Saturday, November 22, 2008

Brown Bounce: Well That Didn't Last Long...

From PA...

The Tories are clinging on to their double-digit lead over Labour, according to a poll published tonight. The ICM survey for the Sunday Mirror found the Conservatives still 11 points ahead of Labour - suggesting talk of a 2009 general election may be premature. It put the Conservatives on 42% (down one since last month), Labour on 31% (up one) and the Liberal Democrats on 19% (up one).

It was ridiculous for commentators to interpret the 3% lead in the MORI poll as the turnaround for Brown. One poll. Yes, the Tory lead has fallen since the summer, but ICM, ComRes and YouGov are fairly consistent in showing a lead of 8-13 points. The polling community continues to be suspicious about MORI's methodology.

Tory supporters should not get downcast about the odd poll showing a narrowing lead. I'd happily settle for a ten point lead IN ADVANCE of a recession which will be much longer and deeper than most are predicting. I don't say that with any relish at all.

UPDATE: More HERE from UK Polling Report.

21 comments:

  1. Damn, this will presumably mean no Spring 2009 election. We're stuck with that weirdo until 2010.

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  2. This ICM poll once again reinforces my view that Brown won't make a dash for it in 2009. As I've commented before he's got a good working majority. Why risk a wafer thin majority, a hung parliament or even a clear Tory victory. Imagine trying to govern for 5 years if you had a majority of half a dozen - it would be absolutely crazy.

    Brown is relatively comfortable at the moment but in this televisual age Cameron ought to make mincemeat of him in a 3 week GE campaign. No, 2010 will be the time he will go to the country.

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  3. As much as I would like this lead to be rock solid, I think these numbers remain soft. We need the leadership to push a positive, common sense agenda that addresses how we will tackle the recession. What we have heard to date does not go far enough.

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  4. This poll in his Sunday paper will wipe off the smile from Kevin Maguire's face.
    He was gloating that his Fuhrer Gordo
    has a thousand year regime!

    Cameron and his team should pick just 3 messages, two on economy and one on immigration and hit Gordo week by week in the media and in the PMQs, just to show the the Tories have a consistent message. Gordo keeps on repeating that Cameron changes policies and Lord Sleaze also says that. That must be their plan. Hence hitting them with 3 messages week in and week out should flatten them out..

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  5. I see that history is being rewritten again by Bragger Brown in tomorrow's News of the Screws. In an article, he writes,

    "In Britain we can afford to do more now because of the tough action we have taken over the past 10 years to get our national debt down and ensure inflation has remained under control."

    He reminds me very much of a psychiatric patient who was such an inveterate liar that when caught out, stated that she knew she was telling lies but at the time of telling the lies she believed she was telling the truth. The poor soul caused havoc within her family and has been in an institution for a number of years. Maybe we could have Brown committed in the same way! (Unless, of course some labour troll will advise us exactly what these wonderful "actions" were)

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  6. Yes, but what's the betting the majority of the MSM continue quoting the 3% MORI poll? Fancy a wager?

    Further, we were out doorstepping today and regardless of what the media are trying to represent, the word on the street is not good for Brown or Labour. In an area that's been largely Labour in the last few years, we received a lot of support today and the Conservative message is getting through that if households are having to tighten their belts, then the Government needs to tighten its belt as well.

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  7. Hmmmm, not so much "Worcester woman" but duff Worcester man

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  8. I am relieved to see a double digit lead again. The 3% lead as claimed by the MORI poll had me really worried that the population really were as stupid as Brooon believes. Why else would he spout the shite that he does?

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  9. Will everyone please stop telling pollsters that they will vote Conservative? If we can get Brown out in 2009 then it will be better for everyone.

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  10. A general election with 3 mio unemployed and a Labour Party openly admitting to tax rises ?

    In the bag old son in the jolly old bag.

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  11. hey does this mean Polly Toynbee will be anti Brown again? She must be getting giddy

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  12. "A general election with 3 mio unemployed and a Labour Party openly admitting to tax rises ?"

    And cuts in public spending. Don't forget the Labour cuts in public spending...

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  13. Totally off topic but... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/3502621/Pre-Budget-report-Big-VAT-cuts-to-boost-spending-in-emergency-budget.html

    To be clear, for every £11.75 I spend, I will save exactly 25 pence. Compare this reality to Brooon's of "real help in difficult times - we will take people through the downturn fairly".

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  14. I think maybe people have cottoned on to how useless Brown is at dealing with emotional issues, like Baby P's vile murder.

    And, of course, the Labour tax con. Roll on Monday - if the Tories get it right, Brown's sunk.

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  15. It always seems amazing how excited the commentariat get when opinion polls come out. MORI always seems to show a lower Tory and Lib Dem vote share, and despite a poll only 24 hours before the MORI one showing a consistent Tory lead of 8 points (i think) - all the broadcasters referred to the MORI poll.
    Sadly, the confirmation of the Tory lead will mean we will have to put up with the profligate one eyed monster for the longest time possible.

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  16. I'm with no longer anonymous on this.

