voting for...He was a Liar a prat and pillock!!!!
Bleak reading for the Government indeed. Beats me why anyone would want to take command of a sinking ship by knocking GB from Number 10.
ReplyDeleteI'm running a little poll to see if Brown or Miliband has the public backing:
http://tomjacksononline.blogspot.com/2008/07/gordon-brown-or-david-miliband-you.html
It would be great if you could plug it!
Cheers Iain.
David, On your second point that is fairly obvious.
ReplyDeleteI'd be interested in your assessment of the Brown/Miliband stuff.
What we really need is a 100% lead!
ReplyDeleteLet's start campaigning for Balls!
ReplyDeleteCheck this out, Balls being destroyed by IDS: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHHGDHkUsUY
"Just a reminder that opinion polls when public are asked how they would vote in hypothetical circumstances, the poll result is a very poor predictor of exactly how the public will react when those circumstances actually come to pass."
ReplyDeleteAs Mike Smithson would no doubt point out, Brown's poll ratings match those found when the hypotheticals were done with Brown when Blair is PM.
Why does no-one ask about Hatty Harman being in charge ?
ReplyDeleteIts a close run thing but I think I despise her more than Balls.
Electoral calculus suggests that this would see Hoon, Hutton, Straw, Kelly, Jowell, Darling, Smith and Purnell lose their seats... oh and Clegg and Huhne! Tory majority of 250.
ReplyDeleteFraser Nelson has a compelling article in the Spectator, suggesting that Labour face permanent annihilation.
ReplyDeletePart of the reason for this is the erosion of their voter base. He mentions Scotland of course, but also their lack of money and lack of strength in Local Authorities.
Then the discussion turns to options. He points out, almost in passing, that not many Labour MPs know how to do a proper job. We have already seen their propensity to keep their snouts in the trough. Nelson's theory is that they will hang on for grim death to their seats, avoiding an early election, because they will simply be on the dole after the election. He is erudite; "They are stuck in craven intertia".
Does this feed into the now well-rehearsed "scorched earth" scenario - the idea that Alistair Darling will be instructed to borrow and borrow again in order to give tax breaks and in order to maintain spending levels, leaving the Tories with a whopping bill? Worse still, Harperson would insitute more misandrist dictats. Why not? Why would they care?
Scotland as a whole might be more of an indicator of the fate of Labour than the local difficulty in Glasgow East. (As an Englishman living there, I don't pretend to be an expert, but a bystander).
Before Glasgow East, we saw the implosion of the nutty Trotskyist left and their endless subdivision into break-away subdivisions of the Judean Peoples Front. We also saw the Lib Dems fade into pointlessness after simply refusing to consider a referendum on independence and using that as an excuse to have a strop. They are now seen as baddies after propping up Labour. The Greens and the Conservatives are less hostile to the SNP and for good (but different) reasons. Annabel Goldie also opposes a referendum, but unlike the Lib Dems, she considers the needs of the Scottish people over party politicking, and you know, it will be noted. The Traditional Labour voters in Scotland were just that; anti war, truly socialist and ready to play fair by recognising the role of working people in building the commonwealth of the nation. New Labour is about none of these things. It is about revenge and scapegoating decent working people.
With Labour in meltdown up here, we are looking at just one major straw that will be one of many that brings the whole crappy Labour odyssey to a final end.
Voters tend to not to express such favourable views of politicians as potential leaders when they aren't so well known. A good but low profile politician may achieve a lower perference rating than the incumbent, only to be much more popular once they have the higher profile that comes with being the leader - assuming they prove to be a competent leader.
ReplyDeleteJack Straw has been around a long time and is well known, so his rating is probably about right. David Miliband is still less well known and perhaps would get a boost once he became leader.
I suspect that Miliband's ratings would climb more if he is seen as the man that rid us of Brown, rather than sitting back waiting for someone else to stick the knife in.
Do these figures show whether The Voter is making the connection between the uselessness of Brown as PM now, and the uselessness of his legacy as Chancellor? If so a leadership change will never be enough to rescue New Labour.
ReplyDeleteI'm no fan of Brown & co but christ on a bike if Blair is the most popular current Labour figure in the UK what is wrong with this country?
ReplyDeleteAre people just gurning idiots who would vote for the guy they know even if he routinely shafts them? The electorate is like someone in an abusive relationship, no matter how bad it gets, they keep coming back for more.
Hey lets not get too overexcited
ReplyDeleteAs "man in a shed" said yesterday quoting Napoleon
"Never interupt your enemy when he is making a mistake"
Labour will do it all to themselves. David Cameron and Co please take note !!
another point made by wrinkled weasel quoting Fraser Nelson
"..Labour MPs don't have proper jobs...snouts in the trough..."
