political commentator * author * publisher * bookseller * radio presenter * blogger * Conservative candidate * former lobbyist * Jack Russell owner * West Ham United fanatic * Email iain AT iaindale DOT com
Monday, April 09, 2007
Basildon: Conservative Hold
For those of you who love election nights, BBC Parliament is currently replaying the BBC election night coverage. However, it's not on Freeview (they're playing cartoons!), only on Sky Channel 504. Graph courtesy of BBC.
"Thanks to Iain Dale's note on Facebook I am now watching Election 92 on BBC Parliament whilst typing this. I won't watch it for too long as I have an aversion to horror films :/ I remember the evening fairly well. I was in the fifth form/Year 11 at school and one of the few who stated themselves as a Labour supporter during the election campaign. Most of the others were a broad mixture of Conservatives and Lib Dems, so I did feel a bit vulnerable when I was involved in political arguments. Come the night itself and I stayed up in bed to listen to the first two results on radio, before switching the light off and going to sleep. 4:30AM and I wake up and switch on the radio expecting the good news of Labour holding the edge in a hung parliament. Unfortunatley for me I switched on at the very moment most Labour activists and supporters feel sick and angry on an election night when the Tories win: The arrival at Conservative Central Office of their beloved leader. Chris Pattern losing his seat was scant comfort and I was now very tired and very distressed. My cries, which went along the lines of"Noooooo. Those b******s. They got in again! I can't believe it! Are most voters in this country stupid?" woke up one or two family members who were none too pleased. They were none too pleased at my waking them up either. But what I didn't realise then (and neither did the Tories or Labour), is that many voted Conservative, not out of pleasure or happiness with the government, but because they feared tax hikes during a recession (which the Conservatives did the following year on fuel). That the result was out of fear of living in a worse economic climate than the one they had to endure under the Conservatives. So the following day, when I, like many others who publicly declared for Labour, had to endure the smug comments, the taunts, and the cheap wit. It was in a climate of not knowing that the Conservatives were now offically on parole, not clear endorsement. The sheer huge defeat for the Tories in 1997 spells that out. However, one comment I made thought on that horrible day of April 10th 1992 of which I am proud of was this. "Five years from now, people will be begging for a Labour government" and to be slightly smug in turn, I was absolutely right. The warning though is that I fear that we ourselves in the Labour government are on parole and if we win the next general election, which I hope and expect, we must do so in a spirit of humility and caution if we are to survive a very long period in government.
UPDATE: Watching Basildon result. David Amess mentioning his majority has gone up, being cheap and smug. So interesting to watch these things with the benefit of hindsight."
Just think what a fantastic government that won that election was too. Promising tax cuts and delivering, errr, tax rises. promising to make the pound a stable currency and delivering, errr, ummm, a massive devaluation. The list of its achievements is immense. And I am sure they will feature heavily in future party literature. Labour Party literature that is.
Excellent bank holiday viewing for us political anoraks!
I'm still with Simon Heffer, who allegedly bellowed "Tory gain!" when the ineffectual Chris Patten got what was coming to him!
David Mellor - still quite repellent. Puts me off listening to Classic FM when he's on.
As for the difference between 1992 and 1997, two observations:
1) The Kinnock factor was huge - he scared lots of voters, wasn't credible as a PM, and that Sheffield rally... contrast this with the carefully managed creation of ZaNuLab by Blair, Mandelson and Campbell, helped along by the utter incompetence of Major and lamentable Lamont on Black Monday - so utterly stupid - people were already squeezed hard with interest rates at 10%, but those idiots pushed them up to 12% and then 15% in the course of one day(!), throwing away billions and billions in foreign exchange reserves (to the likes of George Soros, ugh), all in a pointless defence of Britain's ERM position. Utter madness.
2) Blair has never, not even in 1997, received more votes in total than John Major got in 1992! There has been, and continues to be, a huge stay at home factor since 1992, and no wonder after Major/Lamont (see above). That combined with tactical voting to 'keep the tories' out has done for us ever since.
The question is, will Cameron's move to appeal to Lib/Lab floating voters motivate the stay-at-home conseratives to come out to play again?
