We all know that The Sun has a special phoneline into Number Ten. So tomorrow's Sun front page which says that Blair will go in May 2007 is likely to be more than informed guess. This would certainly be seen as a climbdown by Blair, who only recently said he expected to attend next year's G8.
The question is, can he hang on until May next year? My guess is that Labour MPs are in such a state of foment that they will try their level best to force him out earlier. What no one seems to have worked out is if there is a formal mechanism for doing so. Or will it be the kind of war of attrition that Conservative MPs conducted against Iain Duncan Smith? My bet is on the latter.
UPDATE: The Sun now says that he will quit on 31 May 2007, triggering a leadership contest. A new leader would be in place on July 26th, thirteen years almost to the day since he became leader of the Labour Party.
That was always going to be his preference after the second victory, but it will be 10 years and a day I reckon. Can he hang on? It will be a straight fight between - "get shot of him now and save the party" and "give the man his dying wish", templered perhaps with "Doomed! Doomed! we're all Domeed!" As Tony's Follies just refuse to go away. And why should they? It was a Labour Government that committed them, not just one mad Prime Minister.
ReplyDeleteLabour candidates for council, Welsh Assembly or Scottish Parliament elections in May must be worried about their chances if Blair's still in post then. Also, if an election for a replacement was due around that time it would turn the elections into a pretty messy time for the Party as the candidates jostled for support.
ReplyDeleteI guess campaigning begins tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteI have been saying ever since the election that Blair would go during autumn 2006.
ReplyDeleteI predict GB to say something ambiguous tomorrow; or at the least by the end of the week.
With that it is curtains for Blair.
There is not a single strand of opinion in the Labour party outside of the government/cabinet that supports him. In fact he is actively loathed by well over a majority of what is left of the party.
When one considers that Maggie was loved by a large majority of Tories and was still ousted. Then it is possible to realise how precarious Blair's position is.
He will make a resignation announcement this week or next I predict.
Let's all hope I am right!
Kate is spot on. We can not, and will not, go in to the May elections not knowing who the Leader is. If you are a betting person, pay absolutely no attention to what Iain or Murdoch are saying.
ReplyDeleteWatch the profile of Alan Johnson zoom up the radar screen. The stop Brown candidate.
ReplyDeleteNow he has moved his position and declared his hand to his soon-to-be employer (Murdoch), the Labour MPs campaign to pull the date from May 31 07...why not earlier? Why hang on for the best part of another year? What does he hope to achieve with NuLab in forment and the government in paralysis? Why not go now?
ReplyDeleteI think the big question is not when he will go, but what on Earth will happen when he does go!
ReplyDeleteI think Labour will fall apart, in some ways this will be a good thing, but what on Earth will happen to the Country (or England more to the point)?
Who will challenge Brown? Will any of the 'blairites' challenge Brown? Will we end up charging full steam ahead towards the slap-on-the-wrist-stalinist dream of the back-benches?
And the biggest question has to be: Will Blair let Prescott accompany him on his farewell tour, or will Prescott have his own bash?
Personally when Prescott goes I think we should all take the day off work and have a huge party in the streets to celebrate!
The May elections will allow the logical consequences of devolution to play themselves out on the political stage -- the final throes of Blairism. Apart from trashing this country's international reputation, Blair is leaving us with a country increasingly cleaved along ethnic, national and religious lines. He has replaced hope with fear. The poorest have not been helped significantly or efficiently, nor the most corrupt hindered effectively or conclusively. The billions wasted on ill-thought through and incompetent iniitiatives will compromise the country's future choices, and chances. Blair threw away the chance to use a substantial mandate to effect positive change in favour of self-aggrandizement on a scale that would make Ozymandis green with envy. It started with Bernie Ecclestone, and will close just as ingloriously. Under the circumstances, forgive my absence from his triumphal progress across Britain. Yesterday was already too late for him to leave.
ReplyDeleteAre we going to have 'Tony Blair - The Musical'?
ReplyDeleteWonder what it's like inside der fuhrer's bunker. Studied normality? Wailing and gnashing? Ears up against the wall for the sound of champagne corks from next door?
ReplyDeleteGood coverage, Iain. Keep it up.
Don't believe a word of it. We've had these dates before - I think the Independent on Sunday went for 31 July 2007 a while back.
ReplyDeleteReally... what does it matter? The only reason I would want Blair out is so we can start talking about something else... like how we wish we had him back?
Iain, a little ditty!
