Projecting Politics has published its predictions for the local elections on Thursday. You can download the full document HERE, which lists every Council and their predictions. Astonishingly they are predicting one or two Labour gains!
Metropolitan Boroughs
Labour win:· St Helens from NOC
Labour lose:· Oldham to NOC· Sheffield to the LibDems
Conservatives win:· North Tyneside from NOC
LibDems win:· Sheffield from Labour· Rochdale, Sefton from NOC
Unitary Authorities
Labour win:· North Lincolnshire from NOC
Labour lose:· Blackpool to the Conservatives· Blackburn with Darwen, Telford and Wreckin to NOC
Conservatives win:· Blackpool from Labour· East Riding of Yorkshire, Herefordshire, Plymouth, Portsmouth from NOC
Conservatives lose:· North Lincolnshire to Labour
LibDems win:· Bristol, Kingston upon Hull, Leicester, Redcar and Cleveland from NOC
District Councils
Labour win:· Ashfield from NOC
Labour lose:· Allerdale, Gravesham and Lincoln to the Conservatives
Conservatives win:· Allerdale, Gravesham and Lincoln from Labour· West Lindsey from the LibDems· Barrow in Furness, Boston, Braintree, Bridgenorth, Broxtowe, Charnwood, Chester, Chichester, Colchester, Craven, Dartford, Dover, Elmbridge, Forest of Dean, Gedling, Gloucester, North Dirset, North Kesteven, North Warwickshire, North Wiltshire, Oswestry, Redditch, Richmondshire, Rubgy, Shepway, South Cambridgeshire, South Ribble, Tendring, Tewkesbury, West Wiltshire from NOC
Conservatives lose:· Aylesbury Vale to the LibDems
LibDems win:· Aylesbury Vale from the Conservatives· Canterbury, East Cambridgeshire, Harborough, Malvern Hills, Restormel, Ryedale, South Shropshire, Waverley from NOC
LibDems lose:· West Lindsey to the Conservatives
Independents win:· Alnwick, Caradon, East Lindsey, Lancaster, North Shropshire from NOC
All this means that the Conservatives have a net gain of 39 councils (if I have counted correctly). I think I would settle for that. Many of these are from No Overall Control. The LibDems have a net gain of 17 councils and Labour only have a net loss of 5, which I would have thought was a bit low. We'll see.
I really do not know why this prediction is suggesting that Canterbury will be gained by the Liberal Democrats. I fail to see where they could gain seats, especially given that they are under huge threat of losing their marginal seats in Herne and Barton.
ReplyDeleteI agree with anon 9:11:
ReplyDeleteUp here they may clinch Rochdale - but other results wouldn't be too surprising
But Oldham - not sure, they had two years at it and they were a disaster. Their erstwhile leader said WTTE that:
"It's easy in opposition - you can say anyhting and do nothing. But in power you have to make hard decisions. We weren't up to it."
Similarly Sheffield.
In Manchester and Liverpool they are highly likely to lose a number of seats. In the former Tories have an outside chance of a single seat. Hard to call that ward. Disconnected from the real city.
Can't see Thurrock in the download?
ReplyDeleteTheir prediction for North Tyneside doesn't give me much faith in their overall predictions.
ReplyDeleteFor a start, Labour control North Tyneside as they have the elected Mayor, so the results on Thursday are meaningless when it comes to control.
Secondly, there are very few additional seats that are even within reach for the Conservatives - one at most - and quite a few that are very vulnerable. So no change is the most likely outcome.
Regarding Waverley, there is a strong Independent challenge mostly made up of ex-Lib Dems which could throw things into doubt.
ReplyDeletewould have thought Taunton Deane would be a Con loss to Lib Dems?
ReplyDeletecant see how the tories will win tendring,they wont even have any councillors in frinton!!!
ReplyDeleteSome strange predictions on there. They seem to think Labour will have a good night. We shall see. I wouldn't be afraid to be their bookmaker though.
ReplyDeleteLib Dems won't win Harborough from NOC, it's very close and really should go Conservative this time around.
ReplyDeleteNorth Kesteven District Council is already Conservative Controlled, following the defection of a member of the NK Independents Group last December.
ReplyDeleteStrange prediction regarding North West Leicestershire, there only predicting 1 Labour seat loss, and them to hold the council.
ReplyDeleteLabour are highly unlikely to hold control of the council, their deeply unpopular particularly in areas previously consider "Labour Strongholds".
Tories to lose Berwick to NOC, and it's possible that Lib Dems could take Alnwick, though it may well stay LD-Ind
ReplyDeleteI'm struggling to see where the Lib Dems will take the seats to gain Sheffield, but I have admittedly been rather out of sync with what's going on.
ReplyDeletecrewe and nantwich should go to conservative from no overall control.
ReplyDeleteAlso, watch out for Milton Keynes remaining NOC - but with us, and not the Lib Dems as the largest party.
ReplyDeleteIain, any insights into your prediction that the Lib Dems will win control of Aylesbury Vale?
ReplyDeleteThe Sheffield prediction is dubious. The Lib Dems would have to pick up rock-solid Labour seats to take control.
ReplyDeleteI think a much more sensible prediction would be that Sheffield goes NOC this year and then a Lib Dem win the next.
Why would the LDs take Canterbury when the Tories have been eating down their seats for a number of years?
ReplyDeleteAlthough Malvern Hills is technically NOC, the Lib Dems actually run the council in co-operation with the Greens.
ReplyDeleteI'd be very surprised if the LDs win outright control. The Conservatives (who have 5 candidates standing unopposed) are very likely to make inroads and could even win back control.
It will be very interesting to compare these predictions with the actual outcome because some of them seem a bit 'off the wall'.
Canterbury? unlikely. Canterbury has been a Tory safe seat since 1887(?) and the council tends to be either Tory or NOC. Yes, there has been a lot of bad press regarding the Kent Tories but its hard to see it will fall.
ReplyDeleteI live in Canterbury and I can tell you first hand that the Tories have been very vocal this year. Candidates are always knocking on our doors and meeting the locals. In the papers too, its hard to see how you think it will be a Lib dem win.
Lib Dems win 17 councils!!
ReplyDelete(chuckle chuckle!)
A likely story..
Interesting to watch Brighton & Hove unitary. Currently NOC with Labour minority administration, but a very strong Green group and LibDems will put Labour into 2nd place, and I think Conservatives could pick up a few odd seats in Hove and Portslade and take overall control of the council.
ReplyDeleteWill remove one of the last big red blobs in the South East.
North Lincs is not currently NOC although it may seem like it to outsiders. It's Con controlled. Unquestionably.
ReplyDeleteA by election has just been called as well due to the death of one the Con cadndidates.