Guest Post: What Scott Brown Means for America

Daniel Forrester is a good friend of mine from Washington DC. In this guest post, he analyses Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts earlier this week.

Scott Brown is the next Senator from Massachusetts. The turn of events that makes this event happen is stunning. While the pundits will suggest that this is a complete referendum on Obama, I think that is hype and not the full story. Here we have a candidate, Scott Brown, who defined himself at a time when his opponent literally went on vacation for three weeks. When something looks good to be true in America - a safe Senate seat that was a family heirloom, or even a young talented golfer with apparent super powers, then it is too good to be true. Coakley took the seat for granted.

In the end, all politics is local and there are feelings and dynamics alive in Massachusetts that are just not as national as they may seem at the surface. The symbolism of the win is what is national news - not the actually events within the race itself. This was branding and positioning 101 and the supposed winner and heir to Kennedy had no message to counter the brand.

It reminds me of Ted Kennedy's first run for President. He could never answer the question why he wanted to be President and the people never forgot. In this case the Democrat was never even asked the question as she didn't have anyone interested in asking. How sad a campaign. Clever man Mr. Brown. This early ad shows just how innovative his campaign was. The democrats laughed at him. They are not laughing now:

When the dust and the noise settles, there are some implications for Obama and his agenda and immediately around Health Care.This is a President who has tried to govern as fast as he moved during the campaign. It was former Senator Tom Daschle who told Obama to run for President when he was just in the Senate for a few minutes in 2006. Daschle actually told me once that Obama did not balk at his advice that Obama had to run as waiting even a few years would hurt him as he would be tied to votes and the inertia of being a Senator. In other words you would be tied to your experience and so we have a President with little experience but a once might brand. That mindset has been his hallmark once in power. Yet while governing, one discovers that speed can kill. Today we see that.

Remember in Massachusetts 97% of the people are insured without having Washington drive the agenda. So idea that this was a referendum on the current Senate Health bill, doesn't connect. But there is something alive in this vote that should give pause to this President as he steps on the pedal while burning through billions of dollars.

In the end, one candidate had a good and consistent message while his competitor sat the race out. Does this mean that the Republicans have a set of ideas to govern the country? Does this mean that the party is united? Does this indicate that Republicans have a central theme for 2010 and moving forward? The answer is no and or very unclear. George Bush will haunt this party for the next decade if there isn't a purge of the vapid selfish and big government thinking that has been the Republican party for the last 8 years. Republicans must realize this evening that in America they benefit as there are only two parties. America is as fed up with them as they are with Obama. If there was a meaningful third party in the US, they would wipe the floor with both parties. Reading into this event as a watershed is a big mistake.

The Daley Dozen: Thursday

1. Tory Radio questions Northern Rock giving £10 million to Newcastle United.
2. Jon Craig says the plot thickens over when the Commons Clerk learned of Damian Green's arrest.
3. Hopi Sen takes his own advice. Which clearly sticks in his throat. And understandably so.
4. Party Lines on how to get more disabled people to vote.
5. O'Conall Street becomes an MLA.
6. Vicky Ford on EU horsetrading.
7. Subrosa has a warning for Annabelle Goldie.
8. Stephen Tall on a split among LibDem MPs over an EU referendum. Jon Craig too.
9. John Redwood on plunging living standards.
10. ConHome has the names of the six people seeking to succeed Julie Kirkbride.
11. Cranmer examines the madness of Glenys Kinnock.
12. Greg Hands thinks this video from Hammersmith Green Candidate Rollo Miles is the worst campaign video ever.


Rollo Miles is the Green Party candidate for Hammersmith, up against Shaun Bailey for the Conservatives. Here is his initial offering to the electorate.

Particular highlights include the balloon suddenly floating across the screen at around 0:50 and at 6:52 the statement that "if you want the same, vote Greens" before taking some considerable time to realise that he meant the opposite!

Was THAT Poster a Success?

Stratford Conservative has written a blogpost questioning whether this poster has backfired on the Conservatives. He thinks not. I tend to agree. Any poster which is still being talked about two weeks after it first appeared has to have something going for it. Cameron dealt with the airbrushing issue with good humour and I think the fact that it has generated 74,000 new versions rather speaks for itself.