ReplyDelete"I’m going Friday" (To the tune of ‘My Way’ – apologies to the memory of Frank Sinatra)
And now, the end is near,
I’m off to face my final conference.
The time has come, the time is now
To which Brown has oft made reference
But I’ve made a mint, and so’s the wife
So now it’s time to hit the highway
But I’m sad to say, it’s not my choice
I’m going Friday!
Regrets, I have a few
Like when I gave back the check to Bernie
And that, I didn’t know
There would be a time
When the mob would spurn me!
But in the end, when all is done
And I find, the job’s no longer fun
And I can ponce a house that’s in the sun
I’ll pack my bags, I’ll see the queen,
I’ll do it Friday!
Yes there were times, I pissed of the hordes
By selling seats in the house of Lord’s
But in it all, I did my best,
To get rich quick, and feather my nest
I don’t give a toss, I hate you all
I’m going Friday!
And when I’m gone, no longer here
And Browns the boss, and full of cheer
You’ll miss my smile, my warm embrace
You’ll miss my spin, and handsome face
You’ll want me back, You’ll want me back…..
On Monday
Presumably G8 is in early July so if Sun dates are real then he gets to go there for the final date on the Bye Bye Blair Bonanza Tour.
ReplyDeleteLabour MUST remove Blair, Now!
ReplyDeleteThey really should have kicked him out when it was obvious he lied to Parliament (and the country) about the motivation for Iraq.
He and they will never be forgiven for that.
Boot him out, elect who they like as interim leader and do something unusual for Labour - the RIGHT thing and hold a general election.
They really can't claim a mandate after getting (what was it) about 35% of votes when only 60% voted anyway.
That said, best result Labour are going to see for some time to come.
Come on Cameron - show these people a bit of class.
Carl
Iain - I am in total accordance with Nell. The idea of coloured banners was very chic and cool, but as with all these ideas, it only takes one tiny step of an ant to go over the top. These madly rotating colours are not a good idea,Iain. They look tawdry when used thus.
ReplyDeleteAnd you've added too many for more overkill. It's a very, very stylish banner, but really, there's only an ankle bracelet between chic and slag.
Agree with Bob Piper. Pay no attention to Murdoch. My oft-repeated guess: end of September. Pushed or shoved - don't know and don't care as long as I get my Schädenfreude.
anyone-but-blair - Agreed. I don't think he'll hang around as the dying swan - not once he understands there is no hope and the dying swan does, actually, die. Or, let me put this another way: I don't think the party will let him.
seeking-exit-strategies - You are brilliant. This is the best post I have seen on this.
Adrian,
ReplyDeleteShame Spitting Image isn't around (your superb lyrics being just one of the reasons). God, what fun they would have had with this shower.
So Tony has given Murdoch the scoop of 31st May 2007 - must be true, how could he lie to his future employer? But the Labour Party is going to die from a thousand cuts in the meantime. Blair will have no authority, no patronage to dispense. There'll be rivers of blood.
And staying until after the May elections? Political lunacy... Great for turnout though - "only 30 days left to give the Twat a good kicking! Hurry, hurry! Vote early, vote often..."
If saner voices prevail, he's gone by Christmas.
He will be gone by the end of this month...
ReplyDeleteCall me an old cynic, but I'm convinced that every paragraph written and every pundit's comment takes up space which is then not available for debating real issues.
ReplyDeleteBlair's 'departure date' is dragged up every time another soldier dies, another patient gets worse, pension funds are raided to pay for "assistant council outreach coordinators", etc. etc.
Is there a technical term for suddenly relising that you are disliked, not believed and not wanted any more? My old English master used to say the "dying is the most embarrassing event of your life".
Now I'm not so sure.
Tony will be gone before May 31. The party can't allow him to struggle on until then.
ReplyDelete2007 marks 25 years since the Argentinian invasion of the Falklands.
ReplyDeleteMay 25th is their National Day.
If I were Nestor Kirchner, I'd be ringing 25th May 2007 on my calendar.
and, given the electoral process in NuLab, will ensure he can fulfill his promise to attend the next G8 summit in July, where he and the Bush can yo-yo together. God help us all.
ReplyDeleteI heard from a reliable source that he will announce that he is standing down on the 31st September 2006
ReplyDeleteI seriously doubt that Blair will go work for Murdoch.
