Things look a little bleak in the Downing Street bunker tonight, don't they? The 18 point Tory lead in the Yougov poll should finally silence those - yes, I mean you John Harris - who keep saying 'why, oh why, oh why aren't the Tories further ahead in the polls?' *
I'm not stupid enough to believe that it is all down to the electorate finally waking up to the magnificence of the Tory policy platform. It's far more a result of Gordon Brown insulting his core vote, as I shall be explaining in my Telegraph column tomorrow - written several hours before this poll was published.
I wonder what the reaction of Labour MPs will be to the poll, particularly those in marginal seats. The Labour whips will be glad it wasn't published when MPs were still at Westminster.
* Con 44, Lab 26, Lib 17
I put the results in electoralcalculus.co.uk and got a Conservative majority of 164. Then I remembered that the Tories generally do a couple of points better than the polls, and the Socialists a couple of points worse, so I entered that and got a Conservative majority of 238.
ReplyDeleteAs I have pointed out elsewhere, though, even with that, though, we still don't win a single seat in Glasgow. And Bottler McBroon still keeps his seat and lavish MP's pension unfortunately.
Labour MPs face losing big with Gordon if they tow the party line. They would also continue to be traitors to their principles if they carry on supporting Brown ( the New Labour thing was fine when they were winning ).
ReplyDeleteOf course they won't. There's going to be blood on the carpet very soon.
The question is - if Gordon can finally wake up and smell the coffee on the 10p tax rate could he also be persuaded to stand down ?
It bodes well for next week but we need some detail and extra exposure about the compensation package over the 10p tax rate.
ReplyDeleteIf Labour are so deliriously unpopular, why are the ratings not reflecting this in London? I imagine May 1 will throw up some unwelcome shocks for the Tories.
ReplyDeleteWho will have the courage to tell Gordon?, as he never looks at these polls.... (must be true he told us so)
ReplyDeleteNow if I were a mobile phone salesman I would urgently be trying to contact Number Ten.
Its a lead which is not surprising in the circumstances. Hard to see where labour go from here because in my opinion Brown has not so much had a 'Poll Tax Moment', rather a 'Green Donkey Jacket Moment' - in fact a whole series of them.
ReplyDeleteHowever Tories will still need to work awfully hard. Many years ago I remember writing a letter which the Telegraph were kind enough to publish, just after John Majors unexpected victory. In it I said something along the lines of, 'Those whom the Gods destroy, first they give a 10-point lead in the polls.'.
I`d just like too say to bruuns henchmen who im told read this blog....how does it feel to back a loser and now you will find out how blair felt.goodbye
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely mind blowing if repeated at the General Election Cameron's home with a landslide majority of 164 and half the Cabinet is decimated(incl both Jack Straw and Alastair Darling) and whilst as you say it says more about Labour's core vote than anything it'll do Labour morale some harm which is no bad thing in itself as it's bound to sow more dissent in the ranks
ReplyDeleteHowever it's extremely unlikely it'd be repeated in an actual General Election although it bodes well for the local elections and the London Mayoral Contest next week and if the results are actually as dire for Labour as suggested by this poll then expect some "blood on the carpet" on Friday 2 May and mass panic on the back benches.
Great news.
ReplyDeleteI suspect that the Tory party will go into the elction with something like a 12-15% lead in the polls, which will be a small working majority.
However, I suspect that Labour will lose of lots of seast. I think the SNP will make huge inroads in Scotland, and Plaid will take a few seats in Wales too.
I think that in England, Labour will be squeezed by the Lib Dems. I can see some Lib Dem seats going Tory, and some labour seats going Lib Dem.
All in all, I think Labour will get a serious kicking, which will lead to the question - what are the Labour party for?
If they lose their way in Scotland, get squeezed by the nationalists in Wales, and the Lib Dems in England, the political landscape will be hugely different. I can see Labour imploding for three to four Parliaments - just as we did after 97!
Can't wait. I have longed for that day since that smug git Blair walked up Downing Street for the first time.
But as I keep saying, we need to know what the Conservatives now stand for!
Any moment now, that twunt who posts as "David Boothroyd" will be along to remind us that it's a psephological impossibility for Labour to lose the next election.
ReplyDeleteDream on, "David". Or whatever your real name is.
Ian - there ought to be another section so a poll would rad like this:
ReplyDeleteConservative 18
Labour 13
Liberal 7
Others 3
Those who feel they are all useless self-seeking leeches 59
Keep up the ranting. JD.
Iain, enjoy the moment. its just over 6 months since Gordn was dithering over whether to call a snap election to take advantage of his double digit poll leads.
ReplyDeleteThe sound you can hear is Black Jack Straw sharpening his dagger.
ReplyDeleteI'm shocked it's not higher.
ReplyDeleteIain, what's more, the data gathering for this poll was (I gather) some 85% comeplete before U-turngate occured. Wow, just wow.
ReplyDeleteBit of a big lead. The Labour party will have to work their socks off just to get above 30.
ReplyDeleteMore nonsense Iain.
ReplyDeleteThe media has sinfully distorted how the poor will be compensated by plastic-bag-tax credits and bin offence jail term waivers.
And in the meantime, thanks to Gordon's bail out, they can again borrow from banks 'cause fags went up 30p a pack today.
Get ur facts straight.