I think my only question about the poster is why did every poster say the same thing? OK, you get uniformity of message, but if there had been five or six slogans I don't think the main message would have been diluted. But then again, what do I know?

When Mo Mowlam Grabbed My Bum

I wonder if the new drama about Mo Mowlam will feature the touching photo she had taken with me and my partner at the Labour conference in Brighton in 2000. She stood in between us and placed her right hand firmly on my right buttock and her left hand on John's left buttock. She then proceeded to give each of us a butt cheek massage while a photographer took the pictures.

Or maybe they will include the moment when she walked out of Politico's, paused in the doorway, burped and then farted.

I truly think her brain tumour had eaten away at that part of the brain which controls embarrassment threshholds.

Election Night Bill Needed

Yesterday, I the Electoral Commission reported that only 325 constituencies have so far said for definite that their counts will be held on election night. 275 constituencies have yet to decide, or rather the local authority returning officers have yet to decide.

You can see the full list HERE.

In Norfolk, only two out of the nine constituencies are committed to counting on the night - Norwich South and North Norfolk. Bearing in mind the geographical size of North Norfolk, you'd have to say that if they can do it, why can't all other constituencies? Great Yarmouth is giving the lilly-livered response that they will only count on the night if there are no local elections. Funny how they managed to count during the night in 2005, when, like North Norfolk, they counted the county council elections the next day.

There really is a simple solution to this. The government should introduce a one line bill ordering all general election counts to take place immediately after the polls have closed. It would get cross party support in both Houses and deal with the issue once and for all. This is an issue of national importance. It is vital that the sovereignty of the ballot is protected. The longer a count is delayed, the more opportunity there is for mischief.

Local authority chief executives, who double as returning officers get paid a handsome bonus for conducting elections. I seem to remember it is in the region of £10,000. They should get off their fat arses and sort this, before it is sorted for them.

Lazy Labour MPs Vote for Longer Holiday

Yesterday evening MPs voted themselves a 12 day break in February - from 10th to the 22nd. Well, I say MPs voted - actually only Labour MPs did. Tories and LibDems voted against. Not a single Labour MP went into the No lobby.

Go figure.

If you want to see how your own MP voted, click HERE.

* The February hald term break is normally one week long.

Oona King: I Want to be an MP Again

My Total Politics colleague Joe Dyke has a bit of a scoop on the Party Lines blog. He reveals that Oona King wants to be an MP again. Or you could interpret her words as hinting at a run for London mayor, I suppose.

Quote of the Day: West Ham Edition

Britain is becoming the West Ham of the world economy –
spiralling debts, living beyond its means,
and about to get a David to take it over and run it prudently.

From my EDP column this week

Mandelson Achieves His FO Dream - Sort Of

Lord Mandelson has finally achieved his dream. For one day only he is taking over Foreign Office responsibilities. Well, in the House of Lords anyway. At 11.30 this morning he will be answering an urgent question from the Conservatives about the shambles of the government's cuts in counter terrorism. Glenys Kinnock made an embarrassing mess of it in the Lords yesterday, when she repeated the PM's statement, so Mandelson has been called on to take over today.

Yet again, he finds himself defending a complete cock up by the Prime Minister. I suppose he must be used to it by now.

UPDATE: Now that's odd. Andrew Neil has just said that Baroness Kinnock replied to the UQ in the House of Lords. Mandelson was definitely down to do it.

Tories Have More BME Candidates Than Labour

Yesterday, Operation Black Vote eulogised about the 30 BME candidates Labour has standing for them at the next election. It was very strange* that the author of the piece, Lester Holloway, made no mention of the fact that at the last election the Conservatives had more BME candidates than Labour (41 to 32), a fact which is probably going to be repeated at the forthcoming election. The Conservatives have selected 38 BME candidates so far. I don't have figures for the LibDems, but if someone else does, let me know.

Here are the Tories...

