Firstly, congratulations to Willie Rennie (despite his particualrly ungracious victory speech). There's no doubt about it, the LibDems scored a dramatic victory last night in the Dunfermline by-election. I don't think even they were expecting it until possibly the last minute. It is doubly astonishing given the terrible press they have had over the last month. I have to admit I didn't give them a prayer. In fact, they are the only people to have emerged from it well. The SNP normally do very well in by-elections during Labour governments, but the existence of the Scottish Parliament has rather spiked their guns. The big loser was undoubtedly Gordon Brown. There will be some on the Labour benches who think, well if we can't win in Gordon's back yard can we win in mine with him as leader? I also wouldn't want to be Tony Blair this weekend when he makes his speech to the Labour Spring conference in Blackpool. So what does it mean for the Conservatives? Well, for the vote to go down from 10% to 7.8% isn't good and is probably explained in part by the controversy over the local candidate and Council group leader Stuart Randall not even making the selection shortlist. I don't think many of us expected the Cameron effect to sweep the electorate in Dunfermline, but for those who believe that everything is suddenly rosy in the Conservative garden, it will have been a bit of a shock. Personally, I don't think much can be read into it. The LibDems are past masters at persuading all those who don't like Labour that they are the only ones who can defeat them and I suspect that this accounts for part of the reduction in the Tory vote. But let's not kid ourselves. The Conservatives need to think about what will happen if there's a by-election in a Labour marginal in a rural area. Just how do they convince the electorate that it is they who are best placed to oust Labour, rather than the LibDems? To be frank, we haven't fought a good by-election campaign since, well, I honestly can't remember. I understand a special by-election unit was set up recently. I hope it is going to be given the campaigning resources it will need, because although we all say by-elections don't matter, the way they are fought sends out important signals to party workers about how the Party is geared up to fight a national election. It's important that when the next by-election occurs in an English seat with a good Conservative vote, the Party is fully prepared to fight it.
Friday, February 10, 2006
What Does the LibDem By-Election Victory Mean?
Firstly, congratulations to Willie Rennie (despite his particualrly ungracious victory speech). There's no doubt about it, the LibDems scored a dramatic victory last night in the Dunfermline by-election. I don't think even they were expecting it until possibly the last minute. It is doubly astonishing given the terrible press they have had over the last month. I have to admit I didn't give them a prayer. In fact, they are the only people to have emerged from it well. The SNP normally do very well in by-elections during Labour governments, but the existence of the Scottish Parliament has rather spiked their guns. The big loser was undoubtedly Gordon Brown. There will be some on the Labour benches who think, well if we can't win in Gordon's back yard can we win in mine with him as leader? I also wouldn't want to be Tony Blair this weekend when he makes his speech to the Labour Spring conference in Blackpool. So what does it mean for the Conservatives? Well, for the vote to go down from 10% to 7.8% isn't good and is probably explained in part by the controversy over the local candidate and Council group leader Stuart Randall not even making the selection shortlist. I don't think many of us expected the Cameron effect to sweep the electorate in Dunfermline, but for those who believe that everything is suddenly rosy in the Conservative garden, it will have been a bit of a shock. Personally, I don't think much can be read into it. The LibDems are past masters at persuading all those who don't like Labour that they are the only ones who can defeat them and I suspect that this accounts for part of the reduction in the Tory vote. But let's not kid ourselves. The Conservatives need to think about what will happen if there's a by-election in a Labour marginal in a rural area. Just how do they convince the electorate that it is they who are best placed to oust Labour, rather than the LibDems? To be frank, we haven't fought a good by-election campaign since, well, I honestly can't remember. I understand a special by-election unit was set up recently. I hope it is going to be given the campaigning resources it will need, because although we all say by-elections don't matter, the way they are fought sends out important signals to party workers about how the Party is geared up to fight a national election. It's important that when the next by-election occurs in an English seat with a good Conservative vote, the Party is fully prepared to fight it.
It's a shame for the Tories as Carrie Ruxton was a good candidate. In the only televised hustings during the campaign Carrie and Catherine Stihler came across as the most clued up, intelligent people that you would be proud of to have as an MP. As for Willie Rennie, well he's not going to set the Commons alight is he?