    We need Brown out asap and tempting him into a general election appears to be the only way now that Labour MPs have put their careers and pensions before the country.

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  17. Labour MPs who would lose their seats on this poll:

    Alan Campbell - Tynemouth
    Albert Owen - Ynys Mon
    Andrew Dismore - Hendon
    Andrew Slaughter - Ealing Central and Acton
    Andy Reed - Loughborough
    Angela Smith - Basildon South and East Thurrock
    Ann Cryer - Keighley
    Ann Keen - Brentford and Isleworth
    Anna Snelgrove - Swindon South
    Anne McGuire - Stirling
    Barbara Follett - Stevenage
    Ben Chapman - Wirral South
    Betty Williams - Aberconwy
    Bill Olner - Nuneaton
    Bill Rammell - Harlow
    Bob Blizzard - Waveney
    Brian Jenkins - Tamworth
    Celia Barlow - Hove
    Chris Mole - Ipswich
    Christine McCafferty - Calder Valley
    Christine Russell - Chester, City of
    Claire Curtis-Thomas - Sefton Central
    Claire Ward - Watford
    Clive Efford - Eltham
    Colin Burgon - Elmet and Rothwell
    Dan Norris - Somerset North East
    Dari Taylor - Stockton South
    David Borrow - Ribble South
    David Chaytor - Bury North
    David Crausby - Bolton North East
    David Drew - Stroud
    David Kidney - Stafford
    David Lepper - Brighton Pavilion
    David Taylor - Leicestershire North West
    Desmond Turner - Brighton Kemptown
    Doug Naysmith - Bristol North West
    Eric Martlew - Carlisle
    Fabian Hamilton - Leeds North East
    Geraldine Smith - Morecambe and Lunesdale
    Gillian Merron - Lincoln
    Gisela Stuart - Birmingham Edgbaston
    Gordon Banks - Ochil and South Perthshire
    Gordon Prentice - Pendle
    Greg Pope - Hyndburn
    Gwyn Prosser - Dover
    Helen Southworth - Warrington South
    Howard Stoate - Dartford
    Ian Austin - Dudley North
    Ian Cawsey - Brigg and Goole
    Ian Pearson - Dudley South
    Jacqui Smith - Redditch
    James Plaskitt - Warwick and Leamington
    Jamie Reed - Copeland
    Janet Anderson - Rossendale and Darwen
    Janet Dean - Burton
    Jim Fitzpatrick - Poplar and Limehouse
    Jim Knight - Dorset South
    Jim Murphy - Renfrewshire East
    Joan Humble - Blackpool North and Cleveleys
    John Hutton - Barrow and Furness
    John Smith - Vale of Glamorgan
    Jonathan Shaw - Chatham and Aylesford
    Judy Mallaber - Amber Valley
    Julie Morgan - Cardiff North
    Kali Mountford - Colne Valley
    Karen Buck - Westminster North
    Laura Moffatt - Crawley
    Linda Gilroy - Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
    Linda Riordan - Halifax
    Lynda Waltho - Stourbridge
    Margaret Moran - Luton South
    Mark Todd - Derbyshire South
    Marsha Singh - Bradford West
    Martin Linton - Battersea
    Martin Salter - Reading West
    Mary Creagh - Wakefield
    Michael Foster - Worcester
    Michael Foster - Hastings and Rye
    Michael Wills - Swindon North
    Mike Hall - Weaver Vale
    Nick Ainger - Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South
    Nick Palmer - Broxtowe
    Nigel Griffiths - Edinburgh South
    Parmjit Dhanda - Gloucester
    Patrick Hall - Bedford
    Paul Truswell - Pudsey
    Phil Hope - Corby
    Phyllis Starkey - Milton Keynes South
    Robert Marris - Wolverhampton South West
    Roger Berry - Kingswood
    Russell Brown - Dumfries and Galloway
    Ruth Kelly - Bolton West
    Sadiq Khan - Tooting
    Sally Keeble - Northampton North
    Sarah McCarthy-Fry - Portsmouth North
    Shahid Malik - Dewsbury
    Shona McIsaac - Cleethorpes
    Sylvia Heal - Halesowen and Rowley Regis
    Tom Levitt - High Peak
    Tony McNulty - Harrow East
    Tony Wright - Great Yarmouth
    Vernon Coaker - Gedling

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  18. Let's not get too complacent please.

    The fact of the matter remains that the Tories don't have anything to counter the regime news and narrative management capability.

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  19. Shame it's not showing 3%, Brown may have gone for a snap election.

    We need to get rid of this man quickly.

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  20. Someone (Hazel Blears?) could win a lot of Brownie points by asking for a Speaker's Conference to get rid of this nonsense of Prime Minister's being able to call elections for party political reasons and instead having fixed term parliaments.

    There are other reforms needed but that would be a start.

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  21. Funny how Marr only mentioned the LibDems being down at 19% to the surrogate patron saint of the BBC Vince Cable (when St Al of Gore otherwise engaged spreading his huge carbon footprint across the world lecturing the rest of us to use low energy light bulbs).

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