Oh yes YouGov to the rescue again..Yawn
ReplyDeleteAs I have pointed out elsewhere, though, even with that, though, we still don't win a single seat in Glasgow.
ReplyDeleteSo what? The Tories don't need any seats in Glasgow--or anywhere in Scotland for that matter--to win the next election.
The date and result of the next general election has already been decided and el Gordo does exceptionally well. So well in fact that he is going to cancel all further elections as they are a waste of (hard working) tax payer’s money.
ReplyDeleteAlternatively, he could arrange for another terrorist incident and suspend democracy in the interests of security (of hard working families).
to paraphrase McMillan:
ReplyDelete"house prices dear boy, house prices"
You do have to hand to Tone, he got out just a FEW DAYS before the top - unbelievable f'ing unbelievable.
Its just a shame that we now have Tone ll lined up to run things now - unbelievable f'ing unbelievable.
"So what? The Tories don't need any seats in Glasgow--or anywhere in Scotland for that matter--to win the next election."
ReplyDeleteClearly they don't, it's just mildly interesting to note.
"Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything."
ReplyDeleteWorth saying again.
18 points is a high sided outrider just as 6 may be a low sided one. Probably about 10% in real life and at least 13 months to go until a GE.
ReplyDeleteEr, Iain, if not obvious to yourself, the other Chris Paul 10:58 pm was not my good self.
ReplyDeleteDon't you have any rules on personation on here?
From the Scottish breakdown:
ReplyDeleteSNP - 35%
Labour - 28%
Con - 22%
Lib Dem - 12%
This puts the SNP on 25 seats; Labour would be on 21; there's a mini-Tory revival taking them to 7; while the Lib Dems plummet to 6.
Strip out the distorting effect of the UK figures to take account of the specific Scottish results (can't do it for Wales, since YouGov lump it in with the Midlands) and you get:
Con: 401
Lab: 170
Lib Dem: 28
SNP: 25
PC: 5
Northern Irish: 18
...giving a Tory majority of 155 over all other parties, and the Lib Ddems struggling to hold their status as the UK's third party.
According to electoralcalculus.co.uk, this poll result would result in the following Labour luminaries losing their seats:-
ReplyDeleteJohn Hutton
Angela Smith
Gisela Stuart
Jack Straw (yay!)
Ruth Kelly (yay!)
Geoffrey Robinson
Jon Cruddas
Ian Austin (yay!)
Tessa Jowell (yee-haaa!)
Alistair Darling (where are my 72 virgins, cuz I must be in heaven)
Andrew Dismal
Ann Cryer
Charles Clarke
Jacqui Smith
Barbara Follett
and among the dhimmis:-
Julia Goldsworthy
Christopher Huhne
Evan Harris
and some pipsqueak called Nick Clegg.
What would be so beautiful about such a result is that it would completely dish the prospects of a whole bunch of muppets who aspire to supplant Snotgobbler.
Which kinda says they'd better get rid of the bugger now.
Fun to work with those figures, particularly when we have a Scottish breakdown.
ReplyDeletePlugging into my patented swingometer, with the Scottish variation and the England wide swing altered slightly to counterbalance, I get Con 398, Lab 174, Lib 28, SNP 24, PC 5, Con majority 146.
Fun results in Scotland:
SNP expel Labour from Aberdeen and Dundee, and together with Con, they expel Labour from Edinburgh. So much for Labour as a party of the urban centres, though they do hold most of Glasgow apart from one loss to SNP. Con takes Darling's seat Edinburgh South West, which would hurt if it ever happened.
Elsewhere:
Clegg loses his seat Sheffield Hallam (my swingometer is URS only, no incumbency). The late Gwyneth Dunwoody's seat, Crewe and Nantwich falls. Con take Carlisle, Blackpool, Lancaster, two thirds of Bolton and a half of Leeds. Further south, they take Northampton, half of Labour's Birmingham seats, two thirds of Coventry, Dudley and Walsall. Only a Lib hold in Cambridge prevents Con grand slam in the East and two Lib seats stand between a similar thing in the South East. Labour completely extinct in both. It's not all bad news though. They hold Bristol South, which means that do have some seats in the south of England outside of London. In Wales, Con take half of Cardiff and all of Clywd.
Of course, this is all just for a bit of fun.
"If they lose their way in Scotland, get squeezed by the nationalists in Wales, and the Lib Dems in England, the political landscape will be hugely different. I can see Labour imploding for three to four Parliaments "
ReplyDeleteAdrian Yalland.
It could be that this will be more than just a passing defeat for Labour . Could be the end of them as a major party. If they get beaten in Scotalnd, Wales and England there isn't really a place for them to go. The political landscape changes fundamentally every once in while and this could be that once.
So sad ! The tears are welling up I must get my hankie.
Its a poll, so cannot be representative of a general election, where people have to actually gear themselves up to vote, rather than merely think about it.
ReplyDeleteI do believe that YouGov try to reflect this in their results whereas the Guardians polls may not do. But anyway - I think its misleading to try to predict the election on share of the vote - some MPs will over perform and unfortunately for the Tories the way boundaries are drawn helps labour.
However ...
"What would be so beautiful about such a result is that it would completely dish the prospects of a whole bunch of muppets who aspire to supplant Snotgobbler."
This unpalatable fact for some may persuade them to try to unseat Brown before their prospects are nobbled for good.