The one thing which jumped out at me from the polls this morning was the headline from the BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday. That was that the Tories have a lead of 14% among women voters. One of the main reasons for the Tories' dire performances in the last three electioons has been the failure to attract female voters. According to BPIX the Conservatives lead by 41-27.
Forget the slightly widening Tory lead, this is the stat which will give most cheer to the Tories this morning.
Isn't the risk that some of this represents Baby Bounce and will melt away pretty quickly?
ReplyDeleteThere is too much obsession with "group" stats like this. The diversity within groups like women, men, blacks, whites, asians, straights, gays etc is far greater than the differences between those groups. We'd do well to remember that.
Does that mean therefore, that among men, they're trailing?
ReplyDeleteNot surprised, the wife hates Broon and when Ed and Yvette come on the box she has to physically restrained.
ReplyDeleteCould it be the same reason they switched to Tony Blair?
ReplyDeleteWhen laobour come out of the budget polling 31 and 30, you have to aske whose shoes you would rather be in - Camerons or Browns.
ReplyDeleteI must declare an interest - the thought of standing in Brown's shoes makes me nauseous.
It's a good thing to see. Between women gaining the vote in 1918 and 1992 the Conservatives had higher support among women than men at every single election. The gap only closed in 1997. It's good to see it re-opening.
ReplyDelete@trevorsden
ReplyDeleteQuite agree.To quote the Vinyl Mystic: "I wish that for just one time you could stand inside my shoes...then you'd know what a drag it is to see you..."
Pointless cherry picking the findings of a subsample ( even one as large as this ) on a poll . Whathave been the same splits on other recent polls
ReplyDeleteYougov 37-33 and 34-35 ( the 2nd poll Conservatives polling worse in females than males )
ICM 37-35 ( Comservatives polling worse with females than males )
Oh well back to the drawing board .
Now where is the thread to discuss Cameron's car crash of a performance on PoliticsHome ?
Iain
ReplyDeleteThis is one of the key reasons why Brown will lose the election - there is so much hatred for this man from both men and women.
Women in particular do not like a shyster and conman and they can see through the pathetic grinning facade that Brown presents.
Forget the polls - this evil charlatan is going down big time.
By the way,you will never see Brown in a room full of women - he simply cannot socialise with them and will be kept well away from such an encounter.
Keep calm,keep focused,keep steady - Brown will be washed away on May 6th.
To keep the cheer Iain, best not look at today's YouGov poll then which puts the lead amongst women at only 4% :-)
ReplyDeleteIt's all in the genes.
ReplyDeleteWomen, who must raise children for many years and hold family units together to achieve this, are intrinsically conservative. Men tend to be more risk takers, and are more susceptible to passing ideological fads. It's usually the men who fall for the utopian dreams not the women.
1997 was anomalous due to the Blair effect. A handsome, convincing liar who fooled women and men alike. Brown, along with all his other defects is certainly not handsome or convincing.
All well and good - but how many will actually vote on theday?
ReplyDeleteWomen are far better at picking up body language signals than men. They often know instinctively when someone is lying or dissembling. Brown may be able to deceive most men when he avoids giving an answer or tells a Brownie, but its not so easy with women.
ReplyDeleteThere are also far too many stories about Brown's bullying and macho Forces of Hell for there not to be some truth behind them. Men may applaud the idea that this behaviour means he has 'passion' and is a strong leader. Women don't like it. We have to deal with macho bullies all our lives - and it isn't an attractive trait.
It doesn't matter what he does now, he will not win the women's vote.