Burgin said... "I won't watch it for too long as I have an aversion to horror films..."
If you think you're hard done by, imagine never in your life having voted for the winning party at a General Election. Throughout my adult life as a Liberal supporter (until last year) that's the position I was in.
A few words of comfort for the nulabbers on here from a seasoned former Liberal.
I do feel for you, but don't despair, nulabbers, you will manage to cope with the decades of defeat.
The first twenty years or so are hard. But after that, you become quite philosophical about being repeatedly beaten and almost wear these defeats as a badge of moral superiority.
Kinnock: "The battle is not yet over and it is a battle - a battle for the survival of the NHS, and a battle for proper investment in the children who go to the maintained schools and the local schools of this country, a battle to protect learning, and the independence of our universities and broadcasting, a battle to secure freedom of information."
Strange enough, most of that stayed intact under the Conservatives and was destrioyed by Blair.
I was 14 at this election and it was my first all-nighter! It was also the last exciting election as the result was unknown till about 3am. Also I forgot the Tories used to have Scots in it! Also in the days before the BBC started breeding correspondent, how all their reports from across the globe were recalled home and sent to various counts across the country. They were the days.
Just to point out you can watch coverage on the BBC website as well. Must say one notable difference is the level of protection around the Prime Minister, in 1992 it was 3 cars, a handful of local bobbies and fiveish plain clothes special branch. Now when the PM swings into town it is a convoy of protected cars; what seems like 100s of bobbies, most armed and around 25 special branch officers.
Whilst I fully understand why; it is a shame as it distances the Prime Minister from ordinary people and means they are even more removed from everyday life that they were before.
In the early hours Peter Kellner pointed out the greater swing away from the Tories in the Midlands and the North. He also showed that Liberals voted tactically in Lab-Con marginals to get Tories out. In 1992, for those with eyes to see and ears to hear.
The 1992 Election. Gave the Conservatives a mandate for another 5 years of Government.
Also gave them a large number of new Tory MPs - young and inexperienced, who harked back to the days of Thatcher, and the golden Europhobic leadership that never was. They took the Conservative Party apart. With a majority of 21, John Major, who was by all accounts a good PM hamstrung by his party, could not control them.
They were a disgrace, and are responsible for the position the Tory party are in now. They also run the party now. How else could Tory MPs get away with being signed up to BOO?
So, 1992 - 5 years more Government, but 50+ Tory troublemakers who rendered their party unelectable for a generation.
48 hours beforehand the '92 GE, I predicted the Tory seats - to within 2 of the final result. People almost tried to Section me!
It was based on my own detailed review of all seats - and the notion that people would look over the edge, but would pull back from idea of putting Kinnock in Downing Street.
Just so you know. I remember I was in the Savoy when the Basildon result came through. How we whooped and hollared!
Just seen Ken Livingstone being interviewed and saying how the labour party should have mentioned constraints on the overseas movement of capital. Is he any relation to the other Ken Livingstone the Mayor of London who wants to build as many skyscrapers as possible and ensure that London is a key financial centre?
PS Meeting in Sheffield bring flags and over optism....
Steppenwolff ITN - got the result right but the BBC and ITM shared their poll results before the 10pm announcement. The BBC results were so off beam that they influenced ITN into changing their prediction from a "small Conservative majority" to a "hung parliament".
Anonymous 4.16 - Couldn't disagree more John Major was totally incompetent and unsuitable for high office - he bought the defeat on himself:
1.he unleashed the left-wing BBC dogs of war on himself ON THE FIRST DAY (11th April 2002) of his new parliament by turning up on the Today programe to announce that "the BBC is safe with us". Thus giving them complete cart blanch to set the agenda about a "Tory Government ripped apart by the issue of Europe and corruption" day in day out for 5 years.
2. He wobbled on golden Wednesday when sterling left the ERM and turned a golden opportunity into a total own goal on the UK economy. This has continued to this day and lost the "safe economic hands" tag that the Conservative party enjoyed since the war and accounts for 1-2 million right wing "stay at home" voters.