Spelthorne - Kwasi Kwarteng
North West Cambs - Shailesh Vara
Windsor - Adam Afriyie
Bradford West - Zahid Iqbal
Bristol East - Adeela Shafi
Chippenham - Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones
Dulwich and West Norwood - Kemi Adegoke
Gillingham and Rainham - Rehman Chishti
Hammersmith - Shaun Bailey
Hazel Grove - Annesley Abercorn
Maidstone and The Weald - Helen Grant
Reading West - Alok Sharma
Tooting - Mark Clarke
Twickenham - Deborah Thomas
Witham - Priti Patel
Wolverhampton South West - Paul Uppal
Streatham - Rahoul Bhansali
Burnley - Richard Ali
Bermondsey and Old Southwark - Loanna Morrison
Ealing Southall - Gurcharan Singh
Hackney South - Simon Nayyar
Holborn and St Pancras - George Lee
Brent Central - Sachin Rajput
Birmingham Hodge Hill - Shailesh Parekh
Sedgefield - Neil Mahpatra
Bradford East - Mohammed Riaz
Rochdale - Mudasir Dean
North Tyneside - Gagan Mohindra
Manchester Central - Suhail Rahuja
Warley - Jasbir Parmer
Oldham East and Saddleworth - Kashif Ali
Oldham West and Royton - Kamran Ghafoor
Stoke on Trent Central - Norsheen Bhatti
Ashton-under-Lyme - Seema Kennedy
Leigh - Shazia Awan
Makerfield - Itrat Ali
Bootle - Sohaili Quereshi
Liverpool Riverside - Kegang Wu

I would expect at least 13 of them to be elected, the same number elected for Labour in 2005.

In theory, if BME people make up 8% of the electorate each party ought to be fielding 52 candidates. There are still quite a few selections to go, but it is unlikely any of the parties will reach this number. Of course, the key issue is how many of the candidates are selected in safe or winnable seats. The LibDems have only ever had one ethnic minority MP, Parmjit Gill, who won a by election in Leicester South in 2004. Does anyone know if they have any in winnable seats this time? At least the Conservatives and Labour seem to have a ratio of at least one in three standing in winnable seats.

I'm not very much in favour of ghettoising political candidates in groups like this, but seeing as Operation Black Vote appears to be playing party politics with it*, the other side of the story needs to be put.

Let's just hope PinkNews don't get around to doing the same thing! They might get a shock. I have written in the past that in the next Parliament I believe there will be between 20 and 30 openly gay [God I hate that expression] MPs on the Tory benches. I've no idea what the equivalent figures might be for Labour and the LibDems.

* As Sunder Katwala points out in a comment, I have been unfair to OBV. They did similar articles on the Conservatives and the LibDems some time ago. Apologies.

The Daley Dozen: Wednesday

1. Militant Medical Nurse is not a happy angel. At all.
2. Iain Martin advises David Cameron to mind his manners.
3. Paul Waugh reviews Sir David Omand's evidence to the Iraq Inquiry.
4. Operation Black Vote analyses the 30 BME Labour candidates at the next election.
5. Nick Assinder has a nasty aftertaste from PMQs.
6. ConHome says the Green candidate in Great Yarmouth stands down ... to help the Tory candidate!
7. Lobbydog thought Nick Clegg was going to cry.
8. Biased BBC isn't impressed by the new 5 Live lineup on Sunday mornings. Nor am I. It's puerile.
9. David Gordon has 20 Questions for Peter Robinson.
10. Slugger O'Toole is outraged. Outraged, I say.
11. Party Lines sees a preview of the Mo Mowlam film.
12. Da Fink answers Da Fawkes.

And finally, if you're interested in attending the first of four City Inn/Total Politics Election Question Times in Birmingham on Feb 4th, click HERE. On the panel are Andrew Mitchell, John hemming, Jacqui Smith and Marc Reeves. Watch out for similar events in Manchester, Leeds and London.

Brown: Dam(n)ed by His Own Dysfunctionality

There was a further sign of the dysfunctionality at the heart of Number 10 at PMQs this lunchtime, or perhaps it was a sign of Gordon Brown's own dysfunctionality.

Michael Fabricant raised the urgent matter of the leaking dam which holds back the waters of the Chasewater Reservoir today with the Prime Minister in the House of Commons. For questions like this, it is common to brief Number Ten in advance, so at least the PM knows that an MP is not raising a partisan political matter, but is looking for a helpful reply. But rather than get a concerned answer, Fabricant received a brief and 'insensitive and flip' response despite Gordon Brown being briefed fully in advance that the leak endangers life and could have a lasting effect on the whole of the Midlands. Lichfield District Council officials have told Michael Fabricant that unless the dam is repaired soon, it could have "catastrophic consequences" with loss of life and property and the Midlands canal system running dry.

