That little mix in the bottom left didn't do very well in Frank Luntz's focus group on Newsnight last night. Quite what people saw in John Reid that they didn't see in Johnson is anyone's guess. I suppose a certain sort of person likes John Reid's 'hard bastard' image, but I don't think that is enough to get him the top job in the long term. My money is still on Alan Johnson emerging as the main challenger to Brown, with Hain making the running for Deputy. As for Harriet Harman, well, you've got to laugh, haven't you? Graphic courtesy of the new blog at Disillusioned & Bored. No idea who is behind it, but it started its first post a few days ago with the words I HATE IAIN DALE, so it can't be all bad.
Not sure how genuine that blog is - looks like a plant to me. About as authentic as a letter to a local newspaper praising the government at election time.
ReplyDeleteShould be Disillusioned & Bored, but fascinated with pro-Blair NuLabour politics - sound like any Burnley supporters you know ?
Have you considered Jeffrey Archer? His blog - http://jeffreyarchers.blogspot.com/ - suggests to me that he is drifting to the left and who can doubt his immense popularity?
ReplyDeleteAlan Johnson was said to be one of Tony Blair's favourite union bosses when he was general-secretary of the merged communication-workers' union. He is pure Blairite.
ReplyDeleteThen again, John Reid has said he believes Blairism to be the 'successor-ideology' to Bevanism. If Reid runs against Johnson, the Blairites may well be split.
In the end, I think it will come down (perhaps unfortunately) to the fact that Reid is too Scottish, and won't appeal to the voters of middle-England.
who is the ugly bird in the white dress?
ReplyDeleteI got £50 on Alan each way so I hope that you are right.
ReplyDeletePS. Have cunning idea for 2 minute reportage seg on 18DS - see blog.
Frank Luntz's focus group was passable TV but scientific it was not.
ReplyDeleteYou can hardly call a huddle of thirty voters a representative sample. And when he wasn't putting words in their mouths he was showing them selected, craftily edited clips.
Net result was that they didn't know what to make of anyone - except Brown of course. They all 'knew' they hated him really.
Which was the whole point of the exercise (wasn't it Frank?).
not sure how representative that focus group was given that ex GJW and Weber Shandwick lobbyist Nick Wright was centre stage and leading the debate.
ReplyDeleteAll I can tell you is that it is a genuine blog and that I am not Jeffrey Archer. I am having fun though and hope you all return to the blog sometime.
ReplyDeleteRe the Frank Luntz piece on Newsnight, I was amazed at the political ignorance of the group; on the other hand I suppose it is representative of the electorate.
ReplyDeleteI think there's a major problem with the luntz process. John Reid was taking tough on terrorism and crime, he was always going to get a boost for that.
ReplyDeleteJohnson won't come into the contest unless Reid does. Basically, Johnson does not really see himself as a Blairite, and certainly doesn't see himself as a "Stop Gordon" candidate. But that's exactly what he would be perceived to be if he came in on his own against Brown.
ReplyDeleteErgo, Johnson will let Reid run as the continuity candidate, and then come in himself as the "third force," neither Blairite nor Brownite but "Real Labour." His problem is lack of public recognition, and also lack of supoport among the unions. Mike Smithson already appears to have written off his chances on the basis of the Luntz survey on Newsnight.
For my part, I am becoming increasingly convinced that the real battles are shaping up to be Reid v Brown for premier, Johnson v Hain for deputy. But if Blair does anoint Brown at the last minute - still possible in my view on the basis of yesterday's speech - then it could yet be a coronation.
Not convinced about the soundness of the Luntz methodology. Starting with the photos, Reid was the only one given a full figure portrait, Brown was distracted looking away from the camera, the others were passport mugshots. As for the clips, well anybody representing an authority figure talking about London terrorism is going to walk it. Got to have parity in topicality of clips.
ReplyDeleteJust got up to speed on Disillusioned & Bored. Don't know who's behind it either, but am fancying thinking it's some sexy bird who types it in her underdrawers...
ReplyDeleteI think the blog is genuine, if a bit puerile. Doesn't seem overly NuLabour-friendly to me--potentially a good read now and again for Tories such as myself.
ReplyDelete