3.He failed to prevent the Boundary Commission from coming up with a formula that actually helped the Labour party, despite a continued population shift away from city-center constituencies.
In turn the media has spun out the repercussions of his failures as indicating that the Conservatives are "too right wing".
Yep you are correct Sky news started in '89. I just don't recall ever seeing a Sky exit poll. Indeed didn't they share their exit poll prediction with the BBC in 2005?
I only saw snatches of it but it certainly was fascinating - particularly the bit where a young Tony Blair popped up to say that Labour needed to change more before it could win again. Say what you like, the man is a superb political strategist. Does anyone know if it's possible to download the whole thing and watch it again? Some of us have partners who, for some strange reason, won't allow us to spend the entire day watching 15-year-old election coverage on the internet...
How did John Major bring defeat on himself? Point 1 and 3 are irrelevant, point 2 marks you out as one of the Tory idiots who got the party into so much trouble as it was - which rather proves my point.
My lasting memory of that election is simply how much (love him or hate him you have) to admire John Major. He started off being egged and having food thrown at him. Yet by the end he had won the election by refusing to give up and for fighting for what he believed in (whether you agree or not with what he believed it is noble to keep going when you think others disagree with you)
Sorry to contradict you but I think there's something wrong with your digibox. I can get it on Freeview.
ReplyDeleteI just love how wrong all the BBC predictions were.
And ITN and Sky. All the predictions were wrong.
ReplyDeleteFrom my blog:
ReplyDelete"Thanks to Iain Dale's note on Facebook I am now watching Election 92 on BBC Parliament whilst typing this. I won't watch it for too long as I have an aversion to horror films :/
I remember the evening fairly well. I was in the fifth form/Year 11 at school and one of the few who stated themselves as a Labour supporter during the election campaign. Most of the others were a broad mixture of Conservatives and Lib Dems, so I did feel a bit vulnerable when I was involved in political arguments.
Come the night itself and I stayed up in bed to listen to the first two results on radio, before switching the light off and going to sleep. 4:30AM and I wake up and switch on the radio expecting the good news of Labour holding the edge in a hung parliament. Unfortunatley for me I switched on at the very moment most Labour activists and supporters feel sick and angry on an election night when the Tories win: The arrival at Conservative Central Office of their beloved leader.
Chris Pattern losing his seat was scant comfort and I was now very tired and very distressed. My cries, which went along the lines of"Noooooo. Those b******s. They got in again! I can't believe it! Are most voters in this country stupid?" woke up one or two family members who were none too pleased.
They were none too pleased at my waking them up either.
But what I didn't realise then (and neither did the Tories or Labour), is that many voted Conservative, not out of pleasure or happiness with the government, but because they feared tax hikes during a recession (which the Conservatives did the following year on fuel). That the result was out of fear of living in a worse economic climate than the one they had to endure under the Conservatives. So the following day, when I, like many others who publicly declared for Labour, had to endure the smug comments, the taunts, and the cheap wit. It was in a climate of not knowing that the Conservatives were now offically on parole, not clear endorsement. The sheer huge defeat for the Tories in 1997 spells that out.
However, one comment I made thought on that horrible day of April 10th 1992 of which I am proud of was this. "Five years from now, people will be begging for a Labour government" and to be slightly smug in turn, I was absolutely right. The warning though is that I fear that we ourselves in the Labour government are on parole and if we win the next general election, which I hope and expect, we must do so in a spirit of humility and caution if we are to survive a very long period in government.
UPDATE: Watching Basildon result. David Amess mentioning his majority has gone up, being cheap and smug. So interesting to watch these things with the benefit of hindsight."
Just think what a fantastic government that won that election was too. Promising tax cuts and delivering, errr, tax rises. promising to make the pound a stable currency and delivering, errr, ummm, a massive devaluation. The list of its achievements is immense. And I am sure they will feature heavily in future party literature. Labour Party literature that is.
ReplyDeleteI get weird pangs looking at the faces of those long gone, John Smith, the even more tragic Jill Dando.
ReplyDeleteI do not like nostalgia.
Excellent bank holiday viewing for us political anoraks!
