UPDATE: Actually, it's 41%. That's he last time I believe Michael Portillo, who announced it on THIS WEEK!
Later this morning I will be driving to a secret location in Berkshire where I will be speaking at a
political commentator * author * publisher * bookseller * radio presenter * blogger * Conservative candidate * former lobbyist * Jack Russell owner * West Ham United fanatic * Email iain AT iaindale DOT com
Friday, October 26, 2007
A Good Day to be a Conservative
With a poll showing the Tories on 43% in the Telegraph this morning (highest rating for 15 years) and local government by election victories in Sefton and Harlow, it is a good time to be a Conservative.
UPDATE: Actually, it's 41%. That's he last time I believe Michael Portillo, who announced it on THIS WEEK!
Later this morning I will be driving to a secret location in Berkshire where I will be speaking at aConservative Madrassa Young Britons Foundation training weekend. And by way of a contrast, on Sunday morning I'll be addressing the Institute of Ideas 'Battle of Ideas' conference on the dumbing down of British TV, alongside Peter Horrocks, Guy Rundle, Ray Snoddy and Minette Marrin.
UPDATE: Actually, it's 41%. That's he last time I believe Michael Portillo, who announced it on THIS WEEK!
Later this morning I will be driving to a secret location in Berkshire where I will be speaking at a
Yipee
ReplyDeleteI am confused...
ReplyDeleteSome are saying its a Conservative headline figure of 43%, whilst others are reporting 41%. Why the confusion, not that I am complaining about either number which is great for the Conservatives?
Surely Taliban Tim would be more to the YBF's liking?
ReplyDelete41%, Iain. It's not THAT good a day to be a Conservative!
ReplyDeleteThe Tories are actually on 41%, but it's encouraging to see that Broon's troubles over recent weeks have hit his personal rating and given Cam a boost...
ReplyDeleteNever a dull moment.
ReplyDeletethe complete wipeout by the libdems in the cumbria by-election though, is a little worrying...
ReplyDeleteExxxxcellent (said in a Mr. Burns stylee). Great poll results - whatever happened to Broon's 11 point lead?
ReplyDeleteThe "conservative madrassa" comment crakced me up :-)
enjoy it while it lasts
ReplyDeleteNot very good with these polls are you Iain ! its actually 41%.
ReplyDeletegiving them a 3% lead over Labour. Placed in perspective, two years or more to go to a GE. The government enjoying the worse media attacks in ages, and the main opposition party is three per cent ahead, very nice, but hardly, catastrophic for a third term government.
Not quite such good news as it is 41% not 43%!
ReplyDeleteOh goodie - it's time for Gormless Norm Tebbit to open his mouth again and f*ck it up for Dave.
ReplyDeleteUPDATE: Actually, it's 41%. That's he last time I believe Michael Portillo, who announced it on THIS WEEK!
ReplyDelete(Iain dale is 47)
A feew weeks ago you were saying that Labour's 11% lead was just a blip.
ReplyDeleteHang on a second Iain, you are being a little misleading here.
ReplyDeleteAfter all that has happened in the past month, you are only 3% ahead in the polls.
Were you not double figures ahead last month. If you think this is good news I would hate to see bad. In the run up to the 2001 poll Willy Vague was 1-3 ahead in some polls. In 2005 Dracula was 1-2 ahead in some polls. Mid term, 3 party in disarray, and a PM who is having a hard time of late, and yet you are only 3% ahead in a Telegraph poll. I wouldn’t get too excited if I were you, even on those figures Cambo wouldn’t achieve a majority.
Anonymous, it you who is being (deliberately?) misleading. This time last month Labour had a double digit lead. The biggest Tory lead has been around 8% but that was some time ago. 41% is the highest the Tories have been for 15 years. The reason the gap is narrow is because the LibDem vote has been squeezed from both ends.
ReplyDeleteYou are quite right that a 3% lead is not enough to give the Conservatives a majority. That is because of our biased constituency boundaries.
I think this is actually much worse for Labour because the economic situation is still perceived as quite good by the general population but I believe this will not last as it is actually starting to stall. Has nobody noticed that the economy is slowing (whatever the statistics might say)? Selling a house is getting much more difficult which I suspect will be the harbinger of price falls. Once people don't feel so rosy about the economy then it will be down hill for Labour and Brown will be out.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile at the Daily Labourgraph Anthony King is doing his best to fight back:
ReplyDelete"Labour still enjoys a narrow three-point lead over the Tories in response to YouGov.s "forced choice" question which asks people to choose between a Cameron-led government and a Brown-led government.
Labour also leads the Tories narrowly on the crucial issue of economic competence"
I've deliberately refrained from making comments about the Conservative leadership during this pleasant "rebound", but I'm far from convinced that this is a permanent feature. We can but hope! The euphoria over the PMQ performance by DC has a hint of the "rose tinted specs" about it. Let's just tarry awhile, keep our fingers crossed and wait for which side drops another king sized clanger and shoves the clapometer in the other direction!