If Cameron made an issue of the qualifications/jobs/careers of his MP and
selectees showing the expertise they are bringing to "the party" then other
parties might have to follow. This would possibly get us away from those who are
only there to make money. This might bring some good people forward.
For example I liken Gordon Brown to the current Pope. yes laugh now! But the
current Pope, following The Polish Pope who anybody of any religion would recognize
a very saintly and good man, looks like a career bishop who has got to the top of
the tree and is so pleased about it that he forgot what the job was all about and has nothing to offer.
david boothroyd. 1050pm
ReplyDeleteYes the opinion polls were so wrong about all the local elections! The Crewe By Election and the Scottish By Election very poor predictors in fact. You Gov got it absolutely right on every occasion.
Oh, I forgot the London Mayoral Election, silly me...Yes they were poor predictors then..You Gov got it absolutely right again!!!.
Boothroyd, you do live in a parallel universe. For the sake of sanity - and truth! GO BACK.
Or are you the proof that extra terrestials are amongst us now?
Ward 10 awaits you!
I agree with David Boothroyd's and Martin's points about polls being unreliable when it comes to assessing potential leaders, particularly unknown figures. Though obviously Ed Balls would indeed be awful.
ReplyDeleteGordon Brown's personality flaws are so clear that it is hard to see how replacing him with someone who wasn't thin skinned, paranoid, unable to take criticism, intensely partisan and foul tempered wouldn't improve Labour's fortunes.
Typical "sun isn't yellow - it's green" comments from David Boothroyd.
ReplyDeleteStick with your Guardian and BBC polling to cheer you up a bit. They normally show how wonderful the Dear Leader is and how far ahead they are in the polls.
I think the point is that people have made their mind up about Brown, who is regarded as a figure of ridicule. Blair seems better in contast, but in the cold light of day I think people would remember why they hated him so much before he left the scene.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't put too much credence on the figures for the alternatives, except perhaps to point out that there is no single figure who is clearly in the lead and around whom Labour could unite.
"Are people just gurning idiots"
ReplyDeleteNo but the next Labour Party leader could be.
It took 11 years for most people to realise that the NuLab crew were a bunch of idiots. That Blair was and is a conceited, arrogant ,money grabbing charletain who used a matey approach to keeping people on side. It worked but the damage done is incalculable. Unelected Brown thought to be the greatest chancellor of modern times turns out to have been a fraud. Now we the people of this once great country are paying the price.What an absolute mess. The sooner they are all kicked out the sooner we can start the long process of getting our country and dignity back. Brown - JUST GO
ReplyDeleteIt took 11 years for most people to realise that the NuLab crew were a bunch of idiots. That Blair was and is a conceited, arrogant ,money grabbing charletain who used a matey approach to keeping people on side. It worked but the damage done is incalculable. Unelected Brown thought to be the greatest chancellor of modern times turns out to have been a fraud. Now we the people of this once great country are paying the price.What an absolute mess. The sooner they are all kicked out the sooner we can start the long process of getting our country and dignity back. Brown - JUST GO
ReplyDeleteI switched on Radio 4 this morning at about 9.15 and heard peal after peal of church bells. "Wow", I thought, "Gordoom has resigned". Sadness set in though when I realised it was Antonia Fraser on Desert Island Discs and she'd chosen bells as one of her records.
ReplyDeleteSill bitch, getting people going like that.
HPDL said...
ReplyDelete"Electoral calculus suggests that this would see Hoon, Hutton, Straw, Kelly, Jowell, Darling, Smith and Purnell lose their seats... oh and Clegg and Huhne!"
But the self-delighted Purnell is surely scurrying around trying to find a safe seat? If the worst comes to the worst at least he can fall back on all that money he made through Capital Gains tax avoidance.
HPDL
ReplyDelete'But the self-delighted Purnell is surely scurrying around trying to find a safe seat?'
Safe seat? Where? Glasgow East?
"With Tony Blair as leader the Tory lead would be 9%."
ReplyDeleteOh dear. Clearly there remains some madness in the populace. How quick they forget the engineer of where we are today.
So the problem is not Brown it is the party. Under anybody else (except Blair & I don't think they are serious) they do the same or worse.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDelete"Safe seat? Where? Glasgow East?"
I didn't say he would find one. Hopefully he will be kicked-out at the next election and never again have anything to do with the public sector. Until he is arrested for crimes against the State and People.