ReplyDeleteI'm still with Simon Heffer, who allegedly bellowed "Tory gain!" when the ineffectual Chris Patten got what was coming to him!
David Mellor - still quite repellent. Puts me off listening to Classic FM when he's on.
As for the difference between 1992 and 1997, two observations:
1) The Kinnock factor was huge - he scared lots of voters, wasn't credible as a PM, and that Sheffield rally... contrast this with the carefully managed creation of ZaNuLab by Blair, Mandelson and Campbell, helped along by the utter incompetence of Major and lamentable Lamont on Black Monday - so utterly stupid - people were already squeezed hard with interest rates at 10%, but those idiots pushed them up to 12% and then 15% in the course of one day(!), throwing away billions and billions in foreign exchange reserves (to the likes of George Soros, ugh), all in a pointless defence of Britain's ERM position. Utter madness.
2) Blair has never, not even in 1997, received more votes in total than John Major got in 1992! There has been, and continues to be, a huge stay at home factor since 1992, and no wonder after Major/Lamont (see above). That combined with tactical voting to 'keep the tories' out has done for us ever since.
The question is, will Cameron's move to appeal to Lib/Lab floating voters motivate the stay-at-home conseratives to come out to play again?
We shall see. Meanwhile, back to 1992...
Burgin said...
ReplyDelete"I won't watch it for too long as I have an aversion to horror films..."
If you think you're hard done by, imagine never in your life having voted for the winning party at a General Election. Throughout my adult life as a Liberal supporter (until last year) that's the position I was in.
Auntie Flo'
A few words of comfort for the nulabbers on here from a seasoned former Liberal.
ReplyDeleteI do feel for you, but don't despair, nulabbers, you will manage to cope with the decades of defeat.
The first twenty years or so are hard. But after that, you become quite philosophical about being repeatedly beaten and almost wear these defeats as a badge of moral superiority.
Auntie Flo'
Kinnock:
ReplyDelete"The battle is not yet over and it is a battle - a battle for the survival of the NHS, and a battle for proper investment in the children who go to the maintained schools and the local schools of this country, a battle to protect learning, and the independence of our universities and broadcasting, a battle to secure freedom of information."
Strange enough, most of that stayed intact under the Conservatives and was destrioyed by Blair.
Ah, but those pesky Liberals do seem to have made big strides in the past twenty years
ReplyDeleteI love watching Chris Patterns face! haha
ReplyDeleteI was 14 at this election and it was my first all-nighter! It was also the last exciting election as the result was unknown till about 3am. Also I forgot the Tories used to have Scots in it!
ReplyDeleteAlso in the days before the BBC started breeding correspondent, how all their reports from across the globe were recalled home and sent to various counts across the country. They were the days.
Just to point out you can watch coverage on the BBC website as well.
ReplyDeleteMust say one notable difference is the level of protection around the Prime Minister, in 1992 it was 3 cars, a handful of local bobbies and fiveish plain clothes special branch. Now when the PM swings into town it is a convoy of protected cars; what seems like 100s of bobbies, most armed and around 25 special branch officers.
Whilst I fully understand why; it is a shame as it distances the Prime Minister from ordinary people and means they are even more removed from everyday life that they were before.
In the early hours Peter Kellner pointed out the greater swing away from the Tories in the Midlands and the North. He also showed that Liberals voted tactically in Lab-Con marginals to get Tories out. In 1992, for those with eyes to see and ears to hear.
ReplyDeleteWhilst I fully understand why;
ReplyDeleteYes, the current PM is a self important t*sser.
The 1992 Election. Gave the Conservatives a mandate for another 5 years of Government.
ReplyDeleteAlso gave them a large number of new Tory MPs - young and inexperienced, who harked back to the days of Thatcher, and the golden Europhobic leadership that never was. They took the Conservative Party apart. With a majority of 21, John Major, who was by all accounts a good PM hamstrung by his party, could not control them.
They were a disgrace, and are responsible for the position the Tory party are in now. They also run the party now. How else could Tory MPs get away with being signed up to BOO?
So, 1992 - 5 years more Government, but 50+ Tory troublemakers who rendered their party unelectable for a generation.