Michael Fabricant: The 200 year old earthworks dam in my constituency which contains the Chasewater reservoir has started to leak. A recent engineers report stated that if it collapses, scores of lives will be lost and there will be a lasting effect in the midlands. The small district of Lichfield does not have the funds to make the urgent repairs. Will the Prime Minister please use his best endeavours to ensure that the financial burden is spread over the region as a whole?"

The Prime Minister: Of course I will be happy to consider his point although I see that he is making the case for public expenditure.

And that was it.

Michael Fabricant tells me: "This is one of the briefest, crass, insensitive and flip replies that I have ever heard from a Prime Minister to such a serious question. I spoke to his office the previous day so they were fully briefed in advance. Whatever I might think of Tony Blair, he always tried to give detailed and helpful replies to constituency problems especially if he had been briefed and no party political points were being made. I did not make a party-political point and I did brief in advance. Gordon Brown's reply was just plain crass. I will, however, now be writing to the Prime Minister regarding these matters and hope the substantial cost of urgent repairs to the dam won't all have to be born by the 40,000 householders in Lichfield District. I am also seeking further information from the Council regarding the dam's immediate safety."

Gordon Brown had better hope that the dam remains intact, don't you think?

Labour's Desperate Tactics: No 94

Alan Johnson is a Labour politician I respect. Well, I used to. But what are we to make of a politician who comes out with a sentence like this...

"It is clear that David Cameron doesn't care about fighting crime."*

How crass and puerile can you get? He's clearly being advised by someone who has attended the Ed Balls School of Spin. Would even David Cameron's worst enemy believe he doesn't care about fighting crime? I very much doubt it.

This is yet another sign of the desperate tactics Labour will resort to over the coming months.

* p4 Daily Telegraph, 20 Jan
Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless device

The Daley Dozen: Tuesday

1. Jeff Peel wonders if the UUP/Conservative relationship is at breaking point.
2. Adam Boulton found Geoff Hoon's evidence straangely impressive.
3. Alex Massie pays tribute to Bill McLaren.
4. Tory Radio doesn't really care who owns Cadbury and those who do shouldn't buy any US goods.
5. George Eaton thinks Jon Cruddas may stand for London Mayor.
6. Lord Soley interviews Nick Robinson.
7. Hopi Sen on the rise of the 'Bolicy'.
8. The Steamie on some general election games.
9. John Rentoul's obituary of Peter Mandelson.
10. Tom Harris goes into Airplane mode. Stop calling him Shirley.
11. Party Lines talks to Nigel Farage about headgear.
12. Independence Home says UKIP has announced its campaign director for the general election, James Pryor. Er, who?

The Nasty Party, Or One Bad Apple?

Earlier I cheekily blogged about the LibDems little local difficulties in Plymouth. Tonight, Cathy Newman (who we all call 'scoop' nowadays) has the story that the LibDem candidate for Stoke North has had to fall on his sword after sending racist emails. She says the content of the emails is 'unbroadcastable'.

Every party has its nutters. Every party has the odd racist, or homophobe. And when they are discovered they are kicked out, and quite right too. But just look back at LibDem Voice and look at the vicarious thrill they get when they discover a Labour or Tory candidate or politician who has done something like this. They write the story as if it is somehow representative of the whole party.

David Jack is not representative of the LibDems and I am happy to acknowledge that. But let's please have no more holier than thou stories from them about other parties being 'nasty'.

UPDATE: Here's the email. It is worth pointing out that David Jack denies sending it and is alleging that his email account was hacked into.

"...if I was you I would f*** back off to the hills of tora borro (sic), I have your home address, you are f***** sunshine, we shall see who has got balls now you two faced lying f****** paki... your cards f*****... prison awaits you b** boy. Think your (sic) brave, you don't know the line you have crossed you f*** witt (sic) - keep looking over you shoulder theif! (sic)"

And For the Very Latest...