ReplyDeleteAnd Murdoch has said in public, in so many words, when they last met 2 or 3 months ago, how close he feels to Brown, observing how they are both 'Calvinists' (that's the word he used) one a son of the Scottish manse, the other a grandson of the Scottish manse.
Here's the way I see it playing out:
(1) Blair has such a rocky conference later this month -- booed off the stage would be nice(g) -- followed by his interview under caution by Yates of the Yard, that he'll be gone by the end of October.
(2) Let's not kid ourselves, there are no other serious candidates... Brown will walk it into 10 Downing Street.
(3) Opinion polls always show poor support for people who are not yet party leaders, so let's not kid ourselves again... Brown (and Labour) will take a huge 'honeymoon' poll lead as new PM.
(4) He may well be tempted to call a snap spring election 'to get his own mandate' and there would probably be a large Labour majority.
(5) Encouraging Brown in the snap spring election strategy will be the chaotic/irrelevant/contradictory/absence-of-policies-that-make-sense in the Cameron/Tory camp, which I fear it's far too late to sort out over the next six months, and that could be all the time young Dave has.
(6) Anyone who thinks Brown is an Old Labour chump obviously don't know the realities.
--In the first place he is the co-author of 'New Labour'; probably the main author in fact, because,
--In the second place, he's far more intelligent that Blair. He can probably leave Cameron behind in the intellectual dust too. Think of it this way: seriously brainy Scot versus upper class twit from Eton.
The race is not always to the swift nor the battle to the strong (after all David smote Goliath) but that's the way to bet.
Bush wants Blair in place another year to keep the wars going. The EU wants Prescott to finish the regionalisation power grab. Labour MP's, MSP's, MWP's, Councillors etc are just pawns in the game - even Blair himself. There is no power exercised in Britain.
ReplyDeleteThe First Post Mole thinks he'll be out by Christmas. He makes a good argument. Why would the Labour party want to take the kicking they are otherwise going to get in celtic regional elections ?
ReplyDeleteBut I've always through Blair is holding on because he has to. Something is hidden away that he's protecting. I would expect to see him in court or even the Hague after he's deposed.
mirthios' comments of Argentina really must be taken serriously. Nuclear hunter killer subs for the South Atlantic at that time. Our Military overstretch will have been noted in BA - political crisis on top may be too tempting.
Please sit back now, all, and take a deep breath. So? Better now? This is the man everybody loves to call Bliar. Why does anybody believe anything whatsoever he says, or the spinmeisters leak? Including about his departure?
ReplyDeleteAs I have said before, he is not leaving until it suits his future money-earning prospects. Being forced out will not suit those prospects. Therefore, if he can calm things down by announcing that he will leave on day X, why not do so? It's not as if he needs to stand by that or any other word...
Be prepared for an announcement of some "settled, orderly hand-over". It has been promised for long enough. But don't expect it to be put into practice!
tapestry, I've got to ask:
ReplyDeleteIf there is no power exercised in Britain, how will keeping Blair in place make a blind bit of difference to Bush 'keeping the wars going?'
And if the EU wants Prescott to 'finish the regionalisation power grab', at his present rate of knots on this, it should take two or three centuries... don't hold your breath. In any case, if there's power exercised in Britain, why should the EU or anyone else bother or care about this topic?
----
Do you normally go through life thinking and talking in flat contradictions like this?
If Blair goes before "serving a full term" we are entitled to demand and get a GE.
ReplyDeleteVerity - I think it might just be this September the way things are going!
ReplyDeleteGood Call!
I really can't wait. It's roughly 11.30am and I'm contemplating opening the Vodka! Lets hope others like Tom Watson follow him and also resign.
I think he would be wise to make the noble sacrifice of going in April. At a funeral nobody speaks ill of the dead & if he quit then it would be worth a 3 or 4% swing in the Scottish & Welsh votes for which labour would forgive him a lot. Remember Thatcher's last Commons outing where she really did enjoy herself & even her worst enemies praised her. If nothing were to become his leadership like the leaving of it at least that would be something.
ReplyDeleteI don't think he will do that unless he manages to achieve the improbable triumph mentioned yesterday.
Possible theory why the Sun's date could be guesswork, despite their usual reliability:
ReplyDeleteYesterday's memo was leaked to the Mirror because of how badly the Times' Big Interview with Tony backfired (thanks to its deliberate 'Blair defies Party' couching by Webster/Riddell).
The Sun, now scrambling to get back on top of the story, guess a date which sounds sensible/Blair-logical, but to which they will never be held, whatever Blair's eventual departure date.