Cartoons on BBC Parliament? That's a damn sight more grown-up than the proceedings they cover when Parliament's in session!
ReplyDelete48 hours beforehand the '92 GE, I predicted the Tory seats - to within 2 of the final result. People almost tried to Section me!
ReplyDeleteIt was based on my own detailed review of all seats - and the notion that people would look over the edge, but would pull back from idea of putting Kinnock in Downing Street.
Just so you know. I remember I was in the Savoy when the Basildon result came through. How we whooped and hollared!
If you see a young geek jumping for joy at the Portsmouth South Result (David Martin Conservative Majority of 205) you know its me.
ReplyDelete15 years ago to the day since the last Tory Election victory under John Major.
How time goes by!
Just seen Ken Livingstone being interviewed and saying how the labour party should have mentioned constraints on the overseas movement of capital.
ReplyDeleteIs he any relation to the other Ken Livingstone the Mayor of London who wants to build as many skyscrapers as possible and ensure that London is a key financial centre?
PS Meeting in Sheffield bring flags and over optism....
It is on freeview. I have just watched it for the first time. I was too busy with the recount on the night in question.
ReplyDeletePT
Not a good night for some of us!
ReplyDeleteSteppenwolff
ReplyDeleteITN - got the result right but the BBC and ITM shared their poll results before the 10pm announcement. The BBC results were so off beam that they influenced ITN into changing their prediction from a "small Conservative majority" to a "hung parliament".
Sky of course didn'y exist in 1992.
sky did exist in 1992. their poll was worse than the bbc's
ReplyDeletei keep feeling that the broadcast is live so much has stayed the same... Dimbleby, Bremner, etc.
ReplyDeleteIt isn't until you see those who have left us, John Smith, Alan Clark, Robin Cook and the tragic Jill Dando that it hits you.
Anonymous 4.16
ReplyDelete- Couldn't disagree more
John Major was totally incompetent and unsuitable for high office - he bought the defeat on himself:
1.he unleashed the left-wing BBC dogs of war on himself ON THE FIRST DAY (11th April 2002) of his new parliament by turning up on the Today programe to announce that "the BBC is safe with us".
Thus giving them complete cart blanch to set the agenda about a "Tory Government ripped apart by the issue of Europe and corruption" day in day out for 5 years.
2. He wobbled on golden Wednesday when sterling left the ERM and turned a golden opportunity into a total own goal on the UK economy. This has continued to this day and lost the "safe economic hands" tag that the Conservative party enjoyed since the war and accounts for 1-2 million right wing "stay at home" voters.
3.He failed to prevent the Boundary Commission from coming up with a formula that actually helped the Labour party, despite a continued population shift away from city-center constituencies.
In turn the media has spun out the repercussions of his failures as indicating that the Conservatives are "too right wing".
Now we're lumbered with "hard hat and bicycle".
Yep you are correct Sky news started in '89.
ReplyDeleteI just don't recall ever seeing a Sky exit poll.
Indeed didn't they share their exit poll prediction with the BBC in 2005?
I only saw snatches of it but it certainly was fascinating - particularly the bit where a young Tony Blair popped up to say that Labour needed to change more before it could win again. Say what you like, the man is a superb political strategist.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone know if it's possible to download the whole thing and watch it again? Some of us have partners who, for some strange reason, won't allow us to spend the entire day watching 15-year-old election coverage on the internet...
Ah, David Amess... the chicken runner.
ReplyDeleteQuestion is, will Basildon continue to be the political barometer it was? Your thoughts Iain?
Tone made me do it - he's a bad influence:
ReplyDeleteHow did John Major bring defeat on himself? Point 1 and 3 are irrelevant, point 2 marks you out as one of the Tory idiots who got the party into so much trouble as it was - which rather proves my point.
My lasting memory of that election is simply how much (love him or hate him you have) to admire John Major. He started off being egged and having food thrown at him. Yet by the end he had won the election by refusing to give up and for fighting for what he believed in (whether you agree or not with what he believed it is noble to keep going when you think others disagree with you)
ReplyDelete