Bercow Issues Clarion Call Over Election Night Counts

Well done John Bercow. Today he basically told the Prime Minister to sort the issue of election night counts. As readers will know, up to one third of local authorities plan to hold their counts on the Friday after the election, giving weasel-worded excuses about the time it takes to process postal votes, the tiredness of the tellers etc. The Speaker has put it very bluntly to national and local political leaders. Sort it. This is what he said in response to a Point of Order by Julian Lewis.

"For my own part, I am a passionate believer in instant, not slow motion, democracy. It seems to me that it is in the interests of the House and the country that the count should take place on the night, and there are two overwhelmingly compelling reasons why: first, I believe that there could be a threat to the security of the ballot if the count is delayed; and, secondly, it seems to me that on the day the election takes place, it should be possible for the count also to take place so that we get the result speedily.

"Frankly, it should not be beyond the wit and sagacity of humankind—or indeed of local authorities—to ensure that that happens. I politely suggest to the House that what is required is not a passive acceptance of the particular views of individual local authority chief executives, but rather an assertion of leadership nationally and politically, at a local level, to achieve what I sense the House is uniting in wishing to see."

So, come on Mr Brown, come on local authority leaders. Do your duty and put these weak minded local authority chief executives (average annual salary around £175,000) in their place.

Hattip ConservativeHome

Fear & Loathing Among Plymouth LibDems

It looks like the true Nasty Party is alive and kicking in Plymouth (that's the LibDems, for the dim among you). Cowley Street has had to step in and shut down the local branch of the LibDems, after two chairmen resigned within five months. Tsk tsk.

More HERE.

Gordon Grandstands Over Yemen Conference

Sir Patrick Cormack asked a PQ yesterday on the Yemen conference Gordon Brown announced in the aftermath of the failed terrorist attack in Detroit. At the time the Prime Ministers said –

There is absolutely no doubt that the conference we will have in London in January, with a Yemen element to it, will be an important means by which we will help the Yemeni authorities who are fighting terrorism to develop the means and the will to do this even more. (Andrew Marr Show 3rd January 2009)

Yet it turns out that the conference is ‘likely to last up to two hours’ and will only be at foreign minister level –

Yemen

Sir Patrick Cormack: To ask the Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs what arrangements have been made for the conference on Yemen which he recently announced. [310932]
Mr. Ivan Lewis: The meeting on Yemen which my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister announced will take place on 27 January 2010, and is likely to last for around two hours. It will be principally at Foreign Minister level. We are in the process of discussing participation and the agenda with key international partners.

So it's not a conference. It's a two hour meeting. And it's for Foreign Ministers, not Presidents and Prime Ministers.

A bit of overselling and grandstanding by Gordon Brown, wouldn't you say?

Advice From Chris Mullin

If you are a parliamentary candidate at the next election, you could do worse than clicking HERE to read Chris Mullin's column in today's Times, where he seeks to give parliamentary aspirants some well meant advice. Here's a taster...

Attend to the needs of your constituents, but don’t overdo it. Some colleagues do relatively little in the House and instead spend every waking hour searching out constituents with problems in order to create the illusion of activity. I advise against this. In any case, it makes very little difference as to whether or not you will be re-elected. Remember, one of the main functions of a backbencher is to hold the executive to account. Something we do imperfectly.

At the outset, you have a fundamental decision to make. Do you want to be constituency-based or Westminster-based? There is no one true path. Everyone’s circumstances vary. The office costs allowance is these days sufficient to enable you to employ two or three people. Some colleagues choose to employ staff at both ends which, in my experience, does not work well. Some, with constituencies nearer London, tend to be based in Westminster. I chose to base my staff entirely in my constituency office, which is open to callers during the week, thereby reducing the pressure on surgeries.

You don’t necessarily need staff in the House. There is a wonderful (and sadly underused) library with brilliant staff who can quickly produce briefings on any subject under the sun.

Be warned. There is a good deal of pointless activity in politics. I urge you to minimise it. Do not confuse busy-ness with effectiveness. Above all, do not neglect your family.

Finally, respect your opponents. Remember, we have the good fortune to live in a mature democracy that, for all its imperfections, is vastly superior to most alternatives. We are not actually trying to kill each other. It is only an election. One side will lose. One side will win. And the loser will live to fight another day.

I hope you find this useful. Good luck.