On betfair - it is something like 42 to 1 that blair will be gone in september.
ReplyDeleteAt the risk of sounding like a shady tipster; I'd call that a 'value' punt!
Wake up Iain! another junior minister has resigned!! Everything falling apart! We may get a Blair free xmas.Wonderful!!
ReplyDeleteListening to the World at One (R4) its seems they were given a pistol and a bottle of whisky by Mrs chief whip. Bit too late to sound principled now - anyway if they had principals they wouldn't have been NuLabour ministers would they ?
ReplyDeleteBlair is a shameless survivor and his party has been happy to go along with his lack of decency when it kept the pork flowing in to the professional politicians. What's different this time is they think they may lose their comfortable government guaranteed pensions and have to earn a living outside. This is the key difference this time and they will become as ruthless as they have been unprincipled in protecting their interests.
This analysis of terminal decline of NuLab may be of interest. It is a devastating critique. Ross McKibbin is Professor of History at St John's College Oxford.
ReplyDeletewww.lrb.co.uk/contribhome.php?get=mckidi-16K-4sep2006
The article is in the current issue of London Review of Books.
Bob Piper may have something to add after his own review of the article
I can't believe everybody's being so gullible. This 31 May date is just another Blairite scam. It's completely unavowable so if (by some miracle) Blair becomes more popular, he'll find some other excuse to put it off. If he carries on getting more unpopular by the day, at least he's bought himself more time that he would otherwise have.
ReplyDeleteLeaking 31 May is no more believable - or significant - than Maggie saying she's going on and on. (But at least Maggie said it without the intention to deceive.)
If I was a Labour member, I'd be agitating for starting the leadership process immediately. Any delay simply means having to do it later anyway and with even less favourable opinion polls.
The price on a september fall for Blair on Betfair is now 10 to 1. I would like to think that is because the visitors to this site have cleaned up.
ReplyDeleteThe significant thing about all these developments is that the bbc and other neutral commentators are openly questioning whether he can 'hang-on'- literally - the media equivalent of a vote of confidence.
If blair were a football manager - he would be reeling from 10 consecutive defeats and fresh from a vote of confidence with the fans desperate to see him go. Oh and with a much better qualified candidate ready to step in straight away.
I really can not see september finishing without there being a leadership contest underway.
p.s.
Has anyone heard from GB - i stand by my prediction he will make an ambiguous comment.
Oh the joy, the utter joy of it.
ReplyDeleteThe rats are fleeing the sinking ship faster than the fleas from a dead dog.
5 PPS's today looks to me like it's a deliberate attempt to flummox verity here, since the way things are shaping up he might even be gone by the weekend unless he does something desperate to stem the flow.
We just need a key player now to strike the killing blow and the epic will be complete.
I don't think I'll need a birthday present from anyne this year as this should more than suffice.
I'd say Blair's survival as PM as far the Labour conference now seems highly improbable.
ReplyDeleteHe may not even last this week. No PM can withstand a meltdown like this for long. I think we have passed the tipping point and events will now move fast. Probably very fast.
Rejoice! Rejoice! Rejoice!
Permex - Eeek! I've been under a lifetime illusion that Schadenfreude had an umlaut! It just looks, well, meaner, more deliberate with an umlaut, but I assure you I will spell it properly from now on. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteWhat's all the shouting about? Let’s face it - he isn’t going anytime soon. I've been hear before, I get my hopes up and the thick skinned liar does the dishonorable thing and stays put. What Twattery!
ReplyDeleteWhat I don't understand is why he wants to sack someone for expressing their opinion in a democratic way. This is a democracy and not Bliars misguided sense of dictatorship.
Give the man a sun tan and tache and call him Saddam!
How dare he scream disloyalty and discourtesy? It's disloyal, discourteous and corrupt to:
1 Send us to war on a bollocks lie
2 Sign a report for auction
3 Send troops to war with little
or no equipment
4 Have two shags, ten bellies rake
off us all
..and the list goes on.
We've been shafted 7 ways to Sunday by this bastard and his corrupt cronies. So much so my arse hurts!
I could do with anusol but then again so could Bliar for his gob!
Adrian - Glad you're alive and well.
ReplyDeleteYou might not need to pursue anything with this going off.
Why don't you email Bliar and thank him for making it easy for you and the rest of us by his constant fuck ups.
In fact, attach one of those clapping chav wavs with the mail. He'll appreciate that.