ReplyDeleteGood day to be a Conservative ? You've been out of office for ever. Good day to be Labour we at least have three more years to really annoy the hell out of you.
ReplyDeleteIain Dale said 10.10 AM...
ReplyDeleteYou are quite right that a 3% lead is not enough to give the Conservatives a majority. That is because of our biased constituency boundaries.
In what way are the boundaries biased? What would you propose to remedy the situation?
I gather further changes on the way at Central Office - deadwood departing.
ReplyDeleteThey really seem to be getting things right now!
Gordon Brown's Labour's canker and encumberance , are they gonna have the sense to try excise him before the next election? I doubt it, so things can only get direr. Mutually Assured Destruction with Gordon. They deserve each other.
ReplyDeleteAsk Horrocks what the bloody hell they're doing chopping, nay decimating, budgets for news and factual, when the licence fee is actually going up in cash [if not real] terms ??
ReplyDeleteaardvark said...
ReplyDeleteIain Dale said 10.10 AM...
What would you propose to remedy the situation?
Wait for another couple of years before you start to worry about it, who knows you may not be so happy with the polls then.
Anonymous 9:01
ReplyDeleteIs the Flunking Cyst really leading a third term government ? So what's all this bollocks about vision and change then?
It won't half drop if Davy boy renages on a referendum,before or after traitor Brown signs us up.
ReplyDeleteDidn't realise it was the 5th of Never?!
ReplyDeletedidn't you read the telegraph before writing about it? sloppy as hell, iain. especially for someone so desperately pleased to be allowed to write for it sometimes! xxx
ReplyDeleteYour "secret location" wouldn't be Wellington College, Berkshire by any chance?
ReplyDeleteWould the "Battle of Ideas" be the one run by the "Institute of (Marxist Liberal Humanist) Ideas" which was started by the co-publisher of "Living Marxism" by any chance?
ReplyDeleteA quick trawl through the list of conspiritors gives the game away.
These people are so arrogant. It's like calling Labour the "Truth and Integrity Party".
The Main idea behind The "Institute of Ideas" is to make sure nobody gets any. It's so mainstream you could go whitewater rafting on it.
Funny Iain - I recall you telling me you weren't a journalist...
ReplyDeleteMust've been somebody else who wrote you little biog then -
http://www.battleofideas.org.uk/index.php/site/speaker_detail/24/
PS - ask Peter Horrocks about why he dressed up so strangely each Current Affairs Christmas party.
Also ask him if he ever feels guilty leaving Current Affairs for News and knowing Mark "Gnasher" Thompson has gutted that department since he was reposted?
Carl, sigh. Do you really think I write the biogs in their brochure?
ReplyDeleteboundaries are biased in that they are smaller in Scotland, which has a higher number of Labour MPs, even though they have their own parliament. Also in London, there should be less, but the Boundary Commission seems to think that Borough Boundaries are even higher than the Berlin Wall.
ReplyDeleteExample Hackney and Islington added togehter are entitled to 3 constituences, but as they failed to cross these oh so high boundaries, there are still two per borough. On that basis, Barnet, which has only three constituencies, should have four.
sorry for going off piste a bit but there is a question that always bugs me when one sees Tories condemning our involvement in Iraq - disaster that it is. Had there been a C. government at the time, say 2000, what do you think the Tory response would have been? Would they (post 911) chosen to side with the French et al and not supported the invasion of Iraq? I know this is a counterfactual but given we might end up in the same situation re Iran under a future Tory Government I wonder what people think would have happened?
ReplyDeleteSefton Tory victory involved 11 per cent swing to Lib Dems in Ashcroft-funded Tory candidate's own ward.
ReplyDeleteIain, sigh. Do I really think you write the biogs in their brochure?
ReplyDeleteErm, sigh, gasp, ahme. Yes! Yes, I do. Well, you seem like such a busy man, doing TV, radio, blogging, think-tank, consultancy, after dinner speaking, small rodent recovery, appearing at the Windmill theatre.... I'd just thought you'd ensure nothing written about you was inaccurate in any way, shape or form.
Is it true you once ferried the Queen Mum's winning racing ticket to Ladbrokes?
So, sigh. Did you ask Horrocks those questions, or aren't you the kind to kiss and tell? (another sigh and just a little hesitant gasp)
see, I can do patronising too, sweetie.
Carl, do piss off. You're not clever and you're not funny. Who is it you write for? The Basildon Gazette? Can't think for the life of me why.
ReplyDeleteIain said: "Carl, do piss off. You're not clever and you're not funny. Who is it you write for? The Basildon Gazette? Can't think for the life of me why."
ReplyDeleteAh, nerve and touched, eh?