Friday, December 19, 2008

Tories Under 30% By End of 2009 Says Labour Journalist (And it's Not Maguire)

I'm beginning to think this week's New Statesman is meant to be funny. Martin Bright, a man who normally has his finger on so many pulses it is postively vibrating seems to have lost his marbles. In his Rising Star category of awards he mentions Purnell, McNulty, Liam Byrne and Tom Watson. But he concludes with this astonishing prediction...
But if the Labour Party is looking for vision in the successor generation, then David Lammy is the man to watch in the new year.

Having been taken in myself and tipped him as a future Labour leader back in 2003 I soon came to regret it. The man has no vision, he is an incompetent Minister and the Baby P episode proves he is not exactly a stellar constituency MP. More importantly, not a single Labour supporting friend of mine thinks he deserves to be in government at all, let alone a Minister of State.

But my cackling laughter is best reserved for Martin Bright's new colleague on the NS, James Macintyre. James makes fourteen predictions, most of which are statements of the bleedin' obvious, but just feast your eyes on this one.
By the end of the year the two main parties will have switched positions in the polls, with the Conservatives heading into 2010 languishing below 30%.

In your dreams sunshine. It's the sort of prediction I would expect Kevin Maguire to make with his tongue firmly stuck in his cheek. MacIntyre, however, is deadly serious, with his tongue stuck somewhere very different (and very Brown).
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13 comments:

  1. rob's uncleDecember 19, 2008 1:44 pm

    Re: 'just feat your eyes on this one.'; I suggest 'feast'.

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  2. AnonymousDecember 19, 2008 1:52 pm

    If the electorate behave like the supine doormats that pass for the press at Browns press conferences then he may be right.

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  3. Me vs Maradona vs ElvisDecember 19, 2008 2:02 pm

    We're not going to be back below 30% for the best part of 10 years.

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  4. kenny murphyDecember 19, 2008 2:03 pm

    I wish!

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  5. Lazy StudentDecember 19, 2008 2:23 pm

    Hope, I suppose, is a blinding force.

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  6. Man in a ShedDecember 19, 2008 2:24 pm

    In truth nobody knows. So much of the electorate haven't seen the destruction of state socialism and debt as now practised by Brown in their adult lives that they may be taken in by the announcements and the "do something" spin.

    But lets be clear the giant pyramid of debt spin and deceit of this Labour government can end only one way. Its just a matter of how long can they run their Ponzi scheme ?

    Here's my prediction - if Labour win the next general election the IMF will have to be called in within the first year.

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  7. Man in a ShedDecember 19, 2008 2:52 pm

    PS This is really spin to try to dampen the Feb election rumour and the damage it will do to a dithering a bottling Gordon Brown.

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  8. nought.point.zeroDecember 19, 2008 3:02 pm

    "Abandoning the ideological commitment to tax cuts remains Cameron's best hope for a Clause Four moment, but he will retreat into tax and spending cuts and neo-Thatcher monetarism."

    What an absolute moron. Cameron needs to expel the militans and abandon tax cuts? How idiotic, Labour were elected in DESPITE of tax rises, not BECAUSE of them. The general public rather like them, they are an election winner in tough times.

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  9. TheBoilingFrogDecember 19, 2008 3:56 pm

    If James Macintyre's right that the Tories will lead into 2010 (Jan 1st 2010), obviously with no election next year 2009, with below 30% in the opinion polls (average) I will personally send the chap a tenner.

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  10. strapworldDecember 19, 2008 5:18 pm

    If the people have to rely on the BBC and Sky news for their information, and, it has to be said, most of the written press. Then, Like trevorsden, I think this journalist could well be right.

    Lets have a Liberal Government. We deserve a change.

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  11. BirdDecember 19, 2008 6:22 pm

    Lammy is lamentable. He's the poor man's Paul Boateng and thats the highest praise I can offer.

    Re Polls:
    I think Labour will take the lead at any time, simply because of the favourable coverage Brown has had in the MSM, particularly the BBC.
    As PM, Brown can announce things and pontificate on things. And Mandelson/Campbell ensures that friendly BBC News editors begin each news bulletin with:
    "Gordon Brown said today..."

    Brown realises though, that if he calls an election, Cameron will be given equal air space. And there's only one winner there.
    Cameron (and Clegg) will demand a TV debate, which would terrify Brown.

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  12. AnonymousDecember 19, 2008 6:33 pm

    Iain, shouldn't you be asking WHY he predicts these polling figures?

    ...there's no smoke without fire...

    What happened to Cameron's chutzpah?

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  13. JimmyDecember 19, 2008 6:37 pm

    It's a lovely thought, but even Major in 97 got more than 30. Just.

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