ReplyDeleteClearly many of the Socialist Labour voters attracted to the Lib Dems. Just listening to Question Time last night, it's obvious just how in favour of wealth redistribution the Lib Dems really are.
ReplyDeleteIs it true that the Tory candidate is a relative of 1980s animated bear, Teddy Ruxpin?
ReplyDeleteRennie will last a few years in the Commons but I believe Labour will re-take this seat come 2009. However, short term it puts the pressure on because Blair's majority is down to 64 (think Schools Vote!). Rennie will join the ranks of annonymous LibDem MPs who say nothing and do nothing of any value or importance.
ReplyDeleteI don't think this result is particularly significant for us. If anything, it shows just how deep the disaffection for the Labour government is in their heartlands and suggests less enthusiasm for Brown than has been hitherto assumed. This should mean the next election is very tight and simply reinforces my view that we are going to get a hung parliament. The number of Con/Lib seats we win will thus become crucial. in that context, its disappointing to see the Liberals do better, but I can't see them increasing their vote in middle England
ReplyDeleteIain,
ReplyDeleteWeren't you complaining the otehr day that the former chief whip spent too much time trying to get people along to by-elections?
Rennie has practically an entire term to secure his future in his constituency. He's a former campaigns officer for the party, so he knows exactly what to do to keep his seat safe. I'm suprised that people aren't more impressed with him. We haven't had a candidate this good since Sarah Teather.
ReplyDeleteMike, yes I was. And nowhere do I suggest that we should so so again! I hardly think that a bunch of MPs appearing on people's doorsteps is the answer to by-election campaigning! Do you?
ReplyDelete"We haven't had a candidate this good since Sarah Teather."
ReplyDeleteNiles - Please...........good at precisely what - shafting leaders in the back?
You have spent too long taking in the Scottish air and come back to where the next general Election will be won or lost!
Willie Rennie is an extremely shrewd operator and I do not expect him to lose that one in a hurry. A good little tip to Iain and others is that getting elected and staying elected isn't about being a natural performer but about "getting it".
ReplyDeleteThis is a major defeat for Labour and the Tories can take considerable comfort from that. But their inability to hit the winning formula in by-elections never ceases to amaze. They swung from not bothering at Brent, to dreadful "granny's kitchen table" efforts at Leicester, to personal assaults at Cheadle, to vacuous glossy nonsense at Dunfermline (Cameron's first effort naturally).
How hard should it be? Find two good local issues and campaign on them. Find a credible candidate - nothing special just a solid everyman. Do a barchart. Produce leaflets that are bold, bright and have loads of local people on them waving banners. Say only the Tories scare Labour because nobody else can form a government. Don't just send MPs up there - make it an event for younger supporters and make it fun. You haven't got a by-election genius like Rennard but it isn't difficult to get the basics right at least.
Sarah Teather? I always look for the strings working her when I see her on TV.She is dreadful.
ReplyDeleteAs for the result , a 16% swing isn't quite as impressive as Brent East or Leicester South if I'm not mistaken.Lib Dems,by elections,summer,swallow.....as ever
Kevin, you're another one who just doesn't "get it". It doesn't matter that Sarah Teather is a chubby lass who is hardly Churchillian when she opens her mouth. It doesn't matter that she (like most of her colleagues) wanted Kennedy to go in the end. She is jolly, likeable, energetic, capable gets in the local press and people feel good about voting for her.
ReplyDeleteA "rurul" area? Ye gods. You'll be frothing at the mouth about "libruls" next, just like the Yanks.
ReplyDeleteAs Dylan Thomas put it (in a slightly different contxt): "It all means - nothing at all"
ReplyDeleteWhat does it mean? It means we live in a three-party system. Get used to it, Messrs Cameron, Blair and Brown.
ReplyDeleteWhat is the woman on the left doing in that picture??
ReplyDeleteMore to the point, is there someone down below who we can't see?!
ReplyDeleteThe swing isn't quite as big as Brent but it was only a short campaign.
ReplyDeleteThe Lib Dems had months to get stuck in in Brent before the actual campaign.
The best part of this result for the Lib Dems is that they have shown that their support on the ground is not reliant on a particualr leader.
While Labour and the Tories have nothing to smile about, it strikes me that it is the Nats who are the real losers. Given the coincidence of the start of this campaign and the Lib Dem troubles they really should have established themselves as the challengers and run Labour close.
Iain - I *think* that Rennie and his cohorts were expecting it. I got e-mail after e-mail telling me that he felt that he was winning judging by the public response and the way Labour was reacting to the Lib Dem campaign (extra phone calls to constituents just before the election to shore up their vote). I didn't believe them and thought that they were just talking big, but certainly they were saying that they thought they were ahead.
ReplyDeleteOh dear. "Unexpected" etc etc etc. Iain, for weeks now you have been going on about the Cameron effect and today we see the effect in the polls, granted it was Scotland, but who says a 16% swing to the Lib Dems isn't significant?
ReplyDeleteWhat effect has Cameron had? Zero. He's another IDS, another Vague.
Until you Tories start acting like Tories you won't win a single vote.
As for the Lib Dems, ONCE AGAIN I say no publicity is bad publicity. £10 on Hughes winning...
Oh come on LibDem member, I've been looking at LibDem blogs today and very few expected to win. And where did I say it was 'insignificant'? I think I have bent over backwards to be objective in my analysis - I hardly said it was a good result for the Tories, did I?! And if you are really so complacent to think that Cameron is another IDS then God help you. You couldn't be further from the truth
ReplyDeleteIt is all very well the Tories saying this is just another by-election. Of course it does not mean the Libs are heading for Government but it has given them some credibility at a time when they really needed it. What the Tory HQ fail to recognise time and again is that winning by-elections gives the Libs credibility they do not really merit & damages our own. It makes them appear a genuine 3rd party on the same footing as the Labour party & the Cons. They are not. Stop them winning by-elections and people might twig that.
ReplyDeleteMoreover Iain himself reveals why senior Tories just don't understand by-elections. Liberals win becuase they put hundreds of troops on the ground & fight hard on local issues with a solid local (yes, dull) candidate. We insist on blowing every campaign by:
a) Parachuting in outsiders as candidates & pissing off the local party. Who cares whether thev candidate is a great speaker/looks good on telly/etc. The best Tory by election candidate in recent years was that dull bloke with a beard from Uxbridge (?). Of course he has disappeared without a trace but he was an ideal "local worthy" candidate for a by-election & his triumph was just want the National party needed. Glamorous outsiders in the Dave mold would probably be wonderful Parliamentarians but since they are by-election no-hopers the matter is an academic one.
b) Putting out a few glossy leaflets which are not local at all. In a by-election people care about local issues - let's talk about them. Bland leaflets with pictures of the outsider candidate & Dave blathering on about national issues just won't win it.
c) Iain says sending MPs out to canvas won't help. Sure, no-one on the door step will be impressed if some dunce MP turns up and introduces himself. They do not know the bloke and will not be impressed since most people (rightly) despise politcians. Lib Dem MPs go to by-elections and just play at being footsoldiers promoting the actual candidate on the day. The MPs are there so party activists follow in huge numbers. Our MPs are not there and so neither are the activists in the numbers that are needed.
If we want to win by-elections we must not mock the Liberals but adopt their winning strategies (ok, perhaps not the dirty tricks of S Hughes, etc). That means MPs being humble enough to go up there and deliver leaflets. Just think what the feel-good factor would have been had the Tory vote gone UP in Dunfermline enough for us to have pinched 3rd place from the SNP? And how glum the Libs would have been had they failed to win and so faced more stories about post scandal meltdown?
Iain: To be frank, we haven't fought a good by-election campaign since, well, I honestly can't remember.
ReplyDeleteUxbridge, 1997 - 'New' Labour expected to romp home, but got a good thump on the nose on Blair's 100th day in power, courtesy of a good 'local' by-election campaign led by the local Association rather than by CCO, with a lot of foot-soldiering by many helpers from all over.
Hague and co. didn't even have the manners or good grace to tell the local Association when they moved the writ to have the by-election - they'd written Uxbridge off and rushed it through thinking it'd be a Tory loss. More fool them.