Thursday, July 13, 2006
BREAKING NEWS: Folkestone Tories Select A Lister
Damian Collins has just been selected to succeed Michael Howard in Folkestone & Hythe. He beat Laura Sandys and Harriett Baldwin. I'm told he made a truly excellent presentation. So East Kent is now dominated by Damians (Damian Green is in neighbouring Ashford). I wonder if this is an Omen. (yes, very weak joke, I know).
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12 comments:
which one was that - the failed rock star or the transsexual underwear model?
Both!
Do we have a trend here? Two women and one man on the short list and, surprise, the man is selected?
rather good joke actually, iain.
That must be very good news for Mr Cameron after what happened in Bromley.
The Wimmin fail 2 win again!!
Blue2Win. I don't think there's a conspiracy there. In this case (if I've understood everything correctly) it means that some members who voted Laura Sandys on first stage voted for Collins when he was in the final 2 against Harriet Baldwin.
There seems to be a theory doing the rounds that, in a situation where (let's say) the final 3 candidates for selection are two women and a man, whatever 'pro-female' vote their might be is somehow split between the two women, thus allowing the man to win.
In fact, if the final selection is by Extraordianry General Meeting, this shouldn't happen because the successful candidate is required to win more than 50% of the valid votes cast. In my example, if no-one exceeded 50% on the first ballot, then the candidate coming third would be eliminated and there would be a second ballot between the remaining two candidates. Thus, even if the vote were split between the two females on the first ballot, the second ballot would then be a male/female 'head to head'. (I imagine a similar rule applies where a primary is used.)
Of course, where there are 3 candidates initially who are not all of the same gender, it could be argued that the mechanism tends to favour the 'minority' gender candidate getting through the first ballot. (Assuming, of course - perhaps wrongly - that a significant proportion of the votes are in some way gender-based.)
There could also be more subtle effects. If, for the sake of argument, the man did slightly better than either of the women in the first ballot then some of the third candidate's votes might transfer to the man on the second ballot simply because he seemed to be the most popular candidate.
Is he a white, upper middle class, middle-aged, Oxbridge A-Lister?
I don't think Damian is Oxbridge.
Only vaguely related, but in the Mail's Richard Kay column today there's a 'story' about Steve Hilton wearing no shoes to a meeting in Dave's office. There followed an 'hilarious' exchange between Hilton and guest Derek Laud, which is too tedious to repeat. Anyway, 'story' clearly placed by Laud. Is he inviting us to draw conclusions about his future?
Any chance of deselecting Brazier over here in Canterbury?
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