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Sunday, January 15, 2006
The Cameron Effect Starts to Show
Gladdens the heart, doesn't it? Source: ICM poll for the News of the World
Labour polled over 40% in opinion polls between 1983 and 1987 with a new young reforming leader. He still got one of the worst results in the party's history when it came to the election. There is a long long way to polling day.
James, I know what you mean, but Populus have been rather discredited ever since their DD poll (which I remember well!) and who's ever heard of BPIX? YouGOv and ICM seem to be the most accuaret and trustworthy.
Populus weren't discredited by their DD poll, the Times was! It was the newspaper rather than polling company who spun the headline out. The polling company themselves are perfectly creditable, with their evce of general election poll being pretty much on the button, for example.
Humph! Let's not get too excited (and I am a Tory).
The Opposition, sometimes, is up in the polls. The Governing party is more or less where it was, or slightly below its ten year average. Sound familiar? It ought to - for it's just what happened the last time the centre party collapsed.
After the 87 election, when the Alliance imploded and the SALADs took so long to emerge (they weren't free of the SDP until 90), Labour support soared.
What happened what that floating voters floated from their natural floating home (the liberals) to Labour, but only as a temporary expedient whilst the Liberals were discredited. If the Liberals recover in this parliament, we'll lose those soggy votes back to them. Just as Kinnock lost liberal 87/91 gains in 1992!!!!!
Gladdens the heart, doesn't it?
and ICM /Screws of the World polls often seem have a 'bias' towards Labour.
ReplyDelete*wanders off singing Things can only get better*
Splendid stuff. Will mean absolutely diddly if we don't make big Metropolitan gains this May, though.
ReplyDeleteLabour polled over 40% in opinion polls between 1983 and 1987 with a new young reforming leader. He still got one of the worst results in the party's history when it came to the election. There is a long long way to polling day.
ReplyDeleteThat is of course true. But after a decade of flatlining at 31-33% it is certainly a cause of optimism if you're a Tory. Which you;re obviously not!
ReplyDeleteAh but under David Davis the poll result would have been:
ReplyDeleteCon 88
Lab 10
LibDem 1
Others 1
You are of course, so right, anonymous. LOL
ReplyDeleteAs the Populus and BPIX polls show Labour with a narrow lead, I think it's wise not to get overexcited.
ReplyDeleteJames, I know what you mean, but Populus have been rather discredited ever since their DD poll (which I remember well!) and who's ever heard of BPIX? YouGOv and ICM seem to be the most accuaret and trustworthy.
ReplyDeleteWell, at least more accurate than your spelling ;)
ReplyDeleteThis poll proves that Cameron could be the Tory's Neil Kinnock rather than the Tory's Michael Foot :)
ReplyDeleteNice to see the LDs slipping again though.
Populus weren't discredited by their DD poll, the Times was! It was the newspaper rather than polling company who spun the headline out. The polling company themselves are perfectly creditable, with their evce of general election poll being pretty much on the button, for example.
ReplyDeleteAnd as for BPIX - Mail on Sunday readers!
I agree that ICM and YouGov are "best" though.
The 'others' column is about twice as large as it should be. These Conservatives and their dodgy bar charts, tsk...
ReplyDeleteanonymous, it's a NOTW graph, not a Tory one!
ReplyDeleteHumph! Let's not get too excited (and I am a Tory).
ReplyDeleteThe Opposition, sometimes, is up in the polls. The Governing party is more or less where it was, or slightly below its ten year average. Sound familiar? It ought to - for it's just what happened the last time the centre party collapsed.
After the 87 election, when the Alliance imploded and the SALADs took so long to emerge (they weren't free of the SDP until 90), Labour support soared.
What happened what that floating voters floated from their natural floating home (the liberals) to Labour, but only as a temporary expedient whilst the Liberals were discredited. If the Liberals recover in this parliament, we'll lose those soggy votes back to them. Just as Kinnock lost liberal 87/91 gains in 1992!!!!!
I wasn't aware they were still making a distinction between Labour and the Tories in polls.